For the federal Parliament, support in Quebec for the separatist Bloc Quebecois shot up to 36 percent from 31 percent, while the Conservatives of Prime Minister Stephen Harper fell by four points to 27 percent. The federal Liberals were up two points in the province to 20 percent and the left-leaning New Democrats down two points to 13 percent.
The poll covered 1,000 people from January 17-27. Such a sample should give the same result -- within 3 points 19 times out of 20 -- as if the same questions were asked of the entire Quebec population. The last poll taken November 22 to December 2.
The poll also shows the PQ up provincially, in position to form a minority government.
The CROP numbers mirror Decima's findings for the Bloc and the Liberals. Both show an uptick for both parties, both show the Liberals out of the teen's. Both polls also show Conservative erosion, however CROP still has the Conservatives a strong second at 27%, almost half the Decima finding (14%).
Antonio was right to suggest the Tories are still in the mid-twenties, but the trends are down, and people have gone back to the Bloc. This boost for the Bloc seems to go in concert with the provincial PQ fortunes. Also, I don't think it a coincidence that the ADQ numbers are dropping provincially, in tandem with the Conservatives.
For the Liberals, this CROP finding is somewhat better news, in the 20's again, some distance from the NDP. For the Conservatives, any erosion in support, coupled with a Bloc rise translates to little seat gain, a desperate component of Harper's majority dream.