Two rolling polls released late last night, show different results. Mitchell Research, which has a good track record in Michigan, gives Romney the edge:
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has taken a 6% lead over U.S. Sen. John McCain according to results of a tracking poll conducted Saturday, Sunday and Monday, January 12-14, 2008. Romney leads with 35% to McCain’s 29%. Mike Huckabee is third at 12%. Rudy Giuliani (3%) and Ron Paul (4%) have both dropped while Fred Thompson (4%), and Duncan Hunter (2%) have stayed the same since last night’s tracking.
Two days ago, this outfit had McCain by 1 point, yesterday Romney by 2 points, today Romney by 6 points. This trend suggests momentum for Romney.
Zogby also released a late poll, which shows a dead heat:
McCain, the Arizona senator, held a statistically insignificant 1-point edge over Romney, 27 percent to 26 percent, well within the margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, gained 2 points overnight and McCain held steady in the tracking poll. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was in third place at 15 percent.
Pollster John Zogby said Romney's movement in the final day was slight and polling over four days revealed a stable and exceedingly close race between the two Republican rivals.
Other polling, which didn't include Sunday measurements show differing results, some with Romney ahead, others McCain slightly ahead, still others a deadheat.
The key, what role do independents and crossover Democrats, who can vote in Michigan, play in the final outcome. Those voters are the great unknown, but clearly McCain needs a good turnout from this voters to have a chance. Zogby:
McCain leads Romney among Democrats 30 percent to 15 percent and among independents 33 percent to 24 percent. Romney, whose father was a former Michigan governor and auto executive, leads among Republicans 31 percent to 22 percent.
"This could come down to whether Democrats and independents turn out for McCain, and how engaged Republicans are for Romney," Zogby said.
The Zogby findings are mirrored in other polling. If Democrats and Independents do decide to vote in the Republican Primary, then McCain has a chance, if there is voter apathy, Romney is in good position.
Prediction- should be interesting ;