Thursday, January 10, 2008

McCain On The Move

McCain's win in New Hampshire sets the stage for a three man battle in Michigan with Mitt Romney and a surprisingly relevant Mick Huckabee, followed by the always decisive Republican primary in South Carolina. New polls (I can't help myself) suggest McCain is well placed for two crucial wins, that would catapult him to the nomination.

In Michigan, Romney has put all his advertising into the state, pulling ads from South Carolina and Florida, in a last ditch attempt to salvage his campaign. No polling conducted after New Hampshire, but McCain is already well placed:
Strategic Vision:

January 4-6, 2008. The margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

1. For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Republicans Only)

John McCain 29%
Mitt Romney 20%
Mike Huckabee 18%
Rudy Giuliani 13%
Fred Thompson 5%
Ron Paul 5%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Undecided 9%

Rossman Group:

01/06 - 01/07
Romney 22
McCain 18
Huckabee 23
Guiliani 8
Paul 4
Thompson 3

Of note, the SV poll is "Republicans only". Independents can vote in the Michigan primary, and with no Democratic race, due to suspension of delegates, McCain should benefit. Reading some of the press clippings, there are reports of Democrats showing up at McCain rallies, it will be interesting to see if independents and "McCain Democrats" put him over the top.

In 2000, South Carolina killed McCain's chances, mostly due to a backlash from the religious right and some dubious tactics by the Bush campaign. Two fresh polls, released after the New Hampshire results show McCain getting a nice bounce:
Fox News/Opinion R:

A new FOX News South Carolina Republican presidential primary poll shows McCain is now the front-runner with 25 percent, followed by Iowa caucus winner Huckabee at 18 percent and Romney at 17 percent. The results for all three top candidates are within the survey’s margin of sampling error.

Fred Thompson, who is from the neighboring state of Tennessee, captures the support of 9 percent, while Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul both receive 5 percent.

Rasmussen:

Arizona Senator John McCain, fresh from his victory in New Hampshire, has taken a narrow three-point lead over former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee in the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows McCain at 27% and Huckabee at 24%.

That’s a significant change since last Sunday. Just before the New Hampshire vote, Huckabee was leading McCain 28% to 21%. In mid-December, Huckabee and Romney were tied for the lead with 23% of the vote while McCain was well off the pace at 12%.

The current survey finds Mitt Romney running a distant third at 16%, little changed since the previous survey.

A new Florida poll shows Guiliani's once huge lead reduced to 5 points, with McCain and Huckabee close behind. Hard to see a scenario where Guiliani is still relevant, should McCain win Michigan and South Carolina.

As an aside, I found this quote on climate change by Mitt Romney. Remind you of anyone?:
"I really don't think it's productive for us to act solely on a unilateral basis to reduce our greenhouse gases if we have developing nations like China and India continue to increase their output of greenhouse gases and not be party to a greenhouse gas effort," he said

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

The election is being stolen from Mike Huckabee and handed to John McCain. The powers that be do not want a Christian in power who is not 100% pro-Israel. I do not believe the polls.

Steve V said...

The establishment might well line up behind McCain, because the simple fact, Huckabee can't win a general election, nonsense about Israel aside.

Mushroom said...

Anon 1:56

Who are you?

Talking about a conspiracy against Christians? Are you suggesting something with the Elders of the Protocol of Zion?

Congrats on being a Social Credit revivalist. Can you please reveal yourself more so we can introduce you to our Prime Minister?

Mushroom said...

"I really don't think it's productive for us to act solely on a unilateral basis to reduce our greenhouse gases if we have developing nations like China and India continue to increase their output of greenhouse gases and not be party to a greenhouse gas effort,"

I had suggested in a previous comment that Romney is the GOP version of Baird. This primary shows that if the Grits somehow encourage the Canadian Cons to dial up the nasty meter, they can self-destruct themselves.

There will be no comparisons between Romney and Harper. Harper threw away his ideology for the sake of a majority. Romney is in danger of throwing his track record in Massachusetts to win a primary.

Steve V said...

mushroom

That is pretty much verbatum Baird, especially the "unilateral" angle. The two share other similarities, they are both equally annoying and phony.

Mushroom said...

Steve,

I don't think Baird is phony. He was a nasty piece of work as a Harris Cabinet Minister and could be even more dangerous if Harper (or his wife???) does not occasionally tell his wife to shut up.

In the next election campaign, Dion should run attack ads targeted at Baird. His Bali record along with the one in Ontario would be baggage for Harper to overcome. At worst, it may salvage the province for us.

Scott Tribe said...

Actually Steve, this poll here shows Huckabee in the lead in Michigan, with Romney a pct point behind him, and McCain in 3rd, so I wouldn't get out the McCain bandwagon just yet. Remember your prediction regarding New Hampshire and Obama? :)

And I might also note, the largest liberal Democratic site in the US - Daily Kos - is now publicly ENDORSING Mitt Romney.. or at least, asking MI Democrats to vote for him in the open primary in a rather dastardly but hilarious plan, and don't think for a minute the site and Markos don't have enough influence to get significant Dems to do their plan.

McGuire said...

2 words as to why Huckabee is doing so well in Michigan: Reagan Democrats. If there ever was someone designed to appeal those folks it's Huck. They're socially conservative & economically populist, like Huck. He's gonna shock in Michigan.

Steve V said...

"Actually Steve, this poll here shows Huckabee in the lead in Michigan, with Romney a pct point behind him, and McCain in 3rd, so I wouldn't get out the McCain bandwagon just yet. Remember your prediction regarding New Hampshire and Obama? :)"

Scott, I posted that poll in my post :) I'm not suggesting anything absolute, but McCain is well positioned now to win the nomination.

BTW, my prediction was that if Obama won New Hampshire the race was over. I stand by that part of the equation.

Steve V said...

mcguire

You make a great point, which is why some are wondering why Huckabee is only campaigning in the state for a day this weekend.

Steve V said...

"don't think for a minute the site and Markos don't have enough influence to get significant Dems to do their plan."

Whenever Markos has mobilized the forces, his influence has turned out to be that of a paper tiger.

Scott Tribe said...

That's a bit unfair, Steve.

Without the netroots, Jon Tester, Steve Webb and several other Democratic candidates would not have won their campaigns. Several others in traditional Republican-held seats narrowly won, and it was the netroots who raised the majority of the money for those people to be ultra-competitive, who otherwise would have seen very little money from the Democratic Party, because they were viewed as not winnable seats.

Markos and Daily Kos were leaders in that aspect of the game - do not underestimate their influence or what the netroots can do - else I might start calling you an elitist ;)

Steve V said...

Scott

Fair enough, but I don't think Markos little fun will have much impact. I say this as someone who posted on Daily Kos from the beginning (I think my user id is 3000, now it's about 150000).

On predictions, feel free to visit my November 20th post, where I outlined how McCain still had a chance in New Hampshire, at a time when everyone considered him dead. Sorry ;)

Steve V said...

Just to be clear, McCain may very well lose. The Republican race is the most wide open since 1950, my post is just a plausible path, one of many in the mix.

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