Thursday, April 01, 2010


The new EKOS shows little change week to week. I find the Green numbers striking, EKOS consistently shows strong support, that doesn't necessarily translate to other pollsters. The Conservatives and Liberals are both down, leaving the gap in tact. Something to watch for next week, the Conservative numbers tumble further in the last three days of the polling. Nationally:
Conservatives: 32.2 (-1.1)
Liberals: 27.0 (-0.7)
NDP: 16.0 (+0.1)
Green: 12.7 (+2.3)
Bloc Quebecois: 9.0 (-0.8) (35.9 (-3.3) in Quebec)
Other: 3.1 (+0.3)

No evidence of any "bounce" per se coming out of the Thinkers Conference. However, with the particularly poor Liberal preamble, one could argue this event allowed the party to change the channel. Whatever, the Liberal numbers are down slightly, the erosion consistent week to week. Most of the decline comes in Ontario, where the Liberal number is as low as we've seen this year:
Ontario (MoE 3.93)
Conservatives: 35.3 (-1.3)
Liberals: 32.8 (-2.2)
NDP: 15.4 (-1.2)
Green: 13.8 (+3.5)
Other: 2.7 (+1.2)

Ontario is volatile for the principal parties, but EKOS shows a consistent high Green vote. This week the Greens surge again, with the MOE of the NDP- not the first time we've seen this result. To be honest, I don't know if these numbers are real, because other pollsters simply don't replicate. Nanos pegs support around 7%, Angus Reid the same, although they've had the Greens up to 10%. No matter, despite all this talk that the environment is a "dead" issue, the Green vote shows no signs of falter, even indications of further inroads. Part of this may go beyond a single issue, morphing into a protest component for those tired of the whole political system. I tend to believe this angst is real and growing, which is why the traditional parties would be wise to pay attention.


Tomm said...


There is no green vote. Some people are parking their votes there (5-7%?) because it is a type of protest. It isn't real this time, just like it wasn't real last time.

The better question is the weakness of both major parties. The most popular party is only polling 32%. The Liberal's are mimicking their lowest numbers since ...forever.

The best thing that could happen is for the electorate to fall asleep for 20 years, wake up refreshed and then pick a party. Everybody is just burnt out.

Steve V said...

"There is no green vote."

Maybe you need to review polling vs actual election tallies, because in this province, the Greens have translated to the ballot box. Don't kid yourself, just because you're predisposed, the facts are clear. That said, maybe 14% is a touch high, but there is a core vote that is very, very real.