Thursday, April 08, 2010

EKOS

The new EKOS poll shows the Conservatives with a decent lead over the Liberals, as Ontario swings back in their favor:
Conservatives: 33.6 (+1.4)
Liberals: 27.3 (+0.3)
NDP: 15.9 (-0.1)
Green: 11.7 (-1.0)
Bloc Quebecois: 9.6 (+0.6) - 39.4 (+3.5) in Quebec
Other: 1.8 (-1.3)

Over a 6% lead for the Conservatives, the biggest we've seen from EKOS since prorogation. One item of note, despite the Liberals 2008 election like result, the Conservatives are still nowhere near there vote tally, neither the NDP for that matter. That does speak to a certain frustration with all the main parties, and it also tells me that unless something changes the next election will produce even lower turnout.

In volatile Ontario, the Conservatives have regained a sizeable lead:
Ontario (MoE 6.64)
Conservatives: 39.5 (+4.2)
Liberals: 31.8 (-1.0)
NDP: 16.0 (+0.6)
Green: 12.0 (-1.8)
Other: 0.8 (-1.9)

That's a bad number for the Liberals, which we haven't seen for months. Ontario can move with the slightest breeze, but it's hard to take much solace.

Coyne's column earlier this week highlighted a word I've been using for months, BOLD. What these polls tell me, the Liberal have no inherent traction, any momentum a by-product of others behavior. The only way to truly review an ailing bland(that was a typo, but actually it works) is to really "make a splash", otherwise the odds are long and a two election strategy is realistic. With an economic recovery taking hold, there will be no external help, the Liberals must take some risks, step on a few toes and provoke some emotion from the sleepy electorate. Not reckless, but somewhat provocative is clearly required. Go bold, or they will stay at home, the numbers couldn't be clearer IMHO.

5 comments:

Frunger said...

A low turnout is a good thing for the party with a better election machine and GOTV effort.

I think it's well known that the Conservatives have the edge in that category.

You're probably right about a lower turnout (as has been the trend) then more good news for the conservatives, more bad news for participation in democracy.

Libs should avoid chasing the youth vote as they often do with talk about education (Provincial responsibility anyway). The 18-25 crowd doesn't show up anyway.

jmcgivern said...

How BOLD are we talking here? BOLD enough to bring back the Green Shift? Nothing could be more bold than that. The 150 conference had people talking about it again it seems. Its a great idea, the BC Libs are still alive despite it. What can we learn from that? Perhaps without the albatross of Dion's "perceived" issues this could actually sail this time around. If the talk about doing what we must do from the 150 conference holds any weight then maybe we could rejig the Green Shift, sell it as a stimulus package which really it is. This time maybe the entire mechanics of the party could get behind it. I don't believe the Green Shift lost the election last time. The fact that the party as a whole could not get behind Dion is what lost the election. The Green Shift was the only thing that gave the party any definitive issue to represent - something that seems lacking recently. Call it the Carbon Exchange or something.

Annie... said...

Sask/Man is far out!

Steve V said...

I'd love to bring the green shift back, but it has a tarnish on it that will be hard to shake. I clapped in Montreal everytime it was mentioned, but on this one, I can understand hesitation.

Dame said...

Greens 12% ???????????????????
insane ! what those people really expect ?????????