Sunday, March 06, 2011

Two Election Strategy

I've made reference to this realistic strategy before, apparently some in Ottawa also quietly subscribe to the view. Anything can happen in an election, I will forever believe "victory", in some form or another, is possible, but when you move to simple probabilities, one must entertain other scenarios.

The incumbent advantage is formidable, without a massive "kick the bums out" mentality evident in the land, a tall order for a party with 77 seats at present to outright take power. I believe apathy reigns, but I'm not convinced "kick the bums out" is there, a prerequisite for massive seat shifts- always has been, always will be. More likely, a coalition scenario, but when you run the numbers, that scenario requires a very strong campaign, possible but not sure about probable. There is also the Conservative majority scenario, but I'm not buying, in fact I put odds of that well below a Liberal minority when push comes to shove.

If I'm the Liberals I shoot for the brass ring, but also keep my eye on the distant horizon as part of the ultimate plan. Right now Harper has a huge money, organizational advantage, we all recognize this fact, and it isn't something to fluff off. This pre-writ blitz once again shows that money is important, it has power, a double whammy when you consider our restraints vs their ability to toss it around with no consequence. The Conservatives have objective advantages in concrete ways that are undeniable.

I think it probable that the Liberals improve their seat tally in the next election. I am quietly confident that we will perform better, and I still maintain no real "love in the land" for this vanilla government. I think Liberals can make gains, and big picture, this election can set us up for governing the next time around.

A weakened Harper mandate is incredibly important, it really is majority or bust for him. If the Conservatives return to Ottawa back in 2006 seat terrority, then the superficial united front will begin to crack, a whole range of possibilities, not to mention the added drag that time provides for any government. This is probably Duceppe's last campaign, a good chance Layton's, after this election, Ottawa will go through seismic change. Whether or not Ignatieff survives irrelevant, but a larger caucus, a sense that 2008 was bottom, people can realistically start thinking about taking government. More money in the coffers from votes cast, more incumbents ourselves, a host of reasons to see a party poised to be that alternative.

Again, I'm not saying we have no chance in this election, history tells us we CLEARLY DO, anything is possible. That said, I'd still have one eye on the longer road, which could involve an incremental strategy and possibly might explain why many remain election "hawks" despite the perceived long odds. What constitutes "winning" a subjective interpretation.

15 comments:

Dan F said...

When Layton leaves, his likely replacement will be Mr Mulcair, which is news that should make every Federalist happy. With Mulcair running the NDP, and the Bloc without Duceppe, there is every chance for a game changer with the NDP winning over large numbers of Bloc voters. While we're looking 2 or 3 elections away, what would that scenario look like with someone like an experienced Dominic LeBlanc heading up the Liberals? I'm optimistic for the centre-left federalist parties in the long term, but still concerned for our country in the short term if we have an election now.

Gene Rayburn said...

An experienced Dominic Leblanc? You mean the one we have there is a brand spanking new clone?

Oh the pain.

Kirk said...

Is it really a "strategy" or just an acceptance that it can quite reasonably take 2 elections for the Liberals to come from 77 of 308 seats to a plurality in the HoC?

Tom said...

Your strategy ignores the very real possibility that the Consevatives increase their seats and the Liberals finish with even fewer.The Liberal Party needs renewal. It took years and a major loss for the conservatives to become the current party.
The Liberals have to rebuild and stop papering over the cracks. Maybe a major loss in the next election would be the best thing that could happen to them.

Steve V said...

Ummm, I mentioned that scenario in the post. I believe, and this is my opinion despite the "buzz", that there is little chance of that happening. I think a majority is less likely than an outright Liberal win. Call me crazy, but feel free to copy and paste for later referral :)

Steve V said...

Maybe "acceptance" is a better word, but come a campaign, where to put resources, emphasize, could very well become an outright strategy.

Fred from BC said...

Steve V said...

Ummm, I mentioned that scenario in the post. I believe, and this is my opinion despite the "buzz", that there is little chance of that happening. I think a majority is less likely than an outright Liberal win. Call me crazy, but feel free to copy and paste for later referral :)


My opinion hasn't changed (I still agree with Tom, sorry...). That said, if the Liberals do increase their seat count they will probably take those seats from the NDP and not the Conservatives.

Realistically, though...who do you see as the next Liberal leader? Who would you *like* to see?

Tof KW said...

That said, if the Liberals do increase their seat count they will probably take those seats from the NDP and not the Conservatives.

Kitchener-Waterloo was won by the CPC by only 50 votes in 2008. Kitchener Centre was won by 339 votes. Don't be surprised when the LPC takes these both back next election.

You seem to forget how many ridings in Ontario you won with less than 1000 votes.

Tof KW said...

Realistically, though...who do you see as the next Conservative leader? Who would you *like* to see?

For me:
- Bernard Lord
- Danny Williams (stop laughing, I'm serious)
- Jim Prentice

Unlike Harper, all the above could easily win a majority.

Morakon said...

Hey Steve,

The Hill Times has an article stating the Liberals might try and get in a non confidence motion before the budget. I think it's a great idea to try and frame an election question since the budget probably with have nothing toxic in it. You're thoughts.

Steve V said...

Ha. Just did a post on it. Like it a lot.

Steve V said...

Fred

I have gone through all the ridings and I see tons of opportunity to take seats from the Conservatives. No offence to Dion, but I am quite confident Ignatieff will translate better in Ontario and we will see some seats come back.

I'm not entertaining next Lib leaders, and I would also say you guys might be looking for one as well ;) Majority or bust for big guy.

Fred from BC said...

Steve V said...

I have gone through all the ridings and I see tons of opportunity to take seats from the Conservatives.


I don't see it (not with Ignatieff at the helm, anyway), but I've been wrong before. We'll see...


I'm not entertaining next Lib leaders, and I would also say you guys might be looking for one as well ;) Majority or bust for big guy.


Stephen Harper has increased his seat count in every election since he was CA leader, so there is no desire to replace him. And if for some reason he *was* replaced, wouldn't that be worse for you Liberals? Shouldn't you actually be cheering for Harper to stay on as leader in the same way that we Conservatives wish you would replace Ignatieff with Rae (or even fantasize about replacing him with Justin Trudeau)?...;)

Fred from BC said...

Tof KW said...


You seem to forget how many ridings in Ontario you won with less than 1000 votes.


Nope. But we are poised to take even more seats in Ontario (including one or two in Toronto?) and we are also well aware of the candidates like Volpe, Easter, Dosanhj, etc who won by small margins (22 votes for Ujjal); one of the Blogging Tories (Iceman?) has been doing a series on vulnerable Liberals that illustrates how their vote percentages have been going down.

Again, we'll see...

Fred from BC said...

Tof KW said...

For me:
- Bernard Lord
- Danny Williams (stop laughing, I'm serious)
- Jim Prentice



Lord would be a great choice, as would Prentice, but I can't take Danny seriously, sorry.


Unlike Harper, all the above could easily win a majority.


Then like I said to Steve, you should hope Harper stays...