Report From The Hinterlands

With all the usual caveats aside- as well as an acknowledgement that falling Conservative fortunes represent only part of the Liberal equation- these two polls today demonstrate that the prorogue issue is resonating to a certain extent. It also tells us that cynical people holed up in Ottawa offices, who make snap definitive pontifications, aren't always the best "gauge" of what is occurring in the "hinterlands".

The Angus Reid poll is important for a couple of reasons. First, we now can replace the most useless HD poll, done prior to the actual prorogue, that didn't incorporate the fallout. Many of the pundits, and increasingly desperate Conservative apologists, constantly referenced that outdated finding, despite the obvious, so at least this poll denotes more serious feedback. It's an objectively dreadful result for the government, even worse when one scans the regionals. By almost 3-1 Canadians disapprove of the government's decision, almost 40% strongly disagree. A pretty worrisome number, when a mere 19% support the government. Further, even Conservative partisans express noticeable displeasure, the government doesn't even enjoy majority support from the faithful. People have claimed that "process matters" don't translate to the general population, but these strong opinions in this poll suggest otherwise.

The numbers are even more problematic for the government, when you deal with the regionals. Particularly in Ontario, we see a rarely seen gap, 59% disagree, only 17%agree, a full 43% strongly disagree. The Conservatives have a clear perception problem, and this represents an opportunity, if we develop the narrative correctly.

Tied into these result, we get an EKOS poll, which brings a few noteworthy items, not the least of which, the once huge Conservative lead in Ontario has vanished(the last NANOS poll was the first to show the Liberals out front since September). When the gap was wide, I reminded people that Ontario is volatile, a large percentage of soft support ebbs and flows. Factoring in the strong resistance to this prorogue idea, some softening on the torture question, these numbers aren't particularly surprising. I suspect they would look worse for the Conservatives, if the Liberals had more credibility.

Overall, what was a 15% gap a few months ago has been whittled down to a mere 5%. The polls have been pretty static lately, this EKOS poll represents the first serious move, poll to poll, we've seen for months. Graves articulates the obvious, the prorogue question actually is hurting the government (that procalamation completely supported by AR). In fact, the Conservatives have lost all of the gains made last September, back to square one. The lead is only maintained, because the Liberals haven't full capitalized. In addition, a little discussed portion of this poll shows that disapproval of the government is now consistently the highest it has been since the brunt of the recession, right direction the lowest.

I would catergorize the above as an opportunity for the Liberals to develop the arrogant narrative, as well as a chance to reacquire the confidence of voters. There is a disconnect, wherein the Conservatives enjoy a voter "buffer" because the alternatives aren't attractive. More evidence of voters looking for a place to park, the fact the Greens score so high with EKOS, even above the more traditional "protest" NDP port in two key provinces. For the Liberals, build a compelling brand and we can maximize Conservative misfortunes.

As an aside, my first comment, when the idea of prorogue was floated:

Mark my words,if true this will be worst political move of Harper's career.

Non-prominent citizen- 11:00 PM Dec 14th, 2009

At least that prediction is still open for debate, at this point ;) Canadians HATE arrogance.