The new EKOS shows some minor change, but really the key storyline- how can the Liberals get some traction? Part of the Liberal dip this week is due to a bizarre 18% tally on the first day of polling. If you remove this 20 out of 20 anomaly, then the numbers really haven't changed week to week. However, that quirk isn't relevant to the wider problem the Liberals face, namely this wall of support hovering around 30%.
It would seem the Jaffer/Guergis affair isn't having much impact, and while the Conservatives are down a couple percent since this blew up, the Liberals have received no benefit. I'd add, although we don't have the actual release, Angus Reid also went on record earlier in the week, stating their polling showed no change, the Conservatives still enjoy a decent lead. That reaffirmation does tend to demonstrate a inherent problem with the Liberal brand, but that's hardly news. Factor in a basic fact, namely that the Conservatives and Harper are eroding in terms of perception, the inability to capitalize becomes more acute. At the moment, it's a "least worst" proposition, which does provide opportunity, but also shows just how tarnished and entirely unmotivating.
The Liberals are doing a good job releasing bits of policy, and those announcements might bear fruit over time. Beyond that, it seems to me the imperative is actually rocking the boat a bit, grabbing attention, in a way that forces people to take a brief moment to notice. There's a certain blandness that hovers around the Liberals, and conventional tactics don't seem to bear fruit.
This isn't a doom and gloom post, because ultimately the more you criticize the Liberals circumstance, the more it highlights the failings of the Conservatives, that they can't take advantage (this works in reverse as well). On top of that, the NDP rarely achieve their 2008 percentage, further evidence that they aren't exactly resonating or capitalizing on discontent with the principles. Using the wide lens, it's a depressing picture, wherein voters simply find nothing to get behind in any compelling way, their bored silly and Ottawa is a distant irritant.
Coke and dubious characters sells newspapers, but when it comes to vote intention, it would appear it does little to reinvent the political landscape.