What Majority?

If you listen to most of the media commentary, the Harper government generally gets a passing grade for their performance. Pundits point to the fact that Harper has largely followed through on his promises, hasn't had any serious blunders and looked far more certain and steady than his predecessor. Big splash taxcuts, a fractured Liberal Party, further incursions into Quebec, all converging to paint this picture that Harper sits in an advantageous position. This mindset plays out everytime we hear mention of an election, as if Harper has the cards and can dictate the terrain. Someone should remind the pundits, the Harper government, despite all the favorable conditions, hasn't moved at all:

How would Canadians vote today?*

JULY, 2006

Liberal 26%
Conservative 37%
NDP 18%
Bloc Québécois 11%
Green Party 8%

These results, from the polling outfit that massively overstated Tory support in the leadup to the last election. The reality, Harper is exactly where he was on election day, which translates into another small minority. I suggest the opposition keep these numbers in mind, because I would argue that this government may have a natural ceiling, with no where to go but down. All this supposed leverage that Harper enjoys over the opposition, the threats and bullying, nothing but smoke and mirrors. The Conservative's are not on the cusp of majority, in fact their numbers are disappointing, given the circumstance. The Liberals are without a face, and yet Harper is static? The Liberals have lost some support since the election, but quite telling that voters haven't moved to the Tories. I hope the media, and the opposition, remembers the numbers when the chest thumping returns this fall.