A curious post, on a day when Conservative strength is supposedly demonstrated with a fresh Quebec poll, and yet the picture from the street tells a different tale, or so it appears. Let's just say "well placed source", which provides a glimpse into Harper's manic drive for an immediate election.
Impolitical offers an interesting post, which details why the Conservatives may actually be fading in a riding they should be demonstrating some momentum, if the latest poll is too be believed. Just to add to that sentiment, it would appear that the Conservatives internal polling for St. Lambert shows erosion, in fact the Liberals look suddenly competitive, so much so the words "potential upset" were uttered without laughter. Yes, not only are the Conservatives life or death to hold second in Guelph, the supposed bellweather, they are poised for third in St. Lambert. Much can change, but the trends are decidedly bad, and the Conservatives KNOW IT.
And, it starts to make sense. The worst case scenario, the by-elections demonstrate ZERO momentum for the Conservatives in Quebec, a potential disaster in Guelph, left to answer questions on disappointing results, the Liberals the potential story. While theoretical provincial results comfort Conservatives, their own feedback on the ground suggests otherwise, they are running scared, based on their own information. Couple this, with a sense from the Liberal campaign that things are going "very well" and the suddenly hyperactive Harper is revealed.
Avoid September 8th at all costs, that is a chief driving factor, and Harper's urgency is consistent with that reality.