Saturday, March 24, 2012

Second Ballot Results: Mulcair Grows

Results from the second ballot:
Mulcair: 23902(38%) Topp:15624(25%) Cullen:12595(19%) Nash:10519(16.8%)

Reads of this blog will recall I thought the Martin Singh factor was something to watch on the second ballot. Indeed, that scenario looks to be critical as Mulcair comes out of the second ballot with the most growth, a full 8% more than his first ballot score. With Singh encouraging his supporters to put Mulcair as second choice, they've been activated in this round creating perceived momentum, relative to the others. I suspect when the dust settles we will see Singh delivered a high percentage of support to Mulcair.

Nash is out, as pointed out the classic convention floor move to another candidate muted by the preferential vote, much is written in stone, impact less than old style brokering. Conventional wisdom on the floor many Nash supporters would have Topp as second choice, but that remains to be seen, I suspect a more divided breakdown. While Topp is still viable, he is a full 15% behind Mulcair, which means he requires a monolithic move to his side, a scenario which looks a reach, given the format.

Really hard to see Cullen going anywhere now, so far back, without a confined room of real time voting, I can't see the momentum to pull it off. However, assuming Cullen drops off the next vote, it will be fascinating where his vote breakdown. Many see some synergy with the Mulcair campaign, but I'm not convinced, suspect a fractured dispersion.

I think we're in for two more votes. I'll be looking to see if Mulcair can get to 42-45%, that should be enough to put him over the final ballot. Again, this format doesn't lend itself to dramatic consensus moves at this stage.

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