Gerard Kennedy, a former cabinet minister in Ontario, appears to be a surprising front-runner in the race to sign up new Liberals prior to the leadership vote, according to preliminary information obtained by the Star.
Particularly impressive, Kennedy seems to enjoy large support across the country. Of the eleven thousand new members in British Columbia, Kennedy alone has four thousand supporters, which is three times that of his nearest rival. Kennedy also looks to be out front in Alberta, as well as a strong showing in Saskatchewan. In Ontario, more good news:
One Liberal said, without giving any numbers, that the party expected to double its membership. The source placed Ignatieff and Kennedy in the top two (without picking a leader), with Volpe's strong organization placing him a close third. A drop-off followed, with the group of Rae, Dion and MP Ken Dryden (York Centre) coming in next. Then came MPs Maurizio Bevilacqua (Vaughan) and Scott Brison (Kings-Hants), with Toronto lawyer Martha Hall Findlay, Vancouver Centre MP Hedy Fry and St. Paul's MP Carolyn Bennett trailing badly.
In Quebec, Kennedy lags behind which is hardly surprising. The article posts little information about the east coast, although Kennedy apparently scores well in P.E.I.
These numbers effectively take Kennedy out of the "darkhorse" tag and we can expect more media scrutiny in the coming weeks. Momentum is always a key in any campaign, Kennedy can expect a secondary bounce amongst undecideds as people now see him as a legitimate option. Kennedy's emergence adds some spice to a race that has largely been ignored to date. Primarily, Kennedy's rise speaks to the grassroots re-emerging as a force within a top-heavy party. Despite the fact that Ignatieff, Rae and Dion all enjoy the support of the traditional party powerbrokers, Kennedy's rise is largely a function of people power. I find these numbers very exciting, regardless of personal preference.
Correction
Apparently, the reported numbers for British Columbia from this article aren't accurate, Rae actually did quite well and Kennedy was not the runaway leader, although he still came out on top.
7 comments:
Rae looks the big loser-
"Pinkus said he thought the results "had to be disappointing" for Rae because his brother and campaign manager John Rae is a leading Quebec executive with Power Corp., and he has senior Liberals working for him in the province."
I agree with the poster above that iggy, dion, and kennedy gotta be happy with where they are - but Rae has some serious soul searching to do.
In fact, Rae's team has done quite respectably despite launching his campaign very late. Over 3,000 new memberships alone in BC and 4,500 in Ontario... Those numbers sound very impressive to me. He's also done well in Saskatchewan and decently in Quebec. But no one is going to win this on the number of new recruits they've made in the past few months. It'll come down to turnout and then finally direction and momentum coming on the floor. I sense Ignatieff has peaked, Volpe does have some wind in his sails but is supremely limited, while the likes of Dryden and Brison are looming in the background, but one of them could jump into contender position. I believe the first drop-out may be Bennett before labour day, followed by Fry immediately after the BC debate.
burl
I should have linked to the updated story. There was an error in this report that didn't accurately show Rae's numbers for British Columbia. Kennedy did not in fact have three times the signups, Rae only had a 1000 less.
I'll update it.
best regards, nice info
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I like it! Good job. Go on.
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