It put the Conservatives’ popularity at 36 per cent, the Liberals at 30 per cent, the NDP at 14 per cent and the Green party at 10 per cent. Six per cent were undecided.
That puts the Conservative up two points since the last Ipsos poll(end of July), Liberals unchanged, same for the NDP, Greens down one. The Conservatives have their talking poll back, although I would mention that Decima has decidedly different results, and NANOS looks set to release a new one soon.
The strange part of this poll:
On party popularity, the survey said the Conservatives maintained their substantial lead in western Canada, and picked up support in Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada since early July so they are now in a statistical dead heat with the Liberals in those three regions. In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois had 34 per cent of the popular vote, well ahead of the Liberal and Conservative parties which were tied at 25 per cent.
Quite a different result from the last Ipsos poll, which had the Conservatives at a scant 18% in Quebec. The Liberals are down 2%, the Bloc 3%. I fail to see why there would be such a wide difference in the Conservatives numbers, although the margin of error tends to be 6%. This change explains Ipsos uptick in the Conservative numbers, take it for what it's worth.
Where I really think Ipsos has it wrong, the supposed statistical dead heats in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Now, Atlantic Canada numbers are always dubious, given the sample size size, so a sizeable "whatever" to that one. The Ontario numbers are consistent with Ipsos tending to show a much closer race than other pollsters. As a side note, NANOS just released an Ontario provincial poll, that put the Liberals up 10%. While you can't make the jump, that number is in line with the federal numbers most pollsters show for the province, another small indication of Ipsos possibly being an outlier. Until someone else verifies these numbers, I chalk it up to the usual with Ipsos, shorter version, sorry not buying.
A curious comment from the pollster:
“The Tories are competitive where they need to be competitive. The Liberals are competitive where they need to be competitive. If they do decide to throw down (the gauntlet), it’s going to be a very interesting fight.”
I confess to not understanding that comment, given the poll findings. If the Cons are statistically tied in Ontario, Atlantic Canada, then the Liberals would lose seats in areas where "they need to be competitive". Maybe he isn't sold either ;)
What is interesting, Canadians seem ready for an election:
The poll says the proportion of Canadians who favour an election “to clear the air” has risen to 40 per cent from 27 per cent in March. Moreover, the proportion of Canadians who said “there’s no need for an election at the moment” dropped dramatically to 38 per cent from 66 per cent. Almost one in four, or 23 per cent, said they did not know which statement best captured their views, up from seven per cent in March.
Pollster Darrell Bricker says the findings suggest signals from Harper and the Liberal leader that they are itching for an election fight are starting to have an impact on what Canadians are thinking.
Okay, let's go already.