Saturday, April 25, 2009

Trending Liberal

A new Angus Reid poll which continues the trend of Liberals moving up, while Conservatives moving down. From this pollster a 9% lead became a 4% lead which now shows a tie. One curious finding in Ontario, which seems an outlier, relative to the clear trend elsewhere.

The national numbers:
Libs 33%
Cons 33%
NDP 15%
Greens 6%

A high water mark in Liberal support from AR. The results are closer than other recent polls, which have given the Liberals a small to reasonable lead. The discrepancy seems to come with the Ontario findings, which don't correspond with what we've seen elsewhere:
Cons 38%
Libs 35%
NDP 17%
Greens 7%

If we look at the last Ontario results, from every pollster (Nanos, Ekos, Harris Decima, Strategic Counsel, Ipsos Reid) we see the Liberals average 43.2%, while the Conservatives average 32.2%. Given the clear trends elsewhere, it's hard to reconcile this number from Angus Reid with other findings. This apparent outlier explains the national tie scenario, looks like a 19 out of 20 result.

Looking at the rest of the regionals, the Quebec numbers are more in line:
Bloc 40%
Libs 35%
Cons 10%
NDP 6%
Greens 5%

The average, using the last set of results from every pollster, including CROP in this case, shows the Liberals at 31.3%, Conservatives 14.3%, Bloc 38.8%, NDP 9.8%. The most recent results for the Conseratives show a 12%, a 10%, and now another 10%, so it's not much of a stretch to talk of a complete shutout in Quebec, at the MOMENT.

AR shows a tight race in British Columbia, large margin of error caveat aside:
Cons 36%
Libs 31%
NDP 23%
Greens 10%

You're hesitant to conclude much, but we are starting to see an uptick for the Liberals, a narrowing in British Columbia, based on the last few polls. It would be nice to have a British Columbia only poll, to see if the trend is real.

On the best PM front, Ignatieff is now tied with Harper at 24% each, which is clearly a worrying sign for a party that revolves around leadership.

Overall, I feel pretty confident in saying that AR's Ontario number is very suspect, while the rest of their findings show reasonable resemblence to what we've seen elsewhere. If we see a tie scenario, further evidence of switched fortunes, without the Ontario "gap", things look quite good for the Liberals.

9 comments:

Pearce Richards said...

For the requisite spin from across the aisle, see here.I would like to see more sound BC numbers as well... The Liberals really have nowhere to go but up (one would hope) after the last election.

Steve V said...

I love how people move the bar, we're supposed to be "light years ahead", as though our worst defeat in history didn't count. As an aside, AR was on of the last pollsters to give the Cons a lead outside of MOE prior to the latest release.

I think what I've presented here is a fair read, especially the Ontario numbers.

Pearce Richards said...

I agree about your reading of the poll. However, do you have any further comment on the leadership numbers? Ignatieff used to be ahead by a substantial margin (from what I remember)... But I may be misremembering the favourable/unfavourable numbers, instead of the "who would make the best PM" numbers.

Steve V said...

Pearce

Actually, the leadership numbers are pretty stable from this pollster. Some of the others do the fav/unfav, but AR asks this question and it's been pretty much tied the last three results. Just to add, it's very rare for a sitting PM to be tied with an opposition leader on this measure, I'd be happy if Iggy was just within striking distance. 24% for a sitting PM is a dreadful score.

Pearce Richards said...

Thanks Steve,

I'd agree, 24% for Harper is pretty woeful.

√Čric said...

That poll gives me a Conservative minority with about 125 seats to 110 Liberal. The Ontario result makes all the difference, because the Conservatives would be lucky to elect one MP from Quebec with this.

burlivespipe said...

Throwing a little cold water here just because i can, but the provincial election (where Campbell's blue Liberals are polling in safe majority territory) could be influencing the BC numbers. As a BC voter, I'd love to see us being within striking distance but unless this is virtually a Lower Mainland only sampling, it's hard to believe we are near 30 in the interior-north. But as you said, snapshot-wise, another healthy trend.

DL said...

I doubt if the BC election makes much difference. People in BC are very used to having totally different parties at the federal and provincial level. Otherwise, you would think that more people would say they would vote Conservative in the provincial election - yet the BC Conservatives are almost non-existent.

Steve V said...

burl

You could be right, which is another reason for caution.