Thursday, April 15, 2010

"Neck And Neck"

The new EKOS shows a significant shift week to week, largely a result of a huge swing in Ontario. Last week, EKOS gave the Conservatives a widening 6% lead, the biggest we'd seen from them since pre-prorogue. This week, EKOS shows a statistical tie, the Conservatives with a slim 2% advantage. Only one poll, so caution is supreme, but it would appear the Guergis mess is hurting the government:

The Tories are the preferred party of 31.4 per cent of decided voters who responded to the survey, with the Liberals close behind at 29 per cent. The New Democratic Party took 16.4 per cent, the Green Party 11.1 per cent and the Bloc Québécois 8.8 per cent.

Tory support was down 2.2 percentage points from last week, when the party drew 33.6 per cent support, while the Liberals were up 1.7 points from 27.3. The NDP’s numbers rose slightly from last week’s 15.9 per cent, while the Greens and Bloc each fell about half a point.

Last week, I mentioned that Ontario can swing with the slightest political breeze. When you look at the regionals, you see that the change this week is largely a result of Ontario(last week in brackets):
Libs 36.6%(31.8%)
Cons 31.1%(39.5%)
NDP 16.5%(16%)
Greens 11.9%(12%)

As polling goes, the 8.4% Conservative drop is seismic. This volatility, while encouraging for the Liberals, also shows just how fickle the Ontario voter, support is very superficial. That said, this number alone will send shutters through the PMO.

EKOS also finds the approval/disapproval numbers trending against the government.

I wasn't entirely convinced that this scandal would really move the numbers, primarily because it has an "isolated" feel, which doesn't necessarily translate to the party as a whole. I'd like to see more results, but it would appear I was wrong, because this is a big move for EKOS, outside of normal week to week fluctuations.


RuralSandi said...

I asked a friend, who is/WAS a stauch Conservative why he's turned away from Harper and if it was the Guergis issue. He said it was the accumulation of issues - detainee, Guergis, secrecy, laziness (referring the the constant recycling of policies and crime bills).

He said the Guergis issue alone wouldn't have changed his mind - it's the rest of the issues and added - so many failed files.

I asked him if he'd vote Liberal - he's giving it thought. The NDP for him is totally out and the Green are too "green experience-wise".

I also asked if Adscam would turn him away from the Liberals and he said "well, Ignatieff and most of the Liberal caucus weren't there and/or involved at the time"

penlan said...

That's good news RuralSandi. I think those Conservatives who can think for themselves, & can connect all the dots, are going to move away in droves from Harper & his faux Cons.

RuralSandi said...

It is something in this case - if you mention Trudeau's name he nearly has a nervous breakdown.

He hasn't committed to the Liberals yet, but is giving it thought.

DL said...

I'm not surprised by these numbers. Its not that people would turn away from the Tories because of Guergis alone - i think that it goes into a larger context of a government obsessed with secrecy and manipulation etc... and this is just the latest reminder of it.

penlan said...

"It is something in this case - if you mention Trudeau's name he nearly has a nervous breakdown."

LOL - oh my, such a reaction years after the fact. Poor guy.

Agree with you DL. So many issues with this Govt. & they are coming together now & making a huge pile of negativity, lies, lack of transparency, arrogance, etc. . Not just one issue, as you said, but the whole "kit & kaboodle", so to speak.

Tof KW said...

RuralSandi said...
It is something in this case - if you mention Trudeau's name he nearly has a nervous breakdown.

I don't want to get into a debate on PET as he (understandably) commands much reverence within the LPC, but you'll find his picture when you look up 'dirty politician' within the conservative dictionary. - I imagine its Mulroney is in the Liberal edition :)

Your friend may be having a bit of an epiphany Sandi, realising that the CPC are not the conservatives of 30 years ago. Now if they can get past that, then maybe they can realize the LPC is likewise not the same party it was under Trudeau’s era.

I admit I’m perplexed by this Guergis affair as well. It is too early to say if these polls are any indication of some tipping point, and I highly doubt they are. As Steve posted here, this shift is all due to the fickle undecided Ontario voters who can move with the slightest breeze.

I’m actually inclined to say Harper did the right thing here in admitting he goofed with Guergis (by canning her) and sticking her into the back benches while the RCMP investigates the matter. His only mistake is in not stating the nature of the accusations against her that led to this action. Silence only breeds further speculation and suspicion, and we all know what the media do in a vacuum. Again this is something the great chessmaster should know.

It’s all the media speculation and sensualisation that is driving the poll movement, and the magic number to watch here is 30% folks. If a few polls after this consistently show the CPC at 30%, they’ve hit their core. Anything going below that number means more than Sandi’s one friend are now having that same epiphany.

Steve V said...

Another caution here, we've seen this story before, and it doesn't detract from my simple thesis. When the Cons stub their toes, the numbers move, but it generally doesn't last after things calm down. A primary reason, not latent love for the Cons, but an apprehension with the alternative. Liberals don't draw votes, the Cons tend to repel them.