For the Republicans, McCain seems to be cresting at just the right time. Last night's pivotal debate turned into a Romney bashfest, as all the other candidates pounced on his uneven record and penchant for flip flops. That debate may be McCain's last hurdle, and victory now looks within reach. The poll orgy:
Looking at the internals for both the CNN and NBC polls, McCain is extremely well liked, even amongst Democratic voters. If you average out all the polling, McCain is +5%, with a clear wind at his back.
On a side note, it was fascinating to watch McCain bring up global warming in a passionate way, considering the issue doesn't even register with Republicans, in fact it could alienate some. I was also struck with the genuine affection afforded McCain from all the Democrats, when all the candidates from both parties took the stage. Edwards and McCain actually embraced, the two have worked together in the past, most notably on the patient bill of rights legislation.
On the Democratic front, there isn't a poll out that doesn't show Obama moving up, it is the degree that is still an issue. Some polls this morning:
Of note, both the Zogby and Suffolk rolling average polls have a closing gap. Suffolk had Clinton up 7% just yesterday, which suggests large movement for Obama in the last day of the poll. Zogby also had a 4% gap yesterday, down to 1% today. An average of all the polling, shows Obama +3% with some momentum still filtering through. Interestingly, Obama enjoys the same universal appeal that McCain does, the polls show him quite attractive to independents and Republicans have a favorable opinion.
I thought Obama did quite well last night. Clearly, his handlers focused on the need to look substantive, Obama was very detailed and achieved his goal of putting flesh on the rhetoric. Edwards also performed well, very passionate. Clinton did well, but there were hints of desperation and anger- she probably needed to do more.
This morning, former candidate Bill Bradley will endorse Obama:
"Barack Obama is building a broad new coalition that brings together Democrats, independents and Republicans by once again making idealism a central focus of our politics," Bradley said in a release scheduled to be released on Sunday.
"Because of his enormous appeal to Americans of all ages and backgrounds, Obama is the candidate best positioned to win in November. ... His movement for change could create a new era of American politics _ truly a new American story."
The significance of Bradley, who ran well in New Hampshire in 2000, isn't huge, but the fact that he plans to campaign with Obama tomorrow guarantees more positive press, on the eve of the primaries.