Some of the regionals have large MOE's, but it's noteworthy that the Conservatives trail the Liberals in every province except... well you know. I admit I find it hard to believe the Liberals are up 8% in Sask/Man, but EKOS also shows a statistical tie in British Columbia/Terr and the MOE is a respectable 6. Other polls have shown hinted at movement to the Liberals in British Columbia, with the large sample size, this internal might be indicative of something.
EKOS confirms recent trends in Ontario:
The last EKOS poll had a statistical tie, so again we see further confirmation of a big move to the Liberals in Ontario. This large gap must really depress the Conservatives, because their new strategy in recent months has been to court Ontario, making nice with McGuinty, now that Quebec is lost.
Speaking of Quebec, again the same sort of numbers from EKOS:
That is a disasterous number for the Conservatives, and before apologists fluff it off, it's not the first time we've seen that low water mark in recent polls. A very strong number for the Liberals, by comparison the last EKOS poll had us at 21%.
The news is just as bad for the Conservatives when the question turns to party leaders, with Ignatieff scoring an impressive 50% approval (plus 6% from January), Harper 38%(plus 3), Layton 37% (down 7). Factoring in disapproval numbers, Ignatieff is plus 22%, while both Harper and Layton are minus, 16 and 9 respectively. In the last EKOS poll 35% had no opinion of Ignatieff, with this one the number is down to 21%. Ignatieff has a wide gap on this measure, coupled with the party support percentages, it's a powerful concoction. For Layton, more evidence that his image has been tarnished. For Harper, a known quantity, devastating.
EKOS also provides their seat projections, and they translate the numbers to a strong minority for the Liberals:
What's really interesting, the Bloc maintain their seat total. If the Liberals could cut into Bloc support, well, dare to dream :) That aside, it's hard not be optimistic with those numbers.
Just one poll, the usual disclaimers, but the trend is very clear and with each successive result, the picture looks better and better.