Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Familiar Trends

The latest Strategic Counsel poll shows the same trends we've seen elsewhere, for all the principle parties. The Liberals achieve their highest percentage from SC since the last leadership convention, and the Ontario numbers mirror perfectly the 2004 election results. Further confirmation that the NDP are become marginalized, the Conservatives fading in Ontario, nowhere in Quebec.

While the national race is close, it is noteworthy that we now have another pollster giving the Liberals a slight edge, even more pronounced when you factor in the regionals:
Libs 34%
Cons 32%
NDP 15%
Greens 9%

These numbers represent a 6 point swing from the last SC poll. Harper did receive a bit of an Obama bounce in the last SC poll, as expected, and the pollster recognizes this in the analysis. What was also clear, that photo op with the rock star was Harper's last real opportunity to change the channel in any substantive way- it was merely a blip. The Liberals are up considerably since the last election, anyone who expects us to be on the cusp of a majority so soon, given the challenges, is devoid of common sense or sound political calculation, not to mention kind of pathetic. These are objectively strong numbers, an impressive turn of fortune, given the historical thumping that occured a mere six months ago. Optimism is warranted.

The regionals confirm the trendline in Ontario, mirroring other pollsters, in terms of a solid swing to the Liberals, at the Conservatives and NDP expense:
Libs 45%
Cons 32%
NDP 15%
Greens 9%

These numbers represent the highest percentage for the Liberals in Ontario from this pollster. To put these numbers in context, the Liberals won 75 seats (2 less than we enjoy nationally now) when the spread was exactly the same in 2004, and the NDP are now currently weaker than that election result. I'm a bit weary of putting stock in a singular SC poll, primarily because we've seen some goofy numbers in the past. However, these numbers are pretty much in line with everyone else, so one can entertain the possibilities.

In Quebec, no real movement from the last poll, and again somewhat similar to other pollsters:
Bloc 41%
Libs 29%
Cons 15%
NDP 9%
Greens 6%

We've seen tighter numbers from bigger, Quebec specific polls, but the Liberal number is fairly consistent. I think the Liberals are clearly well placed to make gains in Quebec, the degree will be sorted out in the campaign.

The "West" numbers are interesting. The Liberals are up 8% since the last election, although the regionals within aren't presented. I suspect some of this is in British Columbia, and I can't see any reason to think the looming convention will reverse any positive momentum. Still, work to do:
Cons 46%
Libs 24%
NDP 19%
Greens 11%

I'm not sure about the "moral compass", but I know the Conservatives are headed south.

Stephen Harper 2006-2009


RuralSandi said...

I wish they'd break down the western numbers and I wonder why they don't.

Steve V said...

Mostly sample size.

Here is a pretty good breakdown of where we are with the polls. Sounds about right:

"A lead is not yet a win".

Northern PoV said...

apropos yesterdays discussion ....
"moral compass"
not that it matters much, just adds to the general confusion but
Well Iggy did have it coming - he just had to open his mouth

he needs to learn to shut up when there is no upside

Brian A said...

Either way, it's a good trend showing that us Liberals are on the upswing.

Steve V said...

"he needs to learn to shut up when there is no upside"

Actually, there's no downside, considering the subject matter is internal Conservative divisions. It's a discussion on their turf, and if Harper's comments agitate some Mulroney loyalists in their ranks, works for me.

Steve V said...

"Robin Sears, Brian Mulroney's spokesperson, says at least six MPs and cabinet ministers called the former prime minister to express their sympathy and indignation regarding the kerfuffle over his Conservative party membership.

It seems these calls are in direct defiance of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's order. He told his caucus to have no contact with Mulroney. "

This is the story people, and the more Harper wants to focus on it, the more I say THANK YOU.

Steve V said...


I'm doing a post on the compass angle, and my argument isn't directly towards you necessarily, so don't take it that way. I've heard a few say this is a blunder, and I disagree.