Friday, February 15, 2008

Texas Leans Clinton

Yesterday, I commented that there had yet to be any Texas polls released on the Democratic race. Well, today brings a slew of polls, all of which give Clinton the edge:
Rasmussen 02/14 Clinton 54 Obama 38 Clinton +16.0

InsiderAdvantage 02/14 Clinton 48 Obama 41 Clinton +7.0

TCUL/Hamilton 02/13 Clinton 49 Obama 41 Clinton +8.0

There is also another poll, ahead of Tuesday's Wisconsin primary, that confirms a tight race, Obama 47%, Clinton 42%, 11% Undecided.

The Ohio polls give Clinton a wide lead, if she can stay close in Wisconsin, take Texas and Ohio...well you know.

7 comments:

Red Canuck said...

As many of the commenters on Kos said, it's early days yet in the Texas, Ohio & Penn primaries. At the time these polls were taken, Obama hadn't really started campaigning in these states. Certainly all three of those states have demographics that would tend to favour Clinton, but she's going to need to win by big margings to accrue the necessary delegates. We'll have to see if 3+ weeks of Obama campaigning can cut into those double-digit poll leads...

Anonymous said...

Yeah, and this time Obama can leverage the two major union endorsements he picked up much more earlier in the process then he had time with when he got the culinary workers in Nevada. (UFCW and service employees)

Barring any gaffe in the media or at the upcoming debate, I expect those gaps to close quickly as we reach the voting dates, especially given the constant daily news that superdelegates are dropping her, combined with a potential Edwards endorsement.

With that being said, I do expect those supporters of Hillary who cant fathom the idea of her being defeated to a newcomer to put up a vicious last stand. She has already gone negative, and negative ads do work generally well in America.

-ITC

Steve V said...

You guys may well be right, but I must say I was somewhat surprised that Obama hadn't closed the gap already. These polls were done after Tuesday's whitewash, I actually expected closer numbers, in both Ohio and Texas.

What I'm thinking here has to do with the game of expectations. The media would love a few more twists in this plot, heck last week when early Virginia results showed Huckabee leading they were actually suggesting there was a real race in play- their fickleness is staggering. If Clinton gets a close result in Wisconsin, a basic delegate draw, I fully expect the "Hillary comeback?" stories to start making the rounds, the "Do we really know Obama?" microscope stuff. Maybe, maybe not, but one thing is for sure, candidates hate being the frontrunner, they run from the tag, they deny it, because everyone knows the media script, stick your head up and they'll try and knock it off, looking everywhere for the next Rocky. In many ways, Obama has already benefited from this psychology when he was the underdog.

KC said...

Steve -

American Research Group (Feb 15)
Obama - 48
Clinton - 42

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Steve V said...

kc

That is the most suspect polling outfit around. As a matter of fact, places like RCP has stopped publishing their results because they are so unreliable. Those numbers you posted tend to prove this again, because they show no relationship to anyone else. NONE.

KC said...

Thanks for the heads up Steve. I was unaware of that.

Miles Lunn said...

It would be intersting to see the demographics of the Texas Democrats. Obama is strong amonst Blacks (who make up a sizeable portion of the electorate, but not as large as other Southern states), Southern whites split pretty evenly, while the Latino vote heavily favours Clinton and they are quite large in Texas, about 3 times as large as the African-American community. The only problem here, is they split almost evenly between the Republicans and Democrats, while the African-American community goes 90% Democrat so of registered Democrats is probably more like only 2 times as large. You also have college towns like Austin which should be good for Obama and they have a high number of registered Democrats while larger cities like Houston and Dallas are probably more favourable to Clinton. In addition, is Texas a winner take all or divided by congressional district, since Obama seems to do better in the traditionally Republican congressional districts over the safe Democrat ones and most of Texas is Republican, but most registered Democrats live in the few Democrat pockets.