Tuesday, March 06, 2012


The first robocall specific poll is out from Angus Reid and it provides little comfort for the Conservatives. The poll also reveals the opposition will find much support in pushing for further inquiry. As well, on a couple key questions, there is some consensus across party lines.

The opposition should ramp up the calls for a full public inquiry, that is shrewd politically and the concept finds overwhelming support with votes, even Conservatives:
81% want an independent investigation to find out exactly who was behind any misleading robocalls that may have been made in the May 2011 federal election...including 72% of Conservative voters

That is a big number, rarely do you see such unanimity on any question, even more striking the large majority of Conservative supporters on side. If the opposition really ramp up the calls for a public inquiry, there is a VERY sympathetic audience.

As I mentioned in the last post, a real tug of war politically revolving around isolating the robocalls, is it a "one off" or is it "systematic". This poll shows the Conservatives face headwinds:
64% think the Guelph incident is “probably’ or “definitely” one of many that took place in the last campaign...only 18% think it isolated.

I would argue the above also supports the need for a public inquiry, as people clearly aren't buying the Conservative argument this is a rogue affair, in only one riding, they suspect more are in play.

As it relates to resonance, an even split, 50% following very closely or moderately close, 50% not much or not at all. Relatively, a pretty strong number as to the "water cooler" element, and perhaps moreso when you consider percentage of people who actually vote.

Another interesting finding, voters were asked if there should be by-elections in "every riding that was the subject of misleading robocalls should have a by-election as soon as possible." 50% of voters agreed, 37% don't, a finding which provides fodder for possible recounts. As well, 44% of people believe robocalls have "changed the outcome" of the federal election, 36% don't agree, concerning in that this controversy is undermining our democratic confidence.

This is a quite a bad poll for the government side, people aren't buying their arguments and they believe further inquiry is warranted, in overwhelming fashion. These results give the opposition some ammunition to keep up an aggressive posture, people are concerned and people are questioning.


Owen Gray said...

This puts the Nanos poll in doubt. But, then, I think it always was.

Steve V said...

Bit of apples and oranges really. Nanos did find the Cons slipping in Ontario, second spot, so the "steady" narrative was a bit deceiving I thought.

Tof KW said...

It's apples and oranges because the latest Nanos poll was conducted between Feb 25-29, and it was only in those last two days of sampling that the 'robocall' scandal became news.

I'd say the latest EKOS and this A-R poll are closer to the public mood right now. Both pollsters were sampling during the media buzz.

Steve V said...

It's also apples and oranges because this poll is specifically asking robocall questions, no horserace stuff. Curious to see if they saw an real movement.

Zorpheous said...

but but but, the CPC have a majority, a MANDATE!!!

Jerry Prager said...

what comes to mind is that the Con line of "it was the Liberals" convinced enough of their own members that it must be true, therefor they want an investigation too, don't think Harper wanted that, since all roads lead back to him and his rat hole PMO.
I nominate Peter Millikin to head the probe.

sharonapple88 said...

but but but, the CPC have a majority, a MANDATE!!!

Strong stable majority forever!!11!!!!

After prodding the Liberals to release their phone records if the Liberals had nothing to hide, it looks like Bob Rae plans to do it. Interesting to see what the Conservatives next move will be after this. I could see why they might not want to the same.