Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives command 34% in support among decided voters, compared with 29% for the Liberals, according to the nationwide survey, which was conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National.
The result is little changed from an Ipsos Reid poll on April 11, when the Conservatives posted 35% in support, compared with 30% for the Liberals.
The NDP registered 17% in the latest poll, up one percentage point, while the Greens rose one point to 11%
Interesting Quebec numbers, another poll shows growing NDP strength:
The Bloc Quebecois slipped two points to 31%, while the Liberals climbed three points to 26% and the Conservatives fell three points to 20%. The NDP sit at 17%, up five points, while the Greens fell two points to six per cent.
Quite different results from the recent CROP and Leger polls, but noteworthy considering Ipsos tends to "over-state" Conservative support (Don Martin National Post). Speaking of over-stating, I'm not buying these results in the least:
The Liberals remained at 38% and the Tories at 34%, while the Greens rose two points to 14% and the NDP dropped two points to 13%.
I also don't buy the analysis of Bricker, who says the in and out is "pretty confusing". It's actually fairly simple, "cheating" isn't a complex consideration, beyond the mundane details. I would counter with the overwhelming results by Decima, Innovative Research and Angus Reid, all of which say the scandal does matter. I suppose Conservatives will take comfort in these results, that's your prerogative, but I am quite comfortable thinking Bricker has it wrong. One small caveat, Bricker did acknowledge this hurts the Conservatives "lily white" image.
So, according to Ipsos no real change in the numbers, but I would counter that the Ontario results are clearly an outlier, relative to other polls, which would skew the national results. Ipsos remains the only pollster to show a close race in Ontario, given the movement after the Flaherty debacle, a weakening economy, coupled with this scandal, I see little reason to believe their results. Anybody who does, are simply ignoring the majority opinion, selecting what feeds their own wants.
I agree with one conclusion, the numbers won't really move until an election.