Conservatives Fading In Ontario

I finally had a look at the Decima regional numbers, which provide more bad news for the Conservatives, and some interesting results on which party is preferred on an array of issues. Much like NANOS, the Decima poll shows clear erosion for the Conservatives in Ontario:

In Ontario, latest results show the Liberals leading with 47%, the Conservatives with 29,the NDP at 14%, and the Greens at 9%.

Averaging three weeks, the Liberals lead with 41% compared to the Conservatives at 30%, the NDP at 15% and the Greens at 12%.

Using the three week average, the Conservatives are at their LOWEST point in any Decima poll taken since 2006. Using the last week of polling, that gap is simply staggering, if it were to hold it would represent a Liberal romp in the province. Just to add, given what has happened the past few days, I don't see any rebound on the horizon. So, NANOS and Decima both show the Conservatives fading, the Liberal opening a double digit lead.

The Quebec numbers provide more bad news for the Conservatives:

In Quebec the latest week shows the BQ at 35%, the Liberals 26%, the Conservatives 19%, the NDP 11% and the Greens with 7%.

Averaging three weeks, the BQ leads with 32%, the Liberals are at 28%, followed by the Conservatives at 21%, 8% for the NDP and 7% for the Green Party.
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Compared with NANOS, the Bloc number is the same, the only difference, Decima shows the Liberals a well placed second. Maybe Chantal Hebert is right, people taking another look at the Liberals? Whatever, another poll that rejects the CROP offering, still waiting for duplication.

To be fair, the Liberals have tailed off in British Columbia (high MOE), which explains why the national numbers don't show much movement overall, compared to the last poll. British Columbia and Atlantic Canada:

In BC, three week averages show the Conservatives at 32%, NDP 28%, Liberals 23% and the Green Party at 15%.

In Atlantic Canada, three-week averages show Liberals with 40%, the Conservatives at 35%, the NDP 15%, and the Greens at 8%.

Overall, once again, the devil is in the details, details which I must say provide Liberal encouragement.

Decima also compared the parties on various issues, with some noteworthy results. The Conservatives hold a 10% edge on taxes, 7% on defence, but only a scant 6% on the economy (that is the closest margin I've seen to date, so the trend is bad for the Conservatives). Striking, on the "trust in leader" question, there is only a small 5% gap in favor of the Conservatives, one would expect more. The parties are tied on the question of "trust in the party".

For the Liberals, up 10% on foreign affairs, 10% on child care, 9% on the environment, 8% on health care and 13% on aborginal issues. The Liberal gaps on their strength issues outweigh the difference for the Conservatives, another decent sign.

Conclusion:

Maybe Harper should meet with Dion ;)

UPDATE

Hat tip to Big City Lib

The bad news for the Conservatives is relentless, especially when you consider the fact that in the last two elections Ipsos overstated Conservative support, while simulatenously understating Liberal support (off by about 6-7% overall).

I'll just spit it out:

Since Ipsos Reid completed its last poll of voting intentions on Aug. 14, national support for the Conservatives has dropped three percentage points while the Liberals and NDP saw their support grow by one point and two points respectively. Support for the Greens was unchanged.

National Results:

Conservative: 33 per cent (down 3 points since Aug. 14)

Liberal: 31 per cent (up 1 point)

NDP: 16 per cent (up 2 points)

Green Party: 10 per cent (unchanged)

Regional Results:

Atlantic Canada

NDP: 37 per cent

Liberals: 29 per cent

Conservatives: 23 per cent

Green Party: 7 per cent

Quebec

Bloc Quebecois: 34 per cent

Liberal: 27 per cent

Conservatives: 21 per cent

NDP: 10 per cent

Green Party: 8 per cent

Ontario

Liberal: 41 per cent

Conservative: 29 per cent

NDP: 16 per cent

Green Party: 13 per cent

Manitoba and Saskatchewan

Conservative: 40 per cent

NDP: 32 per cent

Liberal: 24 per cent

Green Party: 4 per cent

Alberta

Conservative: 71 per cent

Liberals: 15 per cent

NDP: 7 per cent

Green Party: 6 per cent

British Columbia

Conservative: 45 per cent

Liberal: 25 per cent

NDP: 16 per cent

Green Party: 13 per cent

You do the math :)