Friday, May 02, 2008

Ipsos Poll

First the numbers:
Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives command 34% in support among decided voters, compared with 29% for the Liberals, according to the nationwide survey, which was conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National.

The result is little changed from an Ipsos Reid poll on April 11, when the Conservatives posted 35% in support, compared with 30% for the Liberals.

The NDP registered 17% in the latest poll, up one percentage point, while the Greens rose one point to 11%

Interesting Quebec numbers, another poll shows growing NDP strength:
The Bloc Quebecois slipped two points to 31%, while the Liberals climbed three points to 26% and the Conservatives fell three points to 20%. The NDP sit at 17%, up five points, while the Greens fell two points to six per cent.

Quite different results from the recent CROP and Leger polls, but noteworthy considering Ipsos tends to "over-state" Conservative support (Don Martin National Post). Speaking of over-stating, I'm not buying these results in the least:
The Liberals remained at 38% and the Tories at 34%, while the Greens rose two points to 14% and the NDP dropped two points to 13%.

I also don't buy the analysis of Bricker, who says the in and out is "pretty confusing". It's actually fairly simple, "cheating" isn't a complex consideration, beyond the mundane details. I would counter with the overwhelming results by Decima, Innovative Research and Angus Reid, all of which say the scandal does matter. I suppose Conservatives will take comfort in these results, that's your prerogative, but I am quite comfortable thinking Bricker has it wrong. One small caveat, Bricker did acknowledge this hurts the Conservatives "lily white" image.

So, according to Ipsos no real change in the numbers, but I would counter that the Ontario results are clearly an outlier, relative to other polls, which would skew the national results. Ipsos remains the only pollster to show a close race in Ontario, given the movement after the Flaherty debacle, a weakening economy, coupled with this scandal, I see little reason to believe their results. Anybody who does, are simply ignoring the majority opinion, selecting what feeds their own wants.

I agree with one conclusion, the numbers won't really move until an election.

11 comments:

Rick said...

I think that the overall national numbers may be correct, but Ipsos is just embarrassing themselves with those Ontario and Quebec numbers.

The Tories may not 20 points behind the Libs in Ontario, but they aren't 2 points behind either. Somewhere between 6 and 10 is probably accurate

In Quebec, you just had Leger and CROP confirm the basic levels (27% or so for the Tories, 20% for the Libs) and those number areas are based on regional strengths. Ipsos obviously had a few too many Montreal respondents in their sample to give the Libs 26%.

So 34-30 it probably is, which means no Spring election, and I am not happy about that. I'm torn between who i want to win (except for the NDP of course), but I need some fresh ideas from both of the big 2.

Steve V said...

The thing with Ipsos, they had a statistical tie in late March, and since then the Libs have dropped 4, while the Cons haven't moved. You could certainly make arguments why the Libs may have dropped, but I find it very hard to believe that the Cons maintain during what has been the roughest patch for the government. That dynamic also tends to fly in the face of what others have shown.

You are probably right, in that Quebec and Ontario are off, in the wrong directions, essentially cancelling each other out, but there other provinces where they still might have it wrong. I guess what I'm saying, no fallout for the Cons, while the Libs fade seems counter-intuitive- if abstaining is eroding, that means people have noticed, which also means they have also noticed the Con amateur hour. Doesn't pass the smell test with me.

One thing that might be real, and this is clearly borne out elsewhere, the NDP seems to have some momentum in Quebec. A lot of Quebecers do seem to be fishing around.

liberazzi said...

These are a bit of odd results, considering what has been going on. Regardless of what you may think of the various Ipsos results, it shows that there is no real movement as you stated, which should be concerning to the Libs. However, I think the "strategic patience" strategy is still working against the Libs, plus the whole leadership question that continues to plague them at the moment. These questions will come to the forefront again this week or the next when they inevitably abstain on immigration or censorship, which will pretty much kill any momentum they may be gaining, in spite of these results.

Furthermore, if the Libs are hoping the economy will tank later this year, which in turn will theoretically give them a boost, isn't that somewhat crass to hope to cash in on the misfortunes of others i.e. the voters?

Finally, I like the idea of tax shifting. In fact, they are basically stealing the idea from the Greens. Yet, once again most Canadians will not go past the headline of what would appear to be a new tax. The plan then is to abstain and then once again do the bbq circuit, promoting this idea, which most voters will forget about when the election is finally called. The Libs overall strategic planning right now is dreadful and I think it is reflected in the polls at the moment. However, I guess they are doing their best to make-up for a weak and ineffective leader.

The Right is Where its At said...

Finally a liberal supporter (liberazzi) sees what Mr.S.Dion really is,that is a weak and ineffective leader.

There are other liberal blogs who are so blinded by hate against this government that they cannot see the truth when it is starring right into their faces.

Anonymous said...

Well, time for a Nanos poll.

I'm not surprised about the NDP and BLOC - they are the same - socialist parties - only one is a separatist group. Their political beliefs are the same.

Steve V said...

right

All I have to say, thank-god for Stephen Harper. Weak and ineffective, yet the Conservatives are stuck below their 2006 total, others well back. It really does point to the fact- Canadians just don't like Harper and his merry band of incompetents.

Anonymous said...

right.... gee, how about using your own words instead of Harper's talking points. Really makes you look uninformed.

Dion weak? I wonder. He takes a pounding day in day out and is still standing.

Harper - pouts, gets other to fight for him and even doesn't show up in the House when it gets a little too tough.

A person that is paranoid is "weak" - Harper is a total paranoid.

The Right is Where its At said...

"All I have to say, thank-god for Stephen Harper. Weak and ineffective, yet the Conservatives are stuck below their 2006 total, others well back. It really does point to the fact- Canadians just don't like Harper and his merry band of incompetents."

Steve lets recap at the negative press that this government has received in the last 2 years. Shall we?

Not necessarily in this order but you get the picture. The Kelowna accord,Afghan detainees,Chalk river,the Brenda Martin case,Kyoto accord,the Cadman affair and the so called "In And Out."
With the opposition parties pounding away at the Conservatives day in and day out in Question period,I think it's pretty amazing to me that the Conservatives are where they are in poll after poll. The fact of it all the liberals are afraid of an election.

To Anonymous post 9:59 a.m.:

"right.... gee, how about using your own words instead of Harper's talking points. Really makes you look uninformed.

Dion weak? I wonder. He takes a pounding day in day out and is still standing."

Now anon do you think that liberazzi is a Conservative? This is what he said about you're so called leader:

"The Libs overall strategic planning right now is dreadful and I think it is reflected in the polls at the moment. However, I guess they are doing their best to make-up for a weak and ineffective leader."

Read it anon its post 8:11 a.m. At least liberazzi had the courage to say it like it is. But anon don't let the facts get in you're way. Thanks for making my point that some on the liberal blogs cannot see the facts about Mr.S.Dion,because they are so blinded by hate against this government.

Steve V said...

right

The negative press? Are you sniffing glue, the Liberals have had MOUNTAINS more negative press than the Conservatives.

I can't take you seriously, please move on....

liberazzi said...

Let's be perfectly clear, I despise Harper and his gang of incompetent school yard bullies. Although, I have a feeling that little twerp Pierre got a pounding or two in his day. I believe much like Bush, that historians will rate this Con government as one of the worst in the history of this country. As a matter of reference, I do hold a membership, donate monthly and go to various events.

However, I am going to call a spade a spade and say the main reason the Libs are abstaining is because they have no confidence in Dion. You could also say that they lack financing and organization, but once again that can be attributed to the leader. I watch politics pretty closing by watching QP daily, keeping up with the news and going to the odd event. I have been to a few events where Dion has attended and his performances are very wooden and uninspiring. His performance in daily QP is quite frankly dreadful and he is continually outshined by his other colleagues. How else can you explain the fact that the polls continue to have no movement despite all the Con screw-ups, scandals and regressive policies? The RCMP raided their headquarters and still the Cons remain at around 35%! Do we think a summer on the bbq circuit is going to make a big difference? In fact it has been proven that the Cons numbers go up when parliament is not sitting!

Having said alllll that, I think if Dion could fluke out a minority, that he would make a very good prime minister, because of his intelligence and of his compassion. In addition he has a very strong and progressive team behind him. The question is whether the voters can see past the absent minded professor image and give the man and the party a chance? Doubtful at this point. However, I was also down on the Jays and they seem to have rebounded for the time being.

Antonio said...

Liberals ahead of the Tories in Quebec by 6%?

Yikes. Why even publish the poll?

The Ontario numbers are also quite startling. Tories have office raided, and catch up in Ontario!

The poll released last week showing Jean Charest in majority territory may have something to do with this.

The Bloc hovering around or below 30% is the best news yet. If Dion and Harper can make enough of a case in their respective strongholds, it could get really ugly for Gilles Duceppe. The NDP votes will rally to the strongest federalist candidate