Monday, August 18, 2008

New Poll

Ipsos Reid poll, on Canadians desire for an election, as well as the requisite horserace numbers. First the party numbers, not much change nationally, although an apparent swing in Quebec (cough):
It put the Conservatives’ popularity at 36 per cent, the Liberals at 30 per cent, the NDP at 14 per cent and the Green party at 10 per cent. Six per cent were undecided.

That puts the Conservative up two points since the last Ipsos poll(end of July), Liberals unchanged, same for the NDP, Greens down one. The Conservatives have their talking poll back, although I would mention that Decima has decidedly different results, and NANOS looks set to release a new one soon.

The strange part of this poll:
On party popularity, the survey said the Conservatives maintained their substantial lead in western Canada, and picked up support in Quebec, Ontario and Atlantic Canada since early July so they are now in a statistical dead heat with the Liberals in those three regions. In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois had 34 per cent of the popular vote, well ahead of the Liberal and Conservative parties which were tied at 25 per cent.

Quite a different result from the last Ipsos poll, which had the Conservatives at a scant 18% in Quebec. The Liberals are down 2%, the Bloc 3%. I fail to see why there would be such a wide difference in the Conservatives numbers, although the margin of error tends to be 6%. This change explains Ipsos uptick in the Conservative numbers, take it for what it's worth.

Where I really think Ipsos has it wrong, the supposed statistical dead heats in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. Now, Atlantic Canada numbers are always dubious, given the sample size size, so a sizeable "whatever" to that one. The Ontario numbers are consistent with Ipsos tending to show a much closer race than other pollsters. As a side note, NANOS just released an Ontario provincial poll, that put the Liberals up 10%. While you can't make the jump, that number is in line with the federal numbers most pollsters show for the province, another small indication of Ipsos possibly being an outlier. Until someone else verifies these numbers, I chalk it up to the usual with Ipsos, shorter version, sorry not buying.

A curious comment from the pollster:
“The Tories are competitive where they need to be competitive. The Liberals are competitive where they need to be competitive. If they do decide to throw down (the gauntlet), it’s going to be a very interesting fight.”

I confess to not understanding that comment, given the poll findings. If the Cons are statistically tied in Ontario, Atlantic Canada, then the Liberals would lose seats in areas where "they need to be competitive". Maybe he isn't sold either ;)

What is interesting, Canadians seem ready for an election:
The poll says the proportion of Canadians who favour an election “to clear the air” has risen to 40 per cent from 27 per cent in March. Moreover, the proportion of Canadians who said “there’s no need for an election at the moment” dropped dramatically to 38 per cent from 66 per cent. Almost one in four, or 23 per cent, said they did not know which statement best captured their views, up from seven per cent in March.

Pollster Darrell Bricker says the findings suggest signals from Harper and the Liberal leader that they are itching for an election fight are starting to have an impact on what Canadians are thinking.

Okay, let's go already.

16 comments:

Steve V said...

And, before I get the "cherry picking" my polls crack from a Con, lets keep in mind that Ipsos had the Cons winning by 11% on the last day for 2006 (won by 6%) and the Liberals up 1% in 2004 (won by 7%). They've always understated the Liberal support, and the reverse for the Conservatives. Them's the facts.

Anonymous said...

I have a question more than a comment. If the Cons won another minority - would the GG have the power to deny Harper forming a government? After all, he is claiming he cannot manage with a minority - let him ask for his election! Comment: I think the vote from NDPers would be interesting. If they hate the CONS as much as they claim - the should be voting this government out. By voting for Jack Layton they are ensuring that the CONS stay in power. We have Harper and his CONS because of Jack Layton. Krist knows what Harper had promised him and what he's promising him now.

Anonymous said...

With a majority of Canadians now accepting of an election to clear the air, I don't think Harper will be too concerned about going to the GG, if he ever was. It does look like the country is now in an irreversible election track.

Anonymous said...

I wonder why we're not hearing more from Liberal pollster Nanos.

Anonymous said...

I think that if the Liberals and NDP combined had over 155 seats - the NDP would make an agreement with the Liberals. But that is unlikely - so an anti-CPC minority government would require BQ support and there is ZERO chance that the BQ would ever support a Dion-led gov't.

Steve V said...

"I wonder why we're not hearing more from Liberal pollster Nanos"

Are you really this dumb? I mean seriously. The guy nails the last election, down to decimal points, and that somehow equates to a pro-Liberal pollster. Accuracy means bias, gotcha. Ladies and gentlemen, Harper's base...

Steve V said...

anon

And, it's probably suicide for anyone to work with the separatists.

Anonymous said...

"I think the vote from NDPers would be interesting. If they hate the CONS as much as they claim - the should be voting this government out. By voting for Jack Layton they are ensuring that the CONS stay in power."

FOR THE LOVE OF MIKE! If the Liberals really believe this, then why in the sam-heck have they supported this awful government at every single bloody occasion, where the NDP has consistently voted against them?

By getting suckered into voting for the Liberals last time Canadians ironically ensured that Harper could do exactly what he wants! Many of these changes are irreversible, but the Liberals only care about their own party's interest, not anyone else's.

To this day Liberals cannot get over being rejected by Canadians at the polls. They should have spent their time in serious reflection and rebuilding their party from the bottom up, but instead have fallen back on a series of stunts, and a borrowed regressive tax policy that masquerades as an environment policy from an even wackier party.

Get over your sense of entitlement. The NDP is not morally obligated to put you Liberals back in office. They are morally obligated to oppose Harper while you're too busy navel-gazing and in-fighting and hyperbolizing to do the job properly.

Steve V said...

anon

Deep breaths. One question, if Layton really believes "we must get rid of the Harper government", doesn't that mean he wants a Liberal government, seeing as though they are the only option, pure delusional fantasies aside. I mean, it's just an inherent contradiction, if he actually believes this in principle, then the NDP shouldn't run candidates in the 275 odd riding that they finished third in 2006 and have no chance of taking. Now, that would get rid of Harper. It's time for bottomlines, we can't afford the double speak.

Steve V said...

Sorry, that maybe a bit harsh, but the funny thing is it's true.

Anonymous said...

Nic Nanos got all kinds of federal government polling contracts when the Libs were in power. Also his spin on
his polling results always put the Liberals in the best light.

Why is he so quiet all of a sudden. Is is possible he's polling but the results are not being made public because a) he's doing the Liberal internals or b) he doesn't want to publicize the results which put his main client/potential future client in a bad light.

Steve, please. All of these pollsters have political connections, let's not be naive about it.

Steve V said...

"Why is he so quiet all of a sudden."

He polls every quarter you colossal asshat. Hippo-sized YAWN.

RuralSandi said...

Nanos - Liberal bias...choke. Is this Anon for real?

Nanos never has put polls out as often as the others.

CPC paranoia - why, cause Stevie Harper told them there was Liberal bias...and they believe him LOL, what fools.

Anonymous said...

"One question, if Layton really believes "we must get rid of the Harper government", doesn't that mean he wants a Liberal government, seeing as though they are the only option, pure delusional fantasies aside."

I'm sure you've talked this over at some length with the Liberal leader in Nova Scotia. Because it's not the Liberals who are about to replace Conservative premier Rodney McDonald down east. It's the party that was *never* going to form the government...

Deb Prothero said...

Nik Nanos printed an article on his website last Tuesday.

http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/75

This wasn't a poll but it gives a flavour of what he's thinking.

As Steve noted, the Nanos polls are quarterly; the last two posted to his website on April 11th and on July 7th.

Steve V said...

"I'm sure you've talked this over at some length with the Liberal leader in Nova Scotia. Because it's not the Liberals who are about to replace Conservative premier Rodney McDonald down east."

And what exactly does that have to do with Harper???