Friday, March 28, 2008

Conservative Fading In Ontario

I finally saw the internals for the latest Ipsos poll, which helps explain why the two parties are statistically tied. I've heard a couple of lame commentaries, trying to argue how Harper's attack Ontario strategy may pay dividends. Yesterday, I characterized Harper's olive branch to McGuinty as an admission of failure. Conservative supporters have a hard time admitting political missteps, it's always part of some greater plan, that only the mystical can comprehend. Well, back on planet earth, you just need an extensive scan of Ontario papers, national ones for that matter, to see that the Flaherty assault was landing with a thunderous thud. And, you need some basic math:

Liberals 43%
Conservatives 33%
NDP 15%

This result from Ipsos, the Conservative holdout, the only operation that consistently showed the Cons out front in Ontario.

It was only two months ago, that the Conservatives had legitimate claims to argue momentum in Ontario, many outfits showed a close fight, some even supported Ipsos numbers. If anyone doubts the impact, the complete and utter disaster, that is attack Ontario, just look at the numbers a mere seven weeks ago:
the Tories enjoy the lead with 39-per-cent support while the Liberals trail at 33 per cent.

That's right, a full 16 point swing in voter support from then to now, a seismic shift by an objective measure, and anyone with a hint of common sense knows why. To add context, let's not forget that this erosion has occured at a time when the Liberals were abstaining, a flurry of negativity.

Yes, the strategic genius, has effectively killed any momentum the Conservatives were starting to enjoy in Ontario, and set them back to levels which could take them out of power. Brilliant I say, we play checkers while the master plays chess. Back to the drawing board.


ALW said...

Wow, are you saying that the Tories were ahead seven weeks ago?

Oh wait, you're not. You said the Ipsos numbers were bogus then. But now, of course, because you like the numbers, Ipsos is of course bang on.

Great analysis, Steve.

Steve V said...

You're such a tool, it's staggering. I'm using the internal results from one polling outfit, to show how quickly the results have changed, in a short timespan.

And, if you actually read, I said some of the other outfits were starting to support the Ipsos numbers seven weeks ago. You're such a lightweight, you really are.

Steve V said...

One further point alw, don't expect to take up shop here with your nonsense. About all you're good for, is dumbing down any discussion, your basically an intellectual anchor.

Cue the impotent retort.

Jim said...

Steve said...

"About all you're good for, is dumbing down any discussion,"

Well maybe TiGuy will drop in to raise the intellectual bar for you.;)

Ti-Guy said...

Well maybe TiGuy will drop in to raise the intellectual bar for you.;)

Believe it or not, I haven't checked this blog since yesterday and then I pop by and...My Stars! I've being dissed! Oh, least Jim has stopped issuing death threats towards me.

Anyway, an Ontarian like Aaron, in a rare, non-trolly moment of clarity, should at least be honest enough to admit that the reason he lurrves him some Conservatives is not what the rest of Ontarians are hearing or caring about and whose opinion is deeply affected by what they remember of the Harrisites who are now sitting in Ottawa and who have the unmitigated gall to tear down their own constituents' province. It's like revenge; we didn't end up liking the mess their "Common Sense Revolution" left, and now it's payback, baby!

Unbelievably inept. But then, when it comes to the Harrisites, Ontarians should be the last ones to be surprised.

Oxford County Liberals said...

The most unsurprising thing other then Conservative #'s dropping in Ontario over Flaherty's stupid attacks on Ontario is ALW coming over here to diss Steve after he gets taken apart at my blog by Steve.

Jim said...

Death threats...that's rich. Don't flatter yourself...a good slap around...maybe. ;)

Ti-Guy said...

I know. I was just kidding.

Anonymous said...

Well, pretending for a moment I didn't read the whirlpool generated by alw's stunning, um, "analysis", I'll start as if no one else has posted . . .

Really spot on post, Steve. I had been curious why the Ipsos detailed numbers were rather hard to come by. Funny, how when the conservatives show even a noise blip above the liberals in Ontario, that gets mentioned front and center. But when their own mystical formula puts libs ahead 10 points, it isn't even mentioned.

Does sort of explain Harper's sudden graciousness yesterday, which you correctly pegged as well.

More sheer strategic genius from the master. I'm sure there will be more nonsense reports on how this puts them exactly where they want to be over 2 years into their minority government.

Karen said...

While it's good news and a great analysis Steve, I'm not convinced that Harper is 'repair' mode.

I'm not suggesting conspiracy, nor a game being played by Flaherty and Harper.

I'm simply not convinced that the attack on Ontario won't continue. It's suicide, but that lot has a tendancy to stand by what they perceive as tried and true, even when it doesn't work.

If Flaherty's back is up against the wall, which it will be, he'll scream it's Ontario's fault once again.

He won't accept blame and the Con's are unlikely to dump on the US given the current climate, so where else can he go?

A finger must be pointed remember. Gawd it's hard to believe that Flaherty is the Finance Minister isn't it?

Steve V said...

"I'm simply not convinced that the attack on Ontario won't continue."

Let's hope so ;)


This poll wasn't even covered in the NP, and I only saw it in one Canwest publication, strangely the regional numbers were omitted.

wilson said...

Libs were hoping for a bump up from the byelections.
Martha and Bob deserve a little credit here too.

Oxford County Liberals said...

Shockingly Wilson, I might actually agree with you this one and probably only time.. though our pundit friends such as Chantal Hebert would think otherwise.

bigcitylib said...

What's up with that Cyberpresse poll out of Que.? (Shows Tories and Bloc tied) Is that credible?

Steve V said...

Very, I think.