Monday, January 07, 2008

Obama Rolling Nationally

I've been waiting for some national polls to see if the Obama "phenomenon" is spreading. The Clinton firewall, her very large lead nationally, which would set her up for Super Tuesday. That lead has evaporated in short order, according to Gallup:
On the Democratic side, Iowa winner Obama has moved into a tie with Clinton. Both now have 33% of the vote. This represents a 6-point gain since December 2007 for Obama and a 12-point loss for Clinton. John Edwards has gained 5 points since December, moving from 15% to 20% support among Democrats. Edwards is now closer to the front-runner among Democrats than he has been at any point since Gallup began tracking the Democratic race more than a year ago. This is also the first time since June that Clinton has not held a statistically significant lead over the rest of her competitors. She had led by 27 points as recently as mid-November.

The Gallup findings are mirrored by the Rasmussen daily tracking poll. Last week Clinton had a 17% advantage. Today:
Before the Iowa caucuses, Clinton held a seventeen-point lead over Barack Obama. Today, that lead is down to four percentage points in a survey with a four-point margin of sampling error.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s now Clinton 33%, Barack Obama 29% and John Edwards 20%

Staggering change, by any measure.

The latest CNN/WMUR poll for New Hampshire shows the race stabilizing, with little change from yesterday:
Democrats:

Obama 39% (yesterday 38%)
Clinton 30% (29%)
Edwards 16% (16%)

Republicans

McCain 31% (32%)
Romney 26% (26%)
Huckabee 13% (14%)

All the polls average out to McCain +5% and Obama +8%. The real caveat for McCain, does Obamamania bleed more independents to the Democratic Primary, a block McCain needs to get over the top?

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

Rasmussen is famous for distorting against Clinton, so is Real Clear Poltics in which polls they keep and which they drop. However Rasmussen polls for NH are very interesting.

Obama reached a high on the 5th. His numbers have been coming down since then, and fast.

Rasmussen, 4th Obama by 10%
Rasmussen, 4-5th Obama by 12%, which means he polls up by 14% on Saturday.

Rasmussen, 5th-6th Obama by 10%, which means he polled only 6% after the debates on Sunday.

Rasmussen, now here comes the bias keeps the 5th in their poll, whiich is an outlier and a normal high in a bounce for anyone coming out of Iowa, always happens. But it should be tossed from the averages. Anyways 5,6,7th Obama 7%

So Obama only polled 1% above Clinton last night.

HE polled 14% higher on the 5th
6% higher on the 6th
1% higher on the 7th
for an rolling average of 7% above Clinton.

You know what that means, a firm that hates Clinton has them polling even going into the polls.

I think he will still win because of the hype, however he will not win by a large amount, perhaps 35%-38% a 3% Margin. Which will play as losing momentum from Iowa. It will also be chalked up to the shortened time between the two primaries, in that her numbers were going up and his down.

This is part of why polling is banned beofre elections in Canda and for good reason. They distort the results. If Rasmussen was not intentionally trying to distort the results they wouuld simply have done a very valid one day poll last night, which would have shown a much tighter race.

There could however be an upset tonight, if and its a big if, young voters get complacent and dont come out assuming he's going to win and hard core democrats come out in record number to ensure 17 year olds and independents dont decide who their nominee is.

The press also started to examine Mr. obama a little more closely yesterday, finally, which is really their responsibility which they have been shirking.


I dont think she will regain that much, but its a slim possibility. She would however have overtaken him in a few more days, which will be reported, and the entire compressed primary season will be questioned for independence and validity and you know what, the rest of American's 300 million people really dont want to let 400,000 Iowans decide who becomes President.

We'll see.

National polls, not enough right now, biased Rasmussen, Iowa blip. No press examination of the man, which is about to happen. Useless right now to even look at them.

Anonymous said...

If Obama was really interested in change he could do a truly historic thing - if he wins as president, make Hillary his running mate.

Historically - first black president and first female VP - she deserves it after all that she has done for the black people of America.

Is he man enough to do it?

Anonymous said...

Neither Clinton nor Obama will pick the other as running mate. They can't bring states to the dem side for the other. Both appeal to the same states. Iowa and NH vote republican by the way, in general elections. NY, Michigan, etc. might have something to say about their choice.

Steve V said...

"Rasmussen is famous for distorting against Clinton, so is Real Clear Poltics in which polls they keep and which they drop."

Talk about distortion, all the polls are on RCP, EVERY SINGLE ONE. Anon, you are guilty of seeing what you want to see, with little relationship to reality. Your blind allegiance won't let you recognize an objective truth- Obama did see a huge bounce from Iowa, and this isn't a "blip". If you actually think voters will be "complacent" tonight, then you must be living under a gigantic, soundproof rock, bathed in a protective gel of bias. I get your resistence to Obama, but can you not acknowledge anything?

Steve V said...

Just to add, to this nonsense about an agenda and distortion, Gallup, one of the most respected pollsters, actually has Obama tied with Clinton, while Rasmussen still shows a slight Clinton lead. Is Gallup part of the conspiracy??? What nonsense.

Steve V said...

By all accounts, voters are "flooding to the polls" this morning, with officials predicting a record turnout.

The Democrats are running out of ballots:

Turnout is absolutely huge and towns are starting to get concerned that they may not have enough ballots," Scanlan said. "We are working on those issues. Everything else seems to be going smoothly."

Scanlan said that the Secretary of State's office is sending additional ballots to Portsmouth and Keene (traditionally Democratic strongholds), Hudson (Republican leaning with significant numbers of independents) and Pelham (large number of independents).

According to Scanlan, the ballot strain seems to be on Democratic ballots, which suggests that the undeclared voters are breaking for the Democratic primary.

Deanne said...

Everyone needs to go take a look at the website for the church that Obama goes to, it is listed on his website. This is directly from the church's website:
We are a congregation which is Unashamedly Black and Unapologetically Christian... Our roots in the Black religious experience and tradition are deep, lasting and permanent. We are an African people, and remain "true to our native land," the mother continent, the cradle of civilization. God has superintended our pilgrimage through the days of slavery, the days of segregation, and the long night of racism. It is God who gives us the strength and courage to continuously address injustice as a people, and as a congregation. We constantly affirm our trust in God through cultural expression of a Black worship service and ministries which address the Black Community.

The Pastor as well as the membership of Trinity United Church of Christ is committed to a 10-point Vision:

A congregation committed to ADORATION.
A congregation preaching SALVATION.
A congregation actively seeking RECONCILIATION.
A congregation with a non-negotiable COMMITMENT TO AFRICA.
A congregation committed to BIBLICAL EDUCATION.
A congregation committed to CULTURAL EDUCATION.
A congregation committed to the HISTORICAL EDUCATION OF AFRICAN PEOPLE IN DIASPORA.
A congregation committed to LIBERATION.
A congregation committed to RESTORATION.
A congregation working towards ECONOMIC PARITY.
C

Anonymous said...

FYI reports from NH show greater older voter turnout, lower youth turnout. 5% lower independent turnout for Dems than lst time. This race is going to come in closer than polled. Cokie roberts nailed it she said Obama needs to sustain record numbers of youth voters in every state not just Iowa, whether or not he can dothat is yet to be seen. Clinton may even have a chance. She will however get to claim victory if she is closer than 9%

They dont call it the Iowa cure for nothing.

Anonymous said...

Steve I clearly siad RCP distorts based on which polls they keep up and which they drop, and it is biased against Clinton. For two weeks they kept a poll on the Dem side they had eliminated on the Repub side that showed Clinton lower. You have to read these things the polls and the web sites more carefully if you want to talk about them all the time. Know what you are talking about. Really.

Anonymous said...

ABC News' Gary Langer Reports: "Based on preliminary exit poll results from the New Hampshire primaries, Independents are turning out in substantial but customary numbers.

Preliminary exit poll results indicate that just over four in 10 voters in the New Hampshire Democratic primary are independents, compared with 48 percent in 2004 and a record 50 percent in 1992.

In the Republican primary, preliminary results indicate again that about four in 10 are independents, similar to the previous high of 42 percent in 2000.



Preliminary results don't indicate higher turnout among young voters, as a share of the electorate.

The preliminary exit poll results indicate that about one in six Democratic voters are under age 30; that's similar to what it was in 2004 (14 percent) and its peak, 17 percent, in 1992. Turnout among young voters was up in the Iowa Democratic caucuses. Instead, in New Hampshire, turnout among seniors in the Democratic race looks to be up from 2004, to nearly two in 10."

Steve V said...

anon

A 9% loss is now a victory, when she lead by 6% five days ago?? Good luck spinning that one. My goodness, you are a beauty.

The polls show 4 in 10 Democratic voters today are independents, 3 in 10 for the Republicans. "Change" was easily the most cited response on the Democratic side, leadership and personal integrity on the Republican side.

McCain might be hurt by the independent split, but he should benefit from the older voter turnout, with whom he does well.

deanne

I've read this elsewhere, can you provide a link??

Steve V said...

An exit poll conducted for WCVB-TV and TheBostonChannel.com found that 56 percent of voters in the Democratic primary made their decision based on the candidate they best felt could bring about "needed change."

Eighteen percent voted for a candidate because he or she had the right experience and only 7 percent said the "best chance to win in November" was the major factor in their decision

Steve V said...

"You have to read these things the polls and the web sites more carefully if you want to talk about them all the time. Know what you are talking about. Really."

You're crazy. There is no anti-Clinton bias on Real Clear Politics, they just post the results, in order of release or days polled. This discussion we are having is frankly nonsense, and you are in denial. I can't help you with that. Good day.

Anonymous said...

Are you watching the early returns. Clinton is leading with 10% of polls reporting? Who is it with blinder on. Who is it skewing polls?? Let me see.

I do think Obama could still win and has done very well, but bounce is bounce and 17 year olds are still 17 year olds that's all.

Ultimately the race will be a better one where hopefully both Clinton and Obama can be cahllenged on substantive issues. it doesnt serve anyone to declare a contest over before it starts or by into media rock star hysteria.

The whole planet benfits from sober second thought, which is what New Hampshire has done, even if he pulls ahead. its no runaway victory for anyone.

Anonymous said...

Steve you are absolutely wrong about real clear politics. you obviously dont visit it enough or dont pay enough attention to know what you are talking about.

ps did you read my post about Clinton even or even pulling ahead in the final day. Guess what?

Learn to read the polls critically if you are going to spout off on them.

Anonymous said...

Steve you needed to review the fact that Obama really only got 30%in Iowa, tied with Hillary. The 38%was swing from Richardson and Edwards non viables.

Iowa distorts and is often not kind to the winners because they seem to have more support than they really do and the losers seem to have less. Then the press is shocked at the come back in NH, even without the compression and the distortion from Saturdays bounce, which did come down.

Playing up his numbers doesnt help. It makes it looks like he lost bigger tonight when really he's gone up from 30% to whatever he gets, looks like 36% right now.

But it will look like a big Clinton comeback, that's the top story out of NH.

Anonymous said...

The exit polls have been released now. Clinton won 40% to Obama's 36%. Her support was solid. His wasn't. He did gain ground from Iowa's 30% going in, but not enough.

Moral of the story. 17 and 18 year olds are 17 and 18 year olds. And all the ones who really lived somewhere else but voted in Iowa, can't vote in their home states now, and won't be there to organize for Feb 5th.

Steve V said...

anon

Let me just say this, there is nothing you have said in the past few days that is persuasive. Now, you can point to what happened tonight as some vindication, but I think more the monkey and the keyboard to be frank.

Deanne said...

Steve V
here is the link:
http://www.tucc.org