Friday, August 29, 2008

Conservatives Fading In Ontario

I finally had a look at the Decima regional numbers, which provide more bad news for the Conservatives, and some interesting results on which party is preferred on an array of issues. Much like NANOS, the Decima poll shows clear erosion for the Conservatives in Ontario:
In Ontario, latest results show the Liberals leading with 47%, the Conservatives with 29,the NDP at 14%, and the Greens at 9%.

Averaging three weeks, the Liberals lead with 41% compared to the Conservatives at 30%, the NDP at 15% and the Greens at 12%.

Using the three week average, the Conservatives are at their LOWEST point in any Decima poll taken since 2006. Using the last week of polling, that gap is simply staggering, if it were to hold it would represent a Liberal romp in the province. Just to add, given what has happened the past few days, I don't see any rebound on the horizon. So, NANOS and Decima both show the Conservatives fading, the Liberal opening a double digit lead.

The Quebec numbers provide more bad news for the Conservatives:


In Quebec the latest week shows the BQ at 35%, the Liberals 26%, the Conservatives 19%, the NDP 11% and the Greens with 7%.

Averaging three weeks, the BQ leads with 32%, the Liberals are at 28%, followed by the Conservatives at 21%, 8% for the NDP and 7% for the Green Party.

Compared with NANOS, the Bloc number is the same, the only difference, Decima shows the Liberals a well placed second. Maybe Chantal Hebert is right, people taking another look at the Liberals? Whatever, another poll that rejects the CROP offering, still waiting for duplication.

To be fair, the Liberals have tailed off in British Columbia (high MOE), which explains why the national numbers don't show much movement overall, compared to the last poll. British Columbia and Atlantic Canada:
In BC, three week averages show the Conservatives at 32%, NDP 28%, Liberals 23% and the Green Party at 15%.

In Atlantic Canada, three-week averages show Liberals with 40%, the Conservatives at 35%, the NDP 15%, and the Greens at 8%.

Overall, once again, the devil is in the details, details which I must say provide Liberal encouragement.

Decima also compared the parties on various issues, with some noteworthy results. The Conservatives hold a 10% edge on taxes, 7% on defence, but only a scant 6% on the economy (that is the closest margin I've seen to date, so the trend is bad for the Conservatives). Striking, on the "trust in leader" question, there is only a small 5% gap in favor of the Conservatives, one would expect more. The parties are tied on the question of "trust in the party".

For the Liberals, up 10% on foreign affairs, 10% on child care, 9% on the environment, 8% on health care and 13% on aborginal issues. The Liberal gaps on their strength issues outweigh the difference for the Conservatives, another decent sign.

Conclusion:

Maybe Harper should meet with Dion ;)

UPDATE

Hat tip to Big City Lib

The bad news for the Conservatives is relentless, especially when you consider the fact that in the last two elections Ipsos overstated Conservative support, while simulatenously understating Liberal support (off by about 6-7% overall).

I'll just spit it out:
Since Ipsos Reid completed its last poll of voting intentions on Aug. 14, national support for the Conservatives has dropped three percentage points while the Liberals and NDP saw their support grow by one point and two points respectively. Support for the Greens was unchanged.

National Results:

Conservative: 33 per cent (down 3 points since Aug. 14)

Liberal: 31 per cent (up 1 point)

NDP: 16 per cent (up 2 points)

Green Party: 10 per cent (unchanged)

Regional Results:

Atlantic Canada

NDP: 37 per cent

Liberals: 29 per cent

Conservatives: 23 per cent

Green Party: 7 per cent

Quebec

Bloc Quebecois: 34 per cent

Liberal: 27 per cent

Conservatives: 21 per cent

NDP: 10 per cent

Green Party: 8 per cent

Ontario

Liberal: 41 per cent

Conservative: 29 per cent

NDP: 16 per cent

Green Party: 13 per cent

Manitoba and Saskatchewan

Conservative: 40 per cent

NDP: 32 per cent

Liberal: 24 per cent

Green Party: 4 per cent

Alberta

Conservative: 71 per cent

Liberals: 15 per cent

NDP: 7 per cent

Green Party: 6 per cent

British Columbia

Conservative: 45 per cent

Liberal: 25 per cent

NDP: 16 per cent

Green Party: 13 per cent


You do the math :)

18 comments:

bigcitylib said...

Ipsos just released. Tories down 3, Libs up one. I've got first release and links. Go do your poll-reading voodoo thing!

Steve V said...

Wow, when Ipsos has it statistically tied, the Libs up 10% in Ontario, 6% in Quebec, it's baaaaaaaaad news.

It's funny BCL, because as I was doing this post, I actually thought that Ipsos was due, maybe it provide a life raft for the Conservatives morale. NOPE!

Northern PoV said...

hey guys keep it down

we don't want the fool to change his mind at this point

;-)

Steve V said...

Sorry 12% lead in Ontario! And, you have to love that 71% for the Cons in Alberta.

northern

Apparently people aren't buying the Harper rationale. Has a government ever rushed into an election, while simultaneously tanking in the polls? The chess masters.

Steve V said...

Just to add, Ipsos had a statistical tie in Ontario for their last poll (which I scoffed at BTW). That aside, to go from that to a 12% margin is a big shift, mirrored by others, safe bet to eliminate the question mark from the title of the post.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

So, with so much bad news for the Conservatives, why do you think Dion is hesitating?

Steve V said...

LOL. He's not hesitating, it's called posturing. Good grief, are you people serious with this crap.

BTW, I actually did laugh, even a little spittle :)

bigcitylib said...

Steve,

Does the NDP leading in Maritimes make sense to you?

Steve V said...

That looks like an anomaly there for sure, I think the MOE is around 10% or more with Ipsos. It would be nice for someone to do a Atlantic Canada only poll. Decima has the NDP 15%, Ipsos at 37%.

knb said...

Hesitating Joanne? He said he'd meet yesterday or Wednesday. Harper said, 'no can do'.

What is it about facts that you and yours reject? I don't get that.

Are you and your's so blinded by your love of Harper that you are missing reality? Deficient in your ability to grasp what is?

I think so and I have to say, I love that you are telling your sorry story. Up close and personal now.

Perfect!

JimmE said...

Steve & bigcitylib:
Wacha wanna bet these maritime #'s are from one riding & that riding is in Halifucinfax?
... an aside from the VP post
Scott Tribe
The Dems got about 2/3 the votes the Reps got in the run off. If Ted looses I will eat the whole salmon I caught last week in one go! ; )
(Either way I win)

JimmE said...

There should be a letter campaign to the GG asking her to ask another party to attempt to form a govenrnment.

Miles Lunn said...

One cannot help but think these polls are bad news for the Tories. Especially in Ontario they have really taken a fall and I don't think the reasons are too hard to speculate on. My guess is Harper wants an election now since he figures things will get even worse for him. One blogger even suggested he might actually be hoping to lose, since if the recession gets worse and Dion introduces the Green Tax during the middle of it, he is hoping he or at least his party can comeback, off course this would be a pure gamble. Will see what happens as the Tories are good at campaigning, but I still wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Liberals win this.

Miles Lunn said...

Well at least the Tories have one poll to cheer about, Angus-Reid gave them a 36-28% lead although a 3% deficit in Ontario. Still this strikes me as probably a rogue poll. At least hopefully there recent BC poll where the BC Liberals who were 10-15 points ahead in June are now trailing the NDP is also one too. Still considering past campaigns have had as much as a 10 point swing during the course of a campaign a majority for either the Liberals or Conservatives is at least possible, although doubtful. In many ways a Liberal majority might make more sense as they have more room for growth amongst soft NDP and soft Green voters. The Tories only group they can gain from is some right leaning Liberals and undecided.

Steve V said...

"My guess is Harper wants an election now since he figures things will get even worse for him."

Hey miles. I think you may be right, a decision that the Cons are passed their best before date and their on the road to rancid.

I saw the Angus poll, and I'm discounting it, simply because the Ontario numbers are so clearly out of whack, and the Liberals in the 20's is hard to swallow, given the simple fact that two other pollsters now have that their highest nationally since the last election.

19 out of 20 :)

Miles Lunn said...

I too think the Angus is a bit out although interestingly enough their Ontario numbers are not too far off what the Tories were earlier. In fact 29-30% is the lowest we've seen the Tories in Ontario since 2006. This worse than what John Tory got and worse than Harper in 2004 so pretty dismal numbers if you ask me. I won't say the Tories will lose the election, in fact I would still say it is really a toss-up at this point, but I think had they waited another month or two the odds would be against them and even then another weak minority would be their best case scenario, whereas now their worse case scenario is opposition with around 90 seats and their base case scenario is a strengthened minority around 140 seats.

Platty said...

LOL. He's not hesitating, it's called posturing.

It's called missing the boat, yet again, Dion fails to stand his ground. Says one thing and then does another.

And, yet again, playing "Follow the leader" showing Canadians that he is indeed not one himself.

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