A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll suggests the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination between Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois is a statistical dead heat in Texas, which holds primaries March 4.
In the survey, out Monday, 50 percent of likely Democratic primary voters support Clinton as their choice for the party's nominee, with 48 percent backing Obama.
Likely Democratic primary voters view Clinton and Obama on roughly equal terms. Seventy-nine percent say they would be satisfied if Clinton were the nominee; an equal number feel the same way about Obama. Seventy-nine percent say it's likely Clinton can win the nomination; 82 percent say the same about Obama.
To be fair, there was also a American Research Poll released that has Obama with a six point advantage in Texas. I usually omit these polls, because from what I've read ARG is a very suspect, very suspicious outfit, so much so, places like RealClearPolitics no longer report their results. ARG also has Clinton up six points in Wisconsin, a result that shows no relationship to any other polling.
I've always assumed that Clinton would win Texas, it seemed a more natural fit than Ohio, a steeper hill for Obama. A lot will depend on what happens tomorrow in Wisconsin. Should Clinton surprise with a very close finish, or possibly a win, that could be enough to tip Texas. However, a solid Obama win and you would have to assume a deadheat leans to Obama, or at the very least assures a virtual tie. That scenario is basically the endgame for Obama, Clinton has to sweep the March 4th states, anything less just isn't enough.