What If?

What if Israel had done "nothing", in the aftermath of Hezbollah's actions? An absurd proposition on the one hand, but I am convinced that it was the most prudent move, for a myriad of reasons. In what was an unprecedented reaction, the Arab world reacted angrily and placed full blame on Hezbollah- without the usual references to historical precedent. This watershed moment meant that the Arab world was actually onside, reacting in concert with western nations. This new reality afforded an incredible opportunity to push the agenda and further isolate Hezbollah. Diplomatic pressure from fellow Arab states, coupled with renewed support for the fledgling Lebanese government and army, could have been quite effective in forcing Hezbollah to the margins. Instead, what we hear today are threats of a "wider" war, and complete disdain for Israel.

There is also the question of the looming confrontation with Iran over its nuclear program. Hezbollah's action had further exposed Tehran, given Israel just cause for a pre-emptive strike and provided the world community with added moral leverage. The amount of pressure on Iran was bound to increase and reluctant nations more easily persuaded to take a tough stance. Instead, as witnessed in Rome, we now see a world community further divided and this could spill over to the question of Iran.

What about the people of Lebanon? Hezbollah's actions had the potential to alienate it from Lebanese who sought peace in the region. Israel, working together with moderate elements in Lebanon could have found common purpose in weakening Hezbollah's influence. There may have been a civilian backlash amongst soft supporters, as opposed to what we witness now. By all accounts, people are now rallying behind Hezbollah, because they now see it as the sole vehicle to stop Israeli "atrocities". If the goal was to weaken Hezbollah, not reacting would have allowed the greatest possibilities. Instead, Lebanon now has another generation who can point to Israel and see an aggressor. The extremists are now armed with a litany of evidence to support their cause.

What about the people of Israel? If the entire offensive revolves around security, and the army has now admitted that Hezbollah will exist in the war's aftermath, then what has really been accomplished? All the Israeli casualties and soldiers killed, as Hezbollah continually retaliates in this vicious cycle. Israel could have argued for a buffer zone, international presence and diplomatic pressure on Hezbollah without this offensive. Instead, the news would be devoted to discussions of the kidnapped soldiers and the dialogue to ease tensions. The majority of the world applying pressure on Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, while Israel looks the wronged victim. If the view is longterm, restraint was the best option- but that's not how the neverending eye for an eye mentality works and the main reason why hopes for peace will remain a pipedream.