Thursday, May 22, 2008

New Poll

I'd be remiss, if I didn't mention the new Angus-Reid online poll, which shows a growing gap between the two principle parties, more signs of the "mountain" Dion needs to climb, to look credible with Canadians.

The horserace:
Overall, 34 per cent of respondents said they would vote Conservative if an election were held tomorrow, compared to 27 per cent who would vote Liberal. The New Democrats were in third place with 18 per cent support.

Last month's poll had the Conservatives at 33%, Liberals 30% and the NDP at 20%, Greens 8%. For context, the month prior had it 36-26% in favor of the Conservatives. Much of this looks to be simple bouncing around the margin of error, but Angus offers Dion's poor leadership numbers as partial reason:
Liberal Leader St├ęphane Dion's approval rating has sunk to its lowest level yet, with nine of 10 Canadians saying they disapprove or are not sure of his performance as the head of the party, according to the latest Toronto Star/Angus Reid opinion poll.

I'm not sure if "sunk" is the right word, given last month's poll had Dion at 11%, which is essentially the same. That said, you can't put lipstick on a pig, pretty much horrific numbers for Dion, as the article points out, lower that John Turner. One caveat here, Harper isn't exactly setting the world ablaze with his 32% approval, down 1% from last month, unmoved if you will. Harper looks good, but that is only in a relative sense, and his score merely matches the Conservative numbers.

None of this is surprising, Dion was never about to raise his leadership score, within the atmosphere of abstaining, that environment just cements "weak", "ineffectual". Before anyone brings up the "online" angle, every poll published mirrors the same challenges for Dion, so I take the numbers seriously.

What intrigues me, if Dion can move these numbers over the summer as he starts to flesh out his environmental plan. At the very least, the ideas should address some of the leadership question, astute policy aside. Time will tell. It sure can't hurt!

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wake me up when a reputable pollster checks in.

Anonymous said...

There have been countless other polls showing Dion with rock-bottom low approval ratings and also being a distant 3rd behind Harper AND Layton when people are asked who they want as PM. (but on the bright side he still has higher numbers than Elizabeth May)

Steve V said...

"Wake me up when a reputable pollster checks in."

Like this one, which mirrors the results. There is nothing outlandish here, and your kneejerk reaction doesn't seem to have any basis in fact, because if you look at the track record for this outfit, it's actually very good.

Antonio said...

I mean...if you cant get the sense from the political atmosphere that the Liberals are digging themselves into a hole, perhaps you need new senses.

Like I wrote over at red tory's site, Dion had the unfortunate circumstance of being in opposition and holding the balance of power, not good if your party is in shambles like it was after 1988.

the fact that the Liberals are so close in the polls, and dont have to wait 3 more years, is probably making some of them ever more impatient

liberazzi said...

Why would the Lib numbers being going down? This poll make no sense. Whatever...the real poll is coming in October

Justin said...

Last time I checked George Bush had an approval rating of 33%. Harper has 32%. Ouch!! That has got to hurt.

Steve V said...

"Why would the Lib numbers being going down?"

I think it's just margin of error noise. You'll notice the Cons didn't go up, and the NDP also fell 2 points. What seems to have happened here, the undecided vote went up.

Steve V said...

"Last time I checked George Bush had an approval rating of 33%."

The last one I saw had Bush down to 23% (zogby I think). So Harper can brag, I'm marginally more accepted than the least popular President in history. Woohoo!

Anonymous said...

with these numbers, Dion hasn't got much wiggle room to make his case. Perhaps, a cap and trade policy might be more succefully sold than a carbon tax. Run on cap and trade policy and implement tax shift policy later on. The Liberal party website keeps this option open.

Antonio said...

since all you Liberals are hopped up on hope...and probably showing how jaded I have actually become, I offer a quote that I posted on my blog...

since Liberals are looking for a way to sell a carbon tax...

can you identify who said this...

“We need hope.

Hope that our environment can be saved. Hope that Canada can make a positive difference for life on this planet.

Not false hope based on phony policies and empty promises.

But real hope.

Hope based on a clear vision. Hope based on the courage to make tough choices. Hope based on the ambition to effect real change and revolutionize the way we do environmental policy in Canada.

Hope based on real leadership.”

Steve V said...

antonio

That's funny, because I was thinking about Obama coat tails for Dion. The two couldn't be more different, but that recurring them coming from the American media, of a new kind of politics, might permeate here and Dion, with this policy, might be viewed as a departure from the "same old politics". Plus the two are peers in terms of oratory prowess, not to mention charisma ;)

Antonio said...

this quote pre-dates obama too

Steve V said...

Sorry, I just kneejerk react to Hope=Obama. Wonder why ;)

Iggy??