On the Democratic side, Iowa winner Obama has moved into a tie with Clinton. Both now have 33% of the vote. This represents a 6-point gain since December 2007 for Obama and a 12-point loss for Clinton. John Edwards has gained 5 points since December, moving from 15% to 20% support among Democrats. Edwards is now closer to the front-runner among Democrats than he has been at any point since Gallup began tracking the Democratic race more than a year ago. This is also the first time since June that Clinton has not held a statistically significant lead over the rest of her competitors. She had led by 27 points as recently as mid-November.
The Gallup findings are mirrored by the Rasmussen daily tracking poll. Last week Clinton had a 17% advantage. Today:
Before the Iowa caucuses, Clinton held a seventeen-point lead over Barack Obama. Today, that lead is down to four percentage points in a survey with a four-point margin of sampling error.
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s now Clinton 33%, Barack Obama 29% and John Edwards 20%
Staggering change, by any measure.
The latest CNN/WMUR poll for New Hampshire shows the race stabilizing, with little change from yesterday:
Obama 39% (yesterday 38%)
Clinton 30% (29%)
Edwards 16% (16%)
McCain 31% (32%)
Romney 26% (26%)
Huckabee 13% (14%)
All the polls average out to McCain +5% and Obama +8%. The real caveat for McCain, does Obamamania bleed more independents to the Democratic Primary, a block McCain needs to get over the top?