Thursday, November 30, 2006

Devastating Dion Poll Numbers

I'm not sure how anyone can spin these numbers for Dion, other than devastating:
Meanwhile, a poll of 500 Quebecers conducted Nov. 25 to 26 by the Survey Centre at Carleton University's School of Journalism and Communication, found that Liberal supporters consider Michael Ignatieff to be the candidate who would make the best prime minister, and the most likely to win the next federal election against Conservative leader Stephen Harper.

The poll was released on Thursday.

The poll found that 42 per cent felt Ignatieff would make the best PM, ahead of Bob Rae at 34 per cent, Stephane Dion at 17 per cent and Gerard Kennedy at three per cent. About 4 per cent were undecided.

And 38 per cent said Ignatieff was most likely to win the next election, while 35 per cent said Rae, 17 per cent Dion, and 3 per cent Kennedy. About 7 per cent were undecided.

Why I use the word devasting? Dion isn't even close to his two main Quebec rivals, embarrassingly behind in fact. The idea of electing a Quebecer, who lacks support in his home province, defies logic. Actually, this poll is in line with other polling of Liberals, wherein Dion consistently scores well behind on electability.

Liberals aren't electing a good soldier. Liberals aren't electing someone on pedigree. Liberals are electing someone who can become Prime Minister. These Quebec numbers should alarm everyone, because if Dion can't win in Quebec, then Liberals lose. It is already conventional wisdom that a Dion-led Liberal Party might have some challenges within English Canada as a result of Quebecer fatigue. If you accept that premise, and I am not suggesting it insurmountable by any means, and couple that with weakness in Quebec, Dion looks like a brutal choice.

Everyone likes Dion, I like Dion, but delegates had better make sure they look at the big picture. Quebecers know Stephane Dion, there is little room for movement. With this fact in mind, coupled with the sad polling, it begs the question- are we electing an honorable leader of the opposition, or are we interested in stopping Stephen Harper? In my mind, the country can't afford a prolonged Tory reign, and this should be the primary consideration this weekend. The francophone from Quebec, that lags far behind the others in his home province. Huh?


Steve V said...

It just so happens that this poll highlights the already know challenges for Dion in his home province, despite people's attempt to dismiss the concern. Hey, ignore stuff like this is you want, but I think it entirely relevant to the discussion.

Anonymous said...

Actually its devasting for Kennedy - 3% and he's in 3rd place?

Anonymous said...

500 people does not a nation make. I have a problem with polls and who conducts them on people's behalf because of the way they word the questions.

With the strength of all candidates, Quebec can come back to the Red.

I wouldn't call these results devastating. I'd call them one poll at one time. By the time a spring/summer election roles around, Dion will have the support of all Liberals.

Let's keep it realistic.

Steve V said...

"By the time a spring/summer election roles around, Dion will have the support of all Liberals."

True enough, but there is no denying that polling of Liberals consistently show that they don't think Dion can win. I see that as a warning sign, especially when Dion is everyone's apparent "second choice".


From everything I have heard Dion's delegates have shown up in great force. This might be a question of early proximity, but unless you have any evidence, I will go with the delegate registration to date, which shows strong support.

Jeff said...

Steve, it's a poll of 500 people. I could show you a handful of polls that say the opposite.

Steve V said...


One thing all the polls of Liberals show, Dion trails on electability.

BTW, I just heard on CPAC that Dion currently has 50% of delegates registered, while Kennedy and Dion are around a third, so Dion looks to have ample support showing up.

Sorry to hear 1 person, 1 vote failed today. I saw Cherniak on tv arguing against the motion.

Jeff said...

Actually Steve, there was a large sample Environics poll that had him second behind Rae in electability. If I have a chance tomorrow I'll find you a link. Anyway, polls are for dancing. :)