In Michigan, Romney has put all his advertising into the state, pulling ads from South Carolina and Florida, in a last ditch attempt to salvage his campaign. No polling conducted after New Hampshire, but McCain is already well placed:
January 4-6, 2008. The margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
1. For the 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination whom would you support? (Republicans Only)
John McCain 29%
Mitt Romney 20%
Mike Huckabee 18%
Rudy Giuliani 13%
Fred Thompson 5%
Ron Paul 5%
Duncan Hunter 1%
01/06 - 01/07
Of note, the SV poll is "Republicans only". Independents can vote in the Michigan primary, and with no Democratic race, due to suspension of delegates, McCain should benefit. Reading some of the press clippings, there are reports of Democrats showing up at McCain rallies, it will be interesting to see if independents and "McCain Democrats" put him over the top.
In 2000, South Carolina killed McCain's chances, mostly due to a backlash from the religious right and some dubious tactics by the Bush campaign. Two fresh polls, released after the New Hampshire results show McCain getting a nice bounce:
Fox News/Opinion R:
A new FOX News South Carolina Republican presidential primary poll shows McCain is now the front-runner with 25 percent, followed by Iowa caucus winner Huckabee at 18 percent and Romney at 17 percent. The results for all three top candidates are within the survey’s margin of sampling error.
Fred Thompson, who is from the neighboring state of Tennessee, captures the support of 9 percent, while Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul both receive 5 percent.
Arizona Senator John McCain, fresh from his victory in New Hampshire, has taken a narrow three-point lead over former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee in the South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows McCain at 27% and Huckabee at 24%.
That’s a significant change since last Sunday. Just before the New Hampshire vote, Huckabee was leading McCain 28% to 21%. In mid-December, Huckabee and Romney were tied for the lead with 23% of the vote while McCain was well off the pace at 12%.
The current survey finds Mitt Romney running a distant third at 16%, little changed since the previous survey.
A new Florida poll shows Guiliani's once huge lead reduced to 5 points, with McCain and Huckabee close behind. Hard to see a scenario where Guiliani is still relevant, should McCain win Michigan and South Carolina.
As an aside, I found this quote on climate change by Mitt Romney. Remind you of anyone?:
"I really don't think it's productive for us to act solely on a unilateral basis to reduce our greenhouse gases if we have developing nations like China and India continue to increase their output of greenhouse gases and not be party to a greenhouse gas effort," he said