Pre-Prorogue Poll

H/T for the pdf of the Harris Decima poll on prorogation. The poll was taken well before Harper actually did prorogue, so the results are more theoretical, than indicative of true reaction. The overall thrust, Canadians are "indifferent":

Asked how Canadians would feel if the government were to prorogue
Parliament again, this time until after the Olympics, the plurality of
Canadians (46%) are now indifferent.

To be fair, one can hardly expect any other result to a potential reality. "Indifferent" tells us nothing, apart from a lack of present emotion. What I find interesting, is the "unhappy with" BASELINE segment. Overall, more than double those that expressed an opinion are unhappy, the numbers even more pronounced regionally. When you take out the Conservative western powerbase, you see potential problems in Ontario for example. 39% of Ontarians would be unhappy with proroguing, only 12% happy. That suggests the mere idea is problematic, nevermind where we are now, with mostly negative coverage incorporated. Of note, even amongst Conservative supporters, the unhappy contingent outnumbers the happy.

I don't take much from this poll, for obvious reasons. Let's see where we are in a few weeks, once the reaction is digested. I would describe most of the feedback as worrisome for the government, even criticism from normally supportive sources. With Harper creating a political vacuum, this prorogation debate could well fill the void. This facebook group is becoming impressive, by relative standards. I was just told that the Council of Canadians are actively exploring the protest route, which is slated for January 23rd around the country. I was also told, other like-minded organizations are mobilizing to express their displeasure. On another front, solid word of opposition MP's actively discussing showing up for work on the 25th, people writing to their representatives to push the matter. In other words, there is potential for this to snowball into something significant, something that keeps this issue in the news for weeks to come. If anyone thinks that it doesn't matter, I would highlight the PMO's chosen date for prorogation release- you don't pick that date, without considering the "news" angle.

There is one very, very dangerous word that is creeping into this conversation, political death if you will- ARROGANCE. Should that word become the centerpiece of this debate, then prorogation will hurt this government. The notion of arrogance is generally the first signal that the ground is fertile for a change.