Friday, March 07, 2008

Cadman Poll

Ipsos poll on the Cadman affair, which reveals Canadians don't think much of Harper's legal threats, nor do they believe nothing occured:
"The big problem Harper has is that 44 per cent of the population think the Conservatives did offer something to Cadman," Mr. Bricker said in an interview

The story doesn't give us the poll pdf, so you can't see how many believe the Conservatives, or the "don't know/no answer" percentages, but the fact that Bricker says "big problem" suggests the majority that answered believe something was offered. More numbers:
About 29 per cent said they did not believe that Mr. Harper was unaware of the alleged offer and that another 22 per cent have not yet decided whether to believe Mr. Harper or the Cadman family, who maintain the offer was made.

Further proof that the public thinks something needs to be investigated:
Almost one-third of respondents said they favoured a public investigation led by a third party, such as the Commons Speaker or ethics commissioner, while 31 per cent said an investigation by the RCMP would be the most appropriate course of action.

Ten per cent said the daily question period in the Commons was the best way to get to the bottom of the allegations, while six per cent said the best course of action would be to leave it to the media to flush out the truth.

On the question of taking the Liberals to court, the vast majority think Harper is out of line:

Only three in 10 Canadians think Prime Minster Stephen Harper would be right to sue Stephane Dion and other Liberals for publishing the allegations on the party's official website.

On the question of how to deal with the allegations, a solid majority of those polled - 62 per cent - said "these matters should be kept out of the courts."

No party numbers released, although Bricker said voter impact has yet to be impacted. Given the Liberal performance, it's hard to isolate the impact of this scandal.

Bricker does say, moving forward:
"But unless the prime minister has a better story than the one that he has, it's just going to get worse,"

The really good news, and I think this indicative of how Canadians feel, the complete rejection of Harper's libel threats. If people believed these charges were baseless, then they would have more sympathy for Harper's predicament, and his response. The fact they fully side with the Liberals on this score, speaks to a certain amount of believability to the charges. These type of results might give Harper second thoughts on whether to proceed.

At the very least, the above poll(commissoned for Canwest, one that it's own reporters say tends "to over-estimate Conservative support") supports the idea of pressing this issue further, Canadians seem to want further inquiry, seem to have doubts about the government's story. These type of findings provide the opposition with plenty of latitude to proceed, the public on side, an element of moral authority.


Anonymous said...

People complain about the terrible cost of these investigations. Well here's a solution.

License the Harper Tory Party to one of them there reality shows, and the royalties will cover 3, 5 or however many investigations are needed.

Steve V said...

"People complain about the terrible cost of these investigations."

Harper could save everybody a lot of money if he would just answer the questions, instead of "hiding behind the skirt of the legal system" as Travers noted.

Karen said...

These type of findings provide the opposition with plenty of latitude to proceed, the public on side, an element of moral authority.

Exactly. That is why patience is a virtue, ;).

Anonymous said...

Exactly. That is why patience is a virtue, ;).

Exactly. But my impression is that political bloggers are not a particularly patient group.

wilson said...

"hiding behind the skirt of the legal system"

paid for by the CPC,

where as the LPC prefers to use taxpayer dollars to lauch witch hunts, for their personal gain, via parliamentary committees.

When Mulroney did NOT defend himself by taking Stevie Cameron, Fifth Estate, LPC to court with libel suits, the above mentioned said ''that proves he's guilty, if he was innocent, he would have sued us''.

When PMSH DOES threaten libel, msm and LPC say ''why's he hiding behind the courts, he must be guilty of something'' .

RuralSandi said...

Speaking of Mulroney - Mulroney doesn't want an inquiry. Why the thoughtful man wants to save taxpayers money - really. If that is so true and given the fact he admitted taking money and he has lied - why isn't this thoughtful man offering the $2.1 million back to the taxpayers? Selective thoughtfulness.

Dion - perhaps this will be a case of good things happen to those who wait.

Gayle said...

"When PMSH DOES threaten libel, msm and LPC say ''why's he hiding behind the courts, he must be guilty of something'' ."

FYI - there is a big difference between a letter of intent and filing a lawsuit. Harper has not filed a lawsuit and I doubt he will. If he does then all he will really accomplish is to have this whole affair in the spotlight much longer.

Of course, he might file one before an election so he can tell reporters that he cannot comment when asked about the issue, but as we see from the above poll that is not going to make him look good with the voters.

RuralSandi said...


Too cute by half
Adam Radwanski, 06/03/08 at 4:20 PM EST

In the same Question Period that Jack Layton calls for the head of his chief of staff, Stephen Harper praises the NDP leader for asking good questions.

Naturally, this was in the context of the Liberals not asking good questions. One is left to draw two conclusions:

1.) If the Prime Minister is enthusiastic about questions on the NAFTA leak, and angry about questions on the Cadman affair, that's a pretty good indication which topic the opposition should be focusing on. (Hint: not NAFTA)

2.) If you're the leader of an opposition party, and the Prime Minister is saying nice things about you in Question Period, it's pretty obvious you're not doing your job properly.

Calgary Junkie said...

Stephen Harper thinks he was libeled, and one of the top libel lawyers (according to Kinsella) agrees with him.

That informed opinion of two highly intelligent people caries a heck of a lot more weight than what a poll result.

Besides which, this all becomes hugely more interesting, as the court case approaches.

Gayle said...

I am so tired of everyone saying this "top lawyer" agrees Harper has been libelled.

Let me tell you something about lawyers - they do not have to agree with their clients in order to accept their money. A lawyer who only represents the innocent likely has to take a second job to pay the mortgage. The mere fact this lawyer sent a letter of intent means nothing more than Harper retained this lawyer to send a letter of intent.

In my experience, lawyers who claim they have never lost a case more often than not maintain that record by selling out their clients' interests by settling when they should have fought (by "never lost a case" he means "has never lost a trial"). If he is like every other lawyer in Canada he has settled more cases than he has litigated.

In any event, I suspect Harper wants to stay PM more than he wants a few thousand dollars from Dion et al. For that reason I am confident he is more concerned about the perception than being "right".

RuralSandi said...

I just saw Craig Oliver on CTV Newsnet and apparently on CTV's Question Period tomorrow he's going to have a surprise guest with a surprise announcement and a reason for's going to be interesting.

Gayle said...

sandi - Joanne is claiming that a conservative is joining the liberals, which would be shocking unless it is not an MP or it is Bill Casey.

Anonymous said...


I see your gonna chew this bone for awhile. Hoping to get another few people to vote LPC next election?

Good luck. Really. That's what the LPC is all about. Spin, twist and get elected. I'll bet you are just tickled pink that the Liberal performance in the house is being pretty much ignored by the MSM during the Naftagate, Cadmangate media feeding frenzy.

Forget the polls and think about good governance. Then explain McTeague's little fun and games.

I've been told, this Liberal haha will cost Canadian taxpayers half a billion dollars a year. Feeling good about that?

Back to Cadman. I've said my piece in previous posts. I believe I linked this as an equivalency to Stronach and Martin. Let's add one more. Your looking for an insurance company that would have insured Chuck Cadman. If you can find it, I will then equate Martin/Stronach with Harper/Cadman.


Anonymous said...

PLEASE...PLEASE...PLEASE make this an election issue.
Make anything an election issue. Liberals keep thinking most Canadians are represented in polling questions.
The real poll right now is overwhelming. The Conservatives have at least 5 times as many actual grass roots supporters contributing money.

burlivespipe said...

Tomm, the talking point of 'no insurance company would do this' seems to think the Canadian public is stupid. We all know that an offer of a $1million insurance policy could just be the equivalent of 'financial considerations' ie a check, deposited in your wife's name, upon your death.
We've witnessed your glorified so-called leader already buying out candidates (see Riddell, Alan) and also using a slippery ethical slope when it comes to mixing electoral power and bribery (see Grewal, Germant, or botched entrapment).
When you've used up the 'Mike Duffy gets answers not even spouses and children of MPs can hear' defence, maybe Harper should just come out and tell us exactly what 'financial considerations' for a dying man who had no chance of running in another election means?
After that, scrub yourself down because you're covered in your leader's filth.

Anonymous said...

Seems like the Liberals and BQ may be alone at trying to get to the bottom of the Cadman offer.

An NDP adviser explained: "Damaging Harper and the Conservatives on ethical issues like the Cadman mess mainly helps the Grits, and that's not in our gameplan."

Tomm said...


I don't need to scrub myself down, because unlike some LPC supporters and defense of their leadership, I don't give this government blanket support. In fact, I don't support offering Cadman money or any inducement for his vote, including campaign help.

This whole thing is pretty dirty, but what you are failing to acknowledge is that this is "dust" compared to the slop from the Stronach Affair that then sitting PM, Paul Martin wallowed in.

In fact, I recall a wonderfully grinchy smirk on his face.

I think You and your Liberal supporting colleagues are the ones needing a good scrub. Perhaps the Justice Committee will oblige. Isn't it lovely that both Belinda and Paul are wonderfully alive to testify to success, rather than second hand memory from an unsuccessful bribe.

Don't mistake political banter with personal attacks.


Anonymous said...

Tomm, If there is evidence that Martin engaged in or encouraged criminal activity, then a investigation should be called. Meanwhile, there is hard evidence (a tape) that Harper did and so he should be investigated, in any case.

There is nothing subtle here, if there is evidence that a Prime Minister has broken the law, he should be investigated and, even in the case where it can not be proven beyond doubt, he still needs to answer to the public.

Gayle said...


The reason you are seen as so very partisan is because you say things like the Stronach matter is somehow worse than offering a dying man a bribe.

If you seriously think giving someone a cabinet post for crossing the floor is the moral equivalency of suggesting a dying man, who was known to be concerned about the financial state of his family, commit a criminal offence by accepting a bribe in return for his vote, that says a lot about you.

Tomm said...


Nothing could be further from the truth. I am appalled that anybody offered Cadman something for his vote. Something that allows his family to benefit after his demise and also in some way to be stealing from some insurance company makes it doubly bad.

Chuck Cadman should have voted based on his gut.

There is no evidence to say that is what happened. Read that last sentence again. Even though he (may have) rebuffed requests from the CPC for his vote, he voted with the government to let the budget pass.

Why would he have done that? Because he thought it was a good budget? There is no clear evidence to suggest he thought so. He was a former Reformer. what do you think?

Yet there is certainly evidence that he was concerned with the financial future of his family, as any dying man would.
What was known about his MP insurance policy? If he had brought down the government, would his insurance policy have been cancelled? If not, did he know that? These are questions that need answering, if the Liberal Party wants to pursue Cadmaniagate.

No Gayle, I'm not the vulture here. Think back to the smirk on Paul Martin's face if you want to see that sort of emotion.

The LPC going over and above to slime Harper on this, is also appalling. I don't think a law suit would have been my first choice of defense as PM, but it is certainly one that he is entitled to, if the LPC continues to make libelous accusations about what he said and knew.

To the LPC its apparently all political fodder.


Tomm said...


Yes there is evidence that Martin used bribes to get Stronach to cross the floor. He immediately gave her a Cabinet post and smirked his way through that question at the press conference.

Martin was not pilloried by the MSM because they don't hate him the way they hate Harpet.

In case you haven't been notified, "the medium is the massage".


Steve V said...

Shorter Tomm

I can't deal with the substance of Cadman, so I will use other examples for distraction. Yawn.

Gayle said...

Steve has it right Tomm. When faced with the reality of what you are saying, you attempt to change the channel.

I will try to put it simply for you:

The reason Cadman voted the way he did is completely irrelevant to the allegation the conservatives tried to take advantage of his particular situation by suggesting he commit a criminal offence.

I understand your desperation here - Harper looks bad and the fact he refuses to address the issue makes things increasingly worse for him. But your attempt to paint Paul Martin as the bad guy is both pathetic and comic.

Steve V said...


The funniest part, the argument is so pathetic, they are reduced to comparing Harper to the Liberals. LOL.

Tomm said...

Steve & Gayle,

Sure. You're right. Strangely, I've already said that.

Harper should not have authorized giving Cadman anything. Harper should immediately either ask the RCMP or some other offical path to investiage.

No question to either. We are in agreement.



Gayle said...

Yes tomm - you agree about Cadman...sort of.

You also strain yourself trying to argue Martin somehow comes off looking worse.