Saturday, February 02, 2008

Edwards Supporters Split Evenly?

There are lots of factors at play in a fluid race, but two Democratic tracking polls seem to support the idea that John Edwards supporters have split evenly between Clinton and Obama. Gallup:
January 29:

Clinton 42%
Obama 36%
Edwards 12%

February 1:

Clinton 48%
Obama 41%

The February 1 rolling poll is the first with Edwards completely removed. If you take the 12% Edwards had on the last day of his campaign, you see that Hillary rose 6%, Obama 5%.

January 29:

Clinton 41%
Obama 32%
Edwards 12%

February 1:

Clinton 45%
Obama 37%

Clinton up 4%, Obama up 5%, with Edwards eliminated from the poll.

In both surveys, we see the vote pretty much evenly split. The problem, you can't just isolate this one factor as completely reflective. However, there is nothing to suggest that Edwards supporters have moved on masse to any one candidate.


Anonymous said...

No Hillary gained more than Obama in Edwards support. They polled even at 38% on Jan 29th single day.

She had lost ground because of the Kennedy endorsements.

The day after Edwards pulled out she went up 9%, to 47% Obama went up 6%, to 44%. She has gained slightly moreon him since then polling about 48 or 49% to his 41 percent, with the effect of the Kennedy endorsement wearing off and Sc moderated by the Florida win.

Hard to see immediately because the Kennedy endorsement happened two days before and the polls roll over three or four days, but she was dropping and then gained 2:1 Edwards supporters as is consistent with second choice polling of 40% to Clinton 25% to obama before Edwards pulled out.

Steve V said...

"Edwards supporters as is consistent with second choice polling of 40% to Clinton 25% to obama before Edwards pulled out."

That's not clear at all, that's one poll. Here's another:

But DiCamillo's survey of California Democrats taken earlier this month showed Obama taking more than twice as many Edwards supporters as Clinton - reducing her lead from 12 to 10 percentage points.

New Hampshire exits favored Obama as second choice, as did Nevada:

Asked their second choice in the entrance poll, four in 10 of Edwards’ supporters chose Obama while one-third chose Clinton.

SC and Florida:

In South Carolina and Florida, where exit polls asked voters how they'd feel if Clinton or Obama were the nominee, about equal percentages of Edwards's supporters said they'd be content with either.

It's a mixed bag, which might explain the even split. You should no better than to cherry pick one day on a rolling poll to suit your bias ;)