Monday, February 25, 2008

Clinton, Polls, Sarcasm

Clinton seems to have stopped the bleeding in Ohio, maintaining a healthy lead, as the rhetoric sharpens:
Hillary Clinton holds a clear lead over rival Barack Obama in Ohio according to three new polls out Monday, though the Illinois senator is gaining ground in the crucial March 4 primary state.

New surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University, the University of Cincinnati, and the American Research Group all show Clinton with roughly a 10 point lead over Obama, with eight days to go until Ohioans head to the polls.

In the Quinnipiac University poll, Clinton leads Obama by 11 points (51- 40 percent). She holds an 8 point lead in the University of Cincinnati poll (47 percent to 39 percent), and a 10 point lead in the American Research Group poll (49 - 39 percent).

Clinton did enjoy a bigger lead a couple weeks ago, but the trends have flattened since, Obama stalled.

Some biting sarcasm:


The first Texas poll, to show Obama in the lead:
In the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Monday, 50 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said Obama is their choice for the party's nominee, while 46 percent backed Clinton.

But taking into account the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for Democratic respondents, the race is a virtual tie.

Clinton had a statistically insignificant 50 percent to 48 percent edge over Obama in last Monday's CNN/ORC poll in Texas.

"The 2-point gain for Obama and the 4-point drop for Clinton are both within the poll's sampling error, so although the survey appears to indicate some movement toward Obama, we cannot say for certain that he has gained any ground since last week," said CNN polling director Keating Holland.


Scott Tribe said...

Not so fast Steve:

Poll: Hillary Only Up 4 Points In Ohio

"Hillary Clinton is in big trouble," said Dean Debnam, president of PPP

Scott Tribe said...

While we're at it, this poll has the 2 in a statistical dead heat in Texas.

Hillary's campaign is over if these numbers hold or get better for Obama.

Steve V said...

Scott, I'm not being pro-Hillary here, just throwing it out. I posted the three polls I had seen today.

CNN, just posted a Texas poll. Last week it was Clinton 50Obama 48, after the debate Obama 50, Clinton 46.

Other polls how Clinton way up in Rhode Island, Obama way up in Vermont, the other contests.

If she were to win Ohio and lose Texas it's over, no doubt about it.

A BCer in Toronto said...

How many times bow have we heard that Obama has stalled? I've lost count. He was supposed to be dead and buried after New Hampshire.

Anyway, lets say Clinton takes Ohio by 10 points. With the delegates proportioned by the popular vote, and Obama's lead in committed delegates, Clinton will still be well behind the 8-ball.

Steve V said...

"He was supposed to be dead and buried after New Hampshire"

Who said that?

Jeff, she is in bad shape, no question. However, IF she were to win both states, then it keeps things in flux. One part about the math, they are going to have to deal with Florida and Michigan, everyone is starting to agree on that, so if Clinton stays close, then nothing is "finished".

Scott Tribe said...


You know all about "memes", and the meme out there in mainstream media land and pundit land is if she doesn't win both Texas and Ohio, and not only that, do so overwhelmingly, anything less and her campaign is over.

Her campaign may try to spin what you're suggesting about "stopping Obamarama" momentum, but no one outside of her partisan supporters will buy it, and I suspect she will come under tremendous pressure from the Democratic establishment to do so.

Steve V said...

Scott, we agree, except I'm not sure about the overwhelming part. That same media will look to keep this thing going, should she win these two big states, it might present a different frame.

Red Canuck said...

Steve - they are going to have to deal with Florida and Michigan, everyone is starting to agree on that

I haven't heard anything about an agreement to make any changes to the FLA and MI situation. Clinton has been pushing hard (with some rather weak arguments), but I didn't think the DNC had agreed to do anything about it. Have you heard news to the contrary?

Steve V said...

The DNC has given signals that there will need to be an "accomodation". Dean mentioned "re-running" the primaries, others have suggested a possible caucus. Nothing firm, but you get the indication that the DNC doesn't want the spectacle of a race decided without these delegates, not to mention bad feelings heading into the general.

KC said...

I cant see the Fl and Mi delegates being sat at the convention without a re-run of the primaries.

Steve V said...


That would hardly be fair for Obama.

Dame said...

She is a skirt wearer .. that is her biggest problem.... But again they are practically neck and neck... and all of you talk about the overwhelming win of Obama ...
I still Think Obama would be the biggest Blunder of recent times ///just like the big win of Sarkozy in France..//

marta /still your fan...lololol/

Steve V said...


Everyone has an opinion :)

The Mound of Sound said...

Check today's polls. Hillary is sinking. Whether that will translate into disaster in Texas and Ohio remains, of course, to be seen but the bones and the entrails don't look good.