Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Post Cadman Poll

Harris Decima, with a new poll taken over the weekend, which shows erosion for the Conservatives, in the wake of the Cadman affair:
A new poll suggests Stephen Harper's Conservatives have taken a beating in public opinion over the past week, but the opposition Liberals have done nothing to capitalize.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey had the two major parties in a statistical dead heat, with the Tories nominally ahead of the Liberals 31-30.

The governing party had been as high as 35 per cent in a previous Harris-Decima poll

While the Tories and Liberals appeared stalled, the NDP at 17 per cent and the Bloc Québécois at 8 per cent nationally were not big beneficiaries.

The survey's margin of error is 3.1 per cent, 19 times in 20, with wider margins for regional breakdowns.

The Green party, which has never elected an MP, rose to 13 per cent nationally and was actually a point ahead of the NDP in Ontario — 18-17.

There was an Angus Reid poll that asked what people thought of the Liberals budget reaction. These results might explain why the Liberals haven't capitalized on the Conservatives problems:
While Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion was critical of the budget, he immediately announced his party would not defeat Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority government.

Only 24 per cent of those polled supported his actions, with 51 per cent saying they disapproved of his performance.

You don't draw people to the fold by demonstrating weakness and conflicting rhetoric. That fact might explain why people are moving to the Greens as an alternative to the corrupt Conservatives. Also, that fact might temper the Conservative bleeding, the Liberals unable to get maximum traction, due to their own actions.

I've heard more than one Conservative apologist say the budget was well received, this scandal wasn't resonating with average Canadians. I would counter, we have our first evidence that those people are delusional, this one has to hurt, anything but "inside the beltway".

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

Interesting. Angus Reid/Toronto Star says CPC 34%, LPC 28%

Steve V said...

anon

Most of that AR was done as the story was developing, which is why I use this one for context. You will note, I referenced it in relation to the budget and the Liberals (wasn't kind), there is no bias here.

Ti-Guy said...

Just throwing this out...Do progressive bloggers think permitting the comments sections of their blogs to be hijacked by paid CPC shills (conveniently anonymous) is a good idea?

It really is cheap publicity for the Conservative Party, and one they don't have to show receipts for.

Paid shills should have to at least sign up for a Blogger account, which is the only respect I have for Wilson.

Joseph said...

Sorry if off-topic - I really do normally try not to do that.

But I respect your opinion, Steve. Maybe this might be worth its own post.

But why is the NDP so coy on going after the Cadman affair? Seems like they should be all over it. I find it interesting. Did they have their own discussions with Cadman, even if totally appropriate and they just want to stay out of it.

Or do they not like that strangely, Paul Martin is the only politician - aside from Cadman himself - who comes out seeming downright dignified in that messy week not so long ago. (I love the fact that the few cases of folks trying to claim this is some type of ancient history have gained NO traction).

rufous said...

"But why is the NDP so coy on going after the Cadman affair? Seems like they should be all over it. I find it interesting. "

A news media comment, CBC I think but not sure, to the effect that the NDP isn't all over it because they want to keep the focus on Liberal 'problems'.

Steve V said...

joseph

I've been wondering the same thing, the NDP stance on the ethic's committee seems strange, especially in light of Mulroney. I've heard a couple commentators suggest the NDP are worried that the Liberals might get too much traction from a hearing, they prefer a less public airing. Yesterday, when Layton rose and didn't speak on Cadman, I started to get very suspicious, but then later other NDP MP's brought up the matter. Still, I found it odd that most of the initial NDP reaction centered around "what did the Liberals know and when", sort of like digging for a nugget, when there is a boulder right beside you. Strange.

Steve V said...

ti-guy

I cull and prune from time to time, so it doesn't get outrageous.

A BCer in Toronto said...

The budget reaction may well temper any Liberal capitalization. However, I think it's still early to gauge the polling impact, if any, of the Cadman affair. It will take a little while to sink in, I think. We'll see in a few weeks. Not sure when Nanos is out next, but I recall him being quoted saying if the Cons don't nip this in the bud their brand could be in real trouble.

Steve V said...

" I think it's still early to gauge the polling impact, if any, of the Cadman affair. It will take a little while to sink in, I think."

I would tend to agree, but I see this as indication.

Gayle said...

I think it is likely the NDP do not want to allow the liberals to have any traction over this, which is why they are now going on about Martin having the book last year (by the way, does anyone think Martin did not actually read the book???).

I also suspect that the NDP do not want to give Dona Cadman any positive attention since they currently hold that seat.

RuralSandi said...

And, the sanctimony about abstaining from voting makes me laugh. I remember when Layton was on Toronto City counsel and he was suspended for a time because he was out protesting with Eaton employees instead of being at the council meetings - he makes laugh, and unfortunately most people don't know this stuff.

NDP want Liberals destroyed and they are probably also in a panic because the Green is climbing fast behind them.

Steve V said...

"NDP want Liberals destroyed and they are probably also in a panic because the Green is climbing fast behind them."

I believe this is the third poll to put the Greens in third, in Ontario. Quite remarkable, and not something to dismiss, given their impressive showing in the provincial election.

liberazzi said...

Much like the Leafs, where they are better off losing at this point, I was actually hoping for a worse result for the Libs. I was extremely disappointed in their budget cowardice last week, so I was hoping that the voters were going to teach them a lesson. However, a week is a long time...so along came the Cadman affair and I believe mitigated an even worse polling fate. Yet the Reid result at 28% is one of the lowest results in recent months, so that is worth noting.

Ti-Guy said...

I cull and prune from time to time, so it doesn't get outrageous.

Caring for the potted plants...I like that.

Still, when the election comes, they're going to swarming... with sock-puppets shilling and trolling (shrolling?) in droves. I really hope progressives just cut it off at that time. We've heard everything they've had to say, I'm sure.

Steve V said...

"I was extremely disappointed in their budget cowardice last week, so I was hoping that the voters were going to teach them a lesson."

Pretty embarassing today, listening to the Conservatives counting, as the 11 Liberals voted against the budget. The sense of pride you feel :)

ti-guy

Seems to be a struggle between freedom of opinion and honest discourse. I let most of it go, but then again, you could look at like this blog is my house, and I would never invite, nor talk, to these trolls, so why should I listen to the drivel here. If it gets silly, gradeschool, just meant to antagonize, what is the point?

It's a funny dynamic online, the minority in the real world, in this forum, the right is more vocal.

northwestern_lad said...

As to everyone's speculation about why the NDP isn't supporting taking this whole Cadman thing to the Ethics Committee is because of "concerns that any testimony heard there couldn't be used for future criminal prosecutions due to parliamentary privilege".

So to my Liberal friends, lets try to look past any possible political motivation here, because it seems like if this goes to the Ethics Committee that would destroy any chances of pursuing any possible criminal charges, if the RCMP were to find any. If there were laws broken, don't we want to make sure that those who broke them are prosecuted???

liberazzi said...

The Libs have put themselves in a pickle. If the voters continue to put them in the penalty box over their cowardice, then they will probably wait until the real election date. However, they have probably lost all credibility now, so their is probably no hope of their numbers going up to any degree. I think this Cadman thing will result in a pox on both your houses type of thing, with voters parking their votes with the Greens in disgust.

Joseph said...

I think all talk of were the liberals "cowardly" will vanish in an election.

This government will fall, they all do. It is convenient to agonize over it all.

But during an election, I doubt people think, "well, I would have voted for party x because I support their policies more. But only if they had brought down the government 6 months ago. No, not now."

I know that is simplified, but so is the over-magnification on the issue.