Sunday, January 27, 2008

Ipsos Poll

The numbers:
Shows the Tories resuming their lead on the Grits, with 37-per-cent support compared to 29 per cent held by their main opposition. The poll shows a jump in support of four per cent by the Tories, while the Grits dropped six per cent since the last survey two weeks ago.

The NDP trail behind the two main parties with 14 per cent support while the Greens have 10 per cent.

Quebec, the Conservatives back in second place:
The Bloc Québécois, meanwhile, leads in support in their province with 35 per cent, while the Tories hold second place with 26 per cent, ahead of the Grits who hold 21 per cent. The NDP is at 12 per cent in the province, while the Green party holds only five per cent of Quebecers in the poll.

Conservatives ahead in Ontario:
the Tories enjoy the lead with 39-per-cent support while the Liberals trail at 33 per cent. The NDP is at 15 per cent in the vote-rich province while the Green party can claim 12 per cent of decided voters.

I don't necessarily buy the Ontario numbers, Ipsos is notorious for over-stating Tory support in the province, relative to other polls. In fact, Ipsos is the only pollster to have shown the Conservatives with a notable lead in Ontario.

The last Ipsos offering(January 12) had the Liberals leading 35% to 33%. The Liberals a solid second in Quebec, leading in Ontario.

I don't see much that has happened to explain the apparent turn in fortunes for the government.

12 comments:

Scott Tribe said...

Ipsos is also getting a questioning eye from Kady O'Malley for the way they worded their poll question on the Afghanistan question.

I have a lot of questions about Ipsos these days. Let's see what other polls say - particularly after this Afghanistan detainees "we didn't know the policy had changed" flap.

Steve V said...

Scott, do you remember the last poll, where Bricker tried to justify a phantom 23 point decline for the Tories in Alberta? This week, the Tories are back in Alberta, although the Liberals lead in Sask ;) Why bother posting these regionals?

Anonymous said...

Time for 10 MP's to visit Stephane Dion at Stornaway and tell him its time for him to leave.

The only thing standing in the way of a Liberal victory at the next election is Staephane Dion.

quaeitur said...

I never take Ipsos polls seriously.
A few years ago when I received a call from Ipsos, something to do with the military I think but can't remember now, I was put on their 'member list'. For months afterward (until I 'unsubscribed') I received weekly emails asking me to do 'surveys' which all turned out to be about consumer grocery-buying preferences.
IMHO Ipsos is more of a marketing firm than a polling firm.

Willy Wonka said...

I knew that as soon as Dion opened his big mouth again, Canadians would catch on. Now the numbers suggest that.

Scott Tribe said...

Hey Anonymous, not even the most strident Dion critics in the Liberal Party would ever suggest he leave before he is at least tested in an election - nice try however.

Willy:

Another nice try, but even if Ipsos somehow has its pulse on the nation (which many of us doubt), this poll was taken pre-Sandra Buckler and her little faux pas of blaming the military for their little change in detainees policy. I doubt too many Canadians will be impressed with this Conservative government's secrecy on the matter or the fact their spokesperson fibbed and decided to blame the institution the Cons. claim to have a monopoly on supporting (that being the military).

Anonymous said...

I didn't see a reference to the actual polling days. This could have been following the Pakistan affair but before the detainee affair, not to mention the continuing Lunn-Keen saga.

Steve V said...

anon

Usually, Ipsos polls Tuesday to Thursday, although I can't find a reference for this one.

ottlib said...

Remember Ipsos is the one that had the Conservatives in majority territory for weeks during the Fall, when all other polling companies had them tied with the Liberals.

The more interesting poll that came out this past week was the Decima poll that stated only about 20% of Canadians wanted an election.

A predictable result but I was left wondering where the horse-race numbers were. One would think that a poll about an election would ask about party support. So why did not Decima publish those estimates?

Steve V said...

"Remember Ipsos is the one that had the Conservatives in majority territory for weeks during the Fall, when all other polling companies had them tied with the Liberals."

It always seems to come back to Ontario. Whenever Ipsos looks the outlier, they show the Tories ahead in Ontario. I could be wrong, but Ipsos is the only outfit in the last year that has shown a Tory lead in Ontario, outside of MOE.

Miles Lunn said...

I think the jump in the polls is largely due to parliament being out of session until recently. Usually when parliament is out of session, the Tory numbers go up and then drop once it goes back into session. I don't buy the Tories being ahead in Ontario, although I don't think the Liberals are ahead by a huge margin in Ontario. I suspect if an election was called today, the GTA would go solidly Liberal while most of Rural Ontario would go Conservative. My guess is the rural/urban split would occur again.

Anonymous said...

Jan.27, 2008: Canadians are tired of Harper and his blatant lies. I think he telephones George W every day. Probably asked him to deploy troops to Afghanistand and a few heliocopters so he can save his ass. Saw Iggy on CTV at lunch time and almost wept. He is the one to make Harper look like the fool he is. Oh Mr. Dion, please help us, Promise you will have a wonderful position when Iggy gets to be the P.M.