The adviser added that the campaign has come to accept another reality of the early process, which is that African-American voters are convinced that Obama is viable and shifting rapidly in his direction.
Assuming Obama wins New Hampshire, the next showdown will be South Carolina. Polls done in mid-December already pointed to a deadheat, seems fairly intuitive that any polling done in the last few days would show Obama ahead. When you factor in Edwards, who won South Carolina in 2004, the future could hold another embarrassing 3rd place finish for Clinton.
This reality begs the question- how can Clinton expect to win on Super Tuesday, when she will have lost the first three contests? Clinton has always held a size able lead in the national polls, which suggests a chance in the national primary. However, I predict that national advantage completely evaporates by the time South Carolina decides.
With all the focus on individual states, there haven't been many national polls in the last few weeks. One exception is Rasmussen, which runs a continuous national tracking poll. That poll had Clinton ahead by 19% over Obama, one week ago. Yesterday's offering had the lead virtually cut in half, Clinton's advantage down to 11%. This number will continue to narrow as Obama overcomes the "electability" hesitation. Winning breeds viability, Clinton's supposed national appeal will be nullified by the time South Carolina weighs in.
The set up seems to be as follows. Obama heads into Super Tuesday with 3 victories, a wind of momentum at his back. Clinton, the former frontrunner, shut out, desperately looking for a firewall. If you just focus on the optics of that scenario, who would you rather be?
I mentioned the Rasmussen national tracking poll, that showed Obama narrowing the gap with Clinton. Today, the gap shows a large shift, with Obama now trailing by a mere 4% (11% yesterday).