The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows Hillary Clinton with a five percentage point lead over Barack Obama in national Democratic voters' nomination preferences, 48% to 43%.
This marks the second consecutive day of Gallup Poll Daily tracking showing Clinton with a statistically significant lead over Obama, something she had not accomplished since Feb. 7-9 polling.
One of Obama's central arguments, that had worked to his favor, the notion that he is a stronger opponent than Clinton vs McCain. Obama has often cited polling which shows him doing much better head to head than his rival, to support the claim. That line of argument has apparently evaporated, with polls now showing no advantage:
CNN Mar 19
Clinton 49% McCain 47%
Obama 47% McCain 46%
CBS Mar 19
Obama 48% McCain 43%
Clinton 46% McCain 44%
USA Today Mar 18
Clinton 51% McCain 46%
Obama 49% McCain 47%
If you take the lastest average of all the head to head polls, you find McCain beats Obama .8%, Clinton 1.1%. In other words, Obama's once significant advantage has disappeared.
When you look at some state polls, you see Clinton doing much better than Obama in bellweather Missouri vs McCain, better in Ohio, Kentucky, Mass, California, Florida, Pennsylvania. In fairness, there are many states where Obama does better, but I present these to counter the notion that Obama has swing state appeal, relative to Clinton.
Looking ahead, North Carolina was supposed to be friendly terrority for Obama, earlier offerings showed a significant lead. The latest poll, shows a deadheat:
I'd rather not debate Obama's chances, or if Hillary really has any. However, it does seem counter-intuitive that the race is over, and yet we see no evidence of people gravitating towards the supposed victor, in fact the opposite is occuring. It might just a small blip on the road, everything is fluid, but the trends are clearly with Clinton at the moment.