One number everyone will be watching, Mulcair's first ballot percentage. Some talk about a Mulcair first ballot win here at the NDP convention, but I think that would be a stunner. The conventional wisdom is multiple votes, and within that a conversation about what Mulcair needs on the critical initial ballot.
I'm thinking 35% is a key number for Mulcair, anything above that and he takes on an air of inevitability. Rather than a real alternative emerging, a unifying sense develops and serious challenge looks remote. Factor in a muddled field behind Mulcair, and it's hard to see the wheels coming off, whether he inches or surges, 50%would look to be within his grasp.
On the other hand, should Mulcair come in around 30%, a couple percent either way, then this race looks wide open, everything in play. With so many reasonably strong contenders, Mulcair could end up with the lead, but not a pronounced one that looks unstoppable. A number on the low end could still work for Muclair because of a "divided opposition", but I see much intrigue should he fail to reach this arbitrary threshold.
I'll be looking for how the second to fifth shakeout, fully expecting a surprise within. Equally important, if Mulcair can meet expectations on the first ballot, create a sense of inevitability and in turn win without much consternation.
Mulcair '12 = Ignatieff '06
and we all know how that turned out.
Except Mulcair already has one guy in his pocket and this second choice dynamic, plus pre-votes, make it much different I think.
The 'second choice' ballot mechanism has to concern him, especially if he cannot show that he is the candidate of choice on the first ballot.
My guess is that someone will come up the middle.
Wow. Muclair didn't reach the magic number. Topp's higher than I thought he would be. Nash and Dewar lower. Ashton below Singh. Interesting turn of events.
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