The news of the day gives us our clues. Remember when the polls first showed movement towards the Conservatives. No coincidence that this happened while the latest potential Liberal scandal was digested. The last round of debates gave a favorable impression of Harper, while most reports gave Martin a failing grade. Again, the polling reflected the reporting and the Conservative widened their lead.
Within this context, I tend to believe the latest polls which show the race tightening. Why? Martin has had relatively favorable coverage the last few days, with lots of juicy soundbites helping him get his message out. This week, Martin has appeared on the offensive, instead of answering questions about the latest gaffe. The Harper coverage on the other hand is surrounded by talk of economists withdrawing support, checks on a potential Tory rule and some talk about "peaking too early". This is why I can't swallow the polls which still show a massive Conservative lead.
Additionally, it just seems like common sense that Canadians aren't gushing over Harper, but merely rejecting the Liberals. This condition allows for second guessing as the reality of a Harper government draws near. Voters still believe the country is headed in the right direction and this fact may offset the desire for reform. The devil you know logic may be cementing itself, especially in Ontario where suspicion still abounds.
I don't believe the widening or holding polls and maybe that is my own biased perspective. I subscribe to the notion that, yes it is tightening, as Canadians finally focus on the implications of this election. In other words, I take the view that the Globe poll is complete bunk. See you Monday.
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