The national numbers:
A high water mark in Liberal support from AR. The results are closer than other recent polls, which have given the Liberals a small to reasonable lead. The discrepancy seems to come with the Ontario findings, which don't correspond with what we've seen elsewhere:
If we look at the last Ontario results, from every pollster (Nanos, Ekos, Harris Decima, Strategic Counsel, Ipsos Reid) we see the Liberals average 43.2%, while the Conservatives average 32.2%. Given the clear trends elsewhere, it's hard to reconcile this number from Angus Reid with other findings. This apparent outlier explains the national tie scenario, looks like a 19 out of 20 result.
Looking at the rest of the regionals, the Quebec numbers are more in line:
The average, using the last set of results from every pollster, including CROP in this case, shows the Liberals at 31.3%, Conservatives 14.3%, Bloc 38.8%, NDP 9.8%. The most recent results for the Conseratives show a 12%, a 10%, and now another 10%, so it's not much of a stretch to talk of a complete shutout in Quebec, at the MOMENT.
AR shows a tight race in British Columbia, large margin of error caveat aside:
You're hesitant to conclude much, but we are starting to see an uptick for the Liberals, a narrowing in British Columbia, based on the last few polls. It would be nice to have a British Columbia only poll, to see if the trend is real.
On the best PM front, Ignatieff is now tied with Harper at 24% each, which is clearly a worrying sign for a party that revolves around leadership.
Overall, I feel pretty confident in saying that AR's Ontario number is very suspect, while the rest of their findings show reasonable resemblence to what we've seen elsewhere. If we see a tie scenario, further evidence of switched fortunes, without the Ontario "gap", things look quite good for the Liberals.