Softwood Deal Dead?

Emerson doesn't sound very optimistic:

Trade Minister David Emerson says the beleaguered Canada-U.S. softwood deal might never make it to the House of Commons, a departure from earlier warnings that the government was prepared to fight an election on the issue.

"It is fair to say that if we do not have sufficient buy-in from industry there really isn't an agreement to bring before Parliament," Emerson said Monday...

A few weeks ago, Prime Minister Stephen Harper declared the treaty the best deal Canada was going to get, and said the legislation to implement it would constitute a confidence motion for the minority Conservative government.

But persistent criticism from provincial governments and the lumber industry have raised the possibility the deal with wither away before the scheduled fall vote.

Emerson's comments are either frank admission, or calculated strategy. Given the growing dissent over the deal, coupled with a united opposition and the added kicker of worrying poll numbers, the Conservatives may be abandoning this deal before it reaches the crescendo. If the Conservatives can walk away before a confrontation in the House, they may actually minimize the potential damage to the government. Afterall, if the deal falls through, the Conservatives can always spin it as a return to the status quo that went on for years with the Liberals. If, however, they force the deal to parliament, knowing full well that they don't have broad support, then it represents a serious gamble. I think the Tories may have blinked here, not quite so cocksure about a fall election, especially if foreign policy disasters and flawed trade agreements are at the core. Emerson may well be laying the foundation to abandon ship and cut their loses.