I have always believed that the people in Ontario remain suspicious of Harper, despite their desire for change. Today's Cpac poll now has the Liberals and Conservatives in a dead heat in Ontario. This is a huge development for a myriad of reasons. The nervous voter is starting to question the consequences of Conservative rule. Martin leads Harper on the leadership index, which is supposedly a leading indicator for voter preference. Martin has also closed the gap on the question of who would be the best PM.
These numbers are relevant mostly because of perception. The last week, the media theme was dominated by talk of surging Tories, disconcerted Liberals and inevitability. Always up for some drama, I would expect the media to seize on these latest polls to suggest a turning point. Are the Liberals coming back again? Did Harper peak to early? Momentum is everything, and finally the Grits have something to point too. The resignation we have witnessed from Liberal party officals may now be tempered, with the corresponding pressure building on the Conservatives.
We may very well still be looking at a Conservative victory, I don't mean to suggest otherwise. But, the likelihood of a majority may be waning as people hesitate in giving Harper the keys. The last week of a campaign is an eternity and this race remains fluid.
3 comments:
It would be nice to actually see Stephen Harper sweat during this election. So far it has been far too easy for him.
Just as in the USA, we have seen in the past three weeks the mainstream media skimming the surface rather than digging into details. They focus on He said-She said reporting, and banal interviews, instead of presenting the nitty gritty of a campaign. A true investigative reporter would be dogging the internal pollsters of each major party, rather than just quaffing wine together on some bus off in the wilds somewhere. Most of the columnists on the buses are now suffering from the same Stockholm-fever that the journalists embedded with the US troops showed in the invasion of Iraq.
What has happened? Few details of the shifts in voter currents have surfaced. Allan Gregg is busy drumming up support for his pet Tories; the others show out of date polls. But – like the rising tide – the truth is seeping in: the closer we get to decision day, the more people are looking at a preening Harper and not liking what they see. His dismissive wave of the hand to the $20 billion gap in his program, and to the tax cuts for the wealthier citizens, along with his hanging a for-sale sign out in the provinces (hurry! Hurry! Federal government powers for sale – cheap!), are starting to seep into voters’ minds.
Is it a surprise that the polls are closing and will continue to close? No. Voters are kicking the tires, and Harper’s tires are flatter than his “evolution” pretended them to be.
Voters can spot a fraud a mile away, and Harper’s so-called “I am a changed man” defence of his 1997 speech to rightwingers in the USA just does not wash.
There is still a chance for a Liberal minority government. You heard it right here, from the Cat.
"There is still a chance for a Liberal minority government. You heard it right here, from the Cat."
I agree, mainly because it is clear that people do not endorse the Conservative platform, but merely want change. Once people take a close look at how that change would manifest itself, we begin to see second guessing. Conservative support, outside of their western base, is softer than tariffed lumber.
Post a Comment