Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Michigan Primary

From all indications, tonight's Michigan primary looks to be a tight contest on the Republican side. With the Democrats by-passing Michigan, Clinton the only candidate on the ballot, the only question is whether people vote for her or "uncommitted", which frees any delegates at the convention.

Two rolling polls released late last night, show different results. Mitchell Research, which has a good track record in Michigan, gives Romney the edge:
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has taken a 6% lead over U.S. Sen. John McCain according to results of a tracking poll conducted Saturday, Sunday and Monday, January 12-14, 2008. Romney leads with 35% to McCain’s 29%. Mike Huckabee is third at 12%. Rudy Giuliani (3%) and Ron Paul (4%) have both dropped while Fred Thompson (4%), and Duncan Hunter (2%) have stayed the same since last night’s tracking.

Two days ago, this outfit had McCain by 1 point, yesterday Romney by 2 points, today Romney by 6 points. This trend suggests momentum for Romney.

Zogby also released a late poll, which shows a dead heat:
McCain, the Arizona senator, held a statistically insignificant 1-point edge over Romney, 27 percent to 26 percent, well within the margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, gained 2 points overnight and McCain held steady in the tracking poll. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was in third place at 15 percent.

Pollster John Zogby said Romney's movement in the final day was slight and polling over four days revealed a stable and exceedingly close race between the two Republican rivals.

Other polling, which didn't include Sunday measurements show differing results, some with Romney ahead, others McCain slightly ahead, still others a deadheat.

The key, what role do independents and crossover Democrats, who can vote in Michigan, play in the final outcome. Those voters are the great unknown, but clearly McCain needs a good turnout from this voters to have a chance. Zogby:
McCain leads Romney among Democrats 30 percent to 15 percent and among independents 33 percent to 24 percent. Romney, whose father was a former Michigan governor and auto executive, leads among Republicans 31 percent to 22 percent.

"This could come down to whether Democrats and independents turn out for McCain, and how engaged Republicans are for Romney," Zogby said.

The Zogby findings are mirrored in other polling. If Democrats and Independents do decide to vote in the Republican Primary, then McCain has a chance, if there is voter apathy, Romney is in good position.

Prediction- should be interesting ;

9 comments:

Steve V said...

One thing to keep in mind, which I failed to mention, there is a very large "absentee ballot" number, which could represent upwards of 15-20% of the total vote. Given the fact that Romney lead Michigan by nearly 30 points just a few weeks ago, one would have to assume that this large pre-election day vote would favor his chances.

Mushroom said...

I decide to jump into the Dems for Romney debate here.

If Markos really wanted to support the grass roots, he should encourage his readers to support Kucinich and Gravel. Two anti-establishment figures whose voice deserves to be heard.

Romney is the candidate the Dems would be smart to destroy ASAP. McCain has been sounding the right message in Mich. Telling people that stopping climate change means business as usual cannot be the norm there for the auto industry. This message has crossover support and helps McCain.

Of course, a Hillary bounce in NH may happen here in Mich for Romney. From the previous two votes though, I question whether Romney can get the vote out. It failed big time in Iowa, when there were polls that showed a Romney bounce against Huckabee in the last weekend.

Steve V said...

mushroom

Agreed, Markos is doing nothing productive here. Even if you accept his latest rationale, that he wants to stir up the Republican race, it seems silly to put a Romney victory into question, when he is easily the Dems best hope. Why would you want to weaken the man? Instead, you want a decisive victory, so he can get some momentum and possibly win the nomination. McCain is tied head to head with both Clinton and Obama. Romney is the worst, a full 20 points behind. Conclusion, anything that takes away from a possible Romney win is sheer stupidity. Markos may know how to market a blog, but he is tone deaf when it comes to strategy.

Steve V said...

Exit polls are showing a very low independent and democrat turnout on the Republican side, only about 25%. In 2000, when McCain won it was closer to 45%, not a good sign for him.

Steve V said...

In 2000 Democrats made up 17% of Republican primary voters. Today's exit polls put the number just below 10%. Did Markos scare away Dems? ;)

Steve V said...

For what it's worth:

I'm hearing the first round of exit polls have Romney 35, McCain 29, Huckabee 15, Ron Paul 10, Giuliani 4. This doesn't count absentee ballots.

Steve V said...

More:

According to a report prepared by Edison Media Research for AP and published in Startribune the initial Michigan primary exit poll results favor Republicans and the Democrats seem to be minority. We project the winner of the Michigan primary exit poll results to be the Republican candidate Mitt Romney.

Mushroom said...

Scott will triumph any Romney win as the success of netroots mobilization :)

Poor performance for Huckabee as he should be closer to the early
20s. Ron Paul's most successful state, thus far. Michigan likes his liberatarian politics than a tax and spend so-con.

Giuliani should just disappear. Four per cent in a relatively liberal northeast state with a declining industrial base. Not good.

Steve V said...

South Carolina is going to be absolutely crucial now, IF these exit polls are right.