Monday, April 26, 2010

Wow

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think we've ever seen a poll that pegs Liberal and Conservative support BELOW 30% at the same time. Harris Decima:
The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey indicates support for the Tories has slipped to 29 per cent - the first time in a year that the governing party has dipped below the 30 per cent threshold.

And the beneficiary appears to be the NDP, not the Liberals.

While the Grits remain stalled at 27 per cent, New Democrat support has reached 20 per cent - a level of support it hasn't enjoyed since shortly after the last election in October 2008.

The survey was conducted April 15-25, as the government was reeling from allegations of unethical - and possibly illegal - conduct by former cabinet minister Helena Guergis and her husband, former Tory MP Rahim Jaffer.

The telephone poll of 2,014 Canadians is considered accurate within a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, 19 times in 20.

Conservatives down 3% poll to poll, but the Liberals are down 2%. Great poll for the NDP, up 3% to 20% (I'd wait for others before declaring a orange wave, because previously polling shows the NDP below their 2008 total, on a fairly consistent basis).

A pretty pathetic showing for the two main parties, both below 30% and further indication that the public has no affection for either at the moment.

26 comments:

Anthony said...

Interesting to see what Layton does on gun control if his MPs waffle.

Polytechnique is in Mulcair's riding...

Tof KW said...

Polytechnique is in Mulcair's riding

I didn't realize that. If the NDP doesn't wip the vote the attack ads for the next election in Outremont practically write themselves. Sucks to be him!

Oh, welcome back Steve. Hope you & your son had a great adventure up north.

Steve V said...

Thanks, we did :) Four moose, lots of brook trout, great weather, all good.


Hebert mentioned that this long gun registry vote could kill the NDP in Quebec. Sure will be interesting to watch.

ChrisInKW said...

I look forward to seeing Mr. Cauchon in Ottawa.

Tof KW said...

Brook Trout, yummy!
- - -
Chris, looks like we're both from the tri-city area.
- - -

Back to your original post Steve, likewise I don't remember a poll showing the CPC lower than 30% for a long time now. Not sure but those are Martin-era numbers.

Not sure I completely trust that number either, coupled with the NDP at 20%. Hate to say it but I do believe that Lib number somewhat in the 27%-28% range.

Steve V said...

I don't really doubt the Lib number either. The poll might be a bit off, but it's still noteworthy.

DL said...

The 20% for the NDP is good news, but its not all that out of synch. with other polls either. The last two Angus Reid polls have had the NDP at 20% as well.

As for Outremont - Mulcair supports the gun registry - that's all that matters. In any case, I suspect that the Tory bill to scrap it will fail anyways - so there will be no issue.

Steve V said...

Oh DL, you don't get to just pick and choose. If you look at all the polls in totality, you're below the 2008 total and you'd lose seats, been that way for months and months. Now, this is a very good result for the NDP, so let's see if others show a similar trend, if not it's a one off.

The registry will only fail if the NDP supports it.

DL said...

For the Hoeppner bill to pass, the Tories would need 10 extra votes from non-Tory MPs. Assuming that Ignatieff succeeds in getting 100% of the Liberal caucus to show up and vote NO and Duceppe does the same - I predict that a few NDPers will support the bill but it won't be enough to pass the bill and the gun registry will live on.

Saskboy said...

How long will it take to eat 4 moose?

Steve V said...

:)

Steve V said...

I guess that answers the question:

"In my memory, I can never recall both major political parties being under 30 per cent of the popular vote – ever. To me, that's the stunning part. ... It's a reflection of the general disgust of the major options that are available to most voters " Allan Gregg

Steve V said...

Pdf is available here:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/guergis-jaffer-scandal-weighs-on-tories-in-poll/article1547151/


The Libs are actually up 36-31% in Ontario, with the NDP scoring higher than they have since the last election. What is KILLING the Libs is their falling support in Quebec, HD puts them at 21%, a level were are starting to see on a regular basis. The Libs are also falling B.C, but really it's the NDP that seem to be getting traction.

Graves says voters are disgusted with both parties, they lose to "neither" and "none of the above" on key issue question competence.

DL said...

Quebec and BC are also two provinces with ridiculously unpopular Liberal provincial governments.

Greg said...

I think you are on to something about BC an Ontario. Dalton's flip flop on sex ed and the HST in BC are not good news for Liberals. Layton could also be the beneficiary of voters looking at Britain and saying, "Hell ya, we hate our big parties too!". Now, how long that will last is anyone's guess.

Steve V said...

"Quebec and BC are also two provinces with ridiculously unpopular Liberal provincial governments."

Neither of which have the slightest affiliation with federal Liberals, of which voters are more than aware. I don't think that's the reason. A bit more of a corelation in Ontario, but the fed Libs do well here, it's the only glimmer, so...

DL said...

A Liberal is a Liberal is a Liberal. British Columbians - the next BC election isn't until 2013 - but if you really want to send a message to Gordon Campbell - flush every single one of his federal Liberal cousins down the toilet in the next federal election!

Steve V said...

DL, if the voters can't distinguish, why don't the federal Libs have a ton of seats in B.C and Que? I mean, why didn't we ride that wave in the last elections, when ummm, they won big mandates? Such a crap, simplistic argument.

Marpman said...

people in BC know that the Provincial Liberals are really the Socreds....not rocket science.
Gordo is committed to this one...a live or die move and given its popularity might be enough to lose seats. But, people know the other choice is the NDP and they won't go near electing James....so he will hang on, with maybe a token message in swing ridings.

Tof KW said...

DL said...
A Liberal is a Liberal is a Liberal.

Funny hearing a dipper come up with a line like this, especially when the lines between the federal NDP and its provincial wings are much blurrier than those of Canada's 2 major parties.

Aside from the name, there is little in common between the federal Libs and the Quebec and BC wings - both of which are (currently) more conservative that the federal counterparts. I'll extend that to the Sask & Alberta wings too, even though not in power just look at some of their policy statements. I'd say you have something with the ONT Libs, they are close on policy to their federal counterparts.

BTW - on this topic of an NDP rise, I agree with others here that one much watch an aggregate of polls over time to see if any trends continue. But this particular one should help you guys smile a bit.

Marpman said...

In Quebec it is more pronounced with Charest coming from the federal Conservative party.
When the BC Liberals emerged they were not as right leaning..but Campbell has taken them in that direction most forcefully.

Tof KW said...

Totally unrelated, but this hit the CBC at around 12:20. Milliken is set to rule on the question of privilege today after QP.

popthestack said...

The silver lining might be that if people are really fed up with the choice between red and blue and the NDP get to the same level of national support we'll have exactly the same conundrum now facing the UK. They have a third party doing better than the others but guaranteed to get less seats. That's just what would happen to the NDP. Even if they were equal with the Liberals they wouldn't get more seats than them because they are more spread out.

If we have a good example of the UK dealing with this problem intelligently by instituting electoral reform it might help us to have the same national debate.

lma1 said...

A Liberal minority with an NDP lead opposition would be a refreshing change.

Just curious Steve, did you seriously shoot four moose in one weekend? Say it wasn't so.

Steve V said...

No no, we saw four moose. Son was very, very excited.

lma1 said...

That's a relief!

Of course I meant NDP "led" not "lead" opposition. A Freudian typo?