On Tuesday, we have the "Potomac" Primaries, with a healthy share of delegates at stake. Clinton is competing hard in Virgina, but by all indications, she is staring at an Obama sweep. Some polling:
Virginia (101 delegates):
Survey USA (Feb 8)
Insider Advantage (Feb 7)
Rasmussen (Feb 7)
Maryland (99 delegates):
Survey USA (Feb 8)
No numbers for DC, but everyone assumes that Obama will easily take the District. Conclusion, a healthy amount of delegates available, with Obama poised to win considerably more.
It seems every outlet has differing delegate numbers, which makes it hard to get a good read on the situation. However, you can see a worrying trend for Clinton, Obama now leads with pledged delegates:
Obama pledged: 969
Clinton pledged: 910
Obama has already surpassed Clinton with pledged delegates, this gap will only grow before the March 4 primaries (Wisconsin and Hawaii Feb 19, both are assumed strong for Obama). Obama will also surpass Clinton with in the dubious super-delegates included, dubious because they can change their minds, not to mention the decided anti-democratic flare.
There is also another fact, which tends to go under the radar, but may become a powerful argument, as Democrats look to break the deadlock. Obama has now won 18 states, to Clinton's 11. By the time we reach the March 4 showdown, Obama may well have doubled Clinton's state total. Imagine the spectre of a convention, wherein super-delegates give the nod to Clinton, without her leading in pledged delegate, or with Obama having won the majority of states, speaking to breadth of support. Ugly.
Obama will ride a wave of momentum heading into the March 4 contests. Don't be surprised if the framing takes hold that these primaries represent the make or break for Clinton. As the prospects of a brokered convention begin to sober the party brass, I see an effort to end this battle prior. Obama surges ahead prior to March 4, then Clinton forms her Guiliani firewall in Texas and Ohio. If Obama somehow manages to draw, which is conceivable, then Obama is sitting pretty, having racked up victory after victory, while Clinton waited, only to be denied what she needed.