Thursday, August 28, 2008

New Decima Poll

No big changes from the last Decima poll two weeks ago, still a statistical tie:
In the last week, the Liberals stood at 34 per cent, the Conservatives at 33 per cent.

The New Democrats were well back, at 15 per cent support, followed by the Green Party at 11 per cent and nine per cent for the Bloc Quebecois.

The last three week average result had it 33% for both parties, the NDP and Greens unchanged, the Bloc at 7%. No regionals released yet, but one can assume the Bloc number is up in Quebec, moving out of the tie with the Liberals.

Will have to wait to see the three-week average, but if the 34% holds, that will be a high water mark for Liberal support in any Decima poll since the last election.

Update later, once the internals are released, but if they are similar to the last Decima regionals, a statistical tie translates to razor slim Liberal minority.

41 comments:

bigcitylib said...

Esp. want sub-sample from Que. Explain why yesterday's CROP Poll sucks. Make it good.

Steve V said...

BCL

I should be about 250, a quarter of CROP. Obviously, people will point to the bigger CROP poll as indicative, plus it's a Quebec firm, but I'll say it again, if you look at the regionals for these national polls in the leadup to the last election, they were pretty accurate.

I would also add, there doesn't seem to be anything to support a sudden uptick for the Cons in Quebec, unless of course cutting cultural funding is a plus. You could argue, Duceppe has been largely quiet over the summer, so the result might just be the typical scenario where lack of temporary limelight translates.

IMO, Duceppe is an able campaigner, he will do well in any debate, and he has plenty to hammer Harper on. If he plays the "stop a Harper majority" card in Quebec, paints himself as the leader of the party that can keep a right-wing agenda at bay, one would have to think that plays well.

Mushroom said...

What do you make of the regional breakdowns of the CROP poll? Any possibility of growth potential in the Quebec rural regions for Dion?

A BCer in Toronto said...

Maybe they're only cutting anglo art. Don't put it past them...

Anyway, overall the numbers say it's anyone's to take. The best campaign with the least mistakes and the best luck will take it. I like our chances.

Steve V said...

Also, we should really be able to bite into NDP support if this is true ;)

"What's interesting about Mr. Dion is he's certainly the Liberal leader that has taken his party farthest to the left, at least since Mr. Trudeau, if not farther than Mr. Trudeau," Harper told reporters here on the last day of a tour of the Canadian Arctic."

tori said...

"I should be about 250, a quarter of CROP. Obviously, people will point to the bigger CROP poll as indicative..."

And they'd be correct.

Steve V said...

"Any possibility of growth potential in the Quebec rural regions for Dion?"

That might be wishful thinking, we don't even appear part of the conversation in those regions.

tori said...

and yes, I'd be saying the same thing if the results were reversed

Steve V said...

tori

Sure you would. Please.

tori said...

yeah, actually steve, I would.

tori said...

it would suck, but it would be very hard to ignore the diff in sample size.

you generally are spot on with any poll analysis- even when it is bad for your party, or good for someone else's.

Steve V said...

And, you generally only show up when you are arguing for the Con side ;)

Steve V said...

Besides, I don't think anyone would argue with the fact that Quebec is fluid, and ultimately it will all come down to the campaign.

Mushroom said...

"Maybe they're only cutting anglo art. Don't put it past them..."

Verner threw a caboodle of dosh for the Quebec 400 celebrations. Bringing Celine Dion and Paul McCartney in a mid-summer feel good factor. That is cooture for them.

Steve V said...

Here are the last Quebec offerings from all the pollsters:


Ipsos:

B-34% L-25% C-25

Environics (500 sample):

B-36% L-24% C-22%

Decima:

L-30% B-29% C-24%

Strategic Counsel

B-46% L-22% C-16%

Nanos:

B-44% C-23% L-22%


Now, if CROP is accurate, wouldn't you expect at least ONE other outfit to show similar results? Even with a smaller sample, law of averages somebody would hit CROP's projections, and yet everyone else suggests something different. Hence my scepticism, the lack of others replicating the results is noteworthy, to say the least.

Gayle said...

Looks like the only poll that counts is just around the corner!

I see the CPC are getting all kinds of free air time with their new "Harper is such a nice guy" ad.

By the way, Flanagan pissed me off so I added a little bonus to my monthly LPC donation this month.

Anonymous said...

CROP is to La Presse what Ipsos is to Canwest.

Steve V said...

"By the way, Flanagan pissed me off so I added a little bonus to my monthly LPC donation this month."

I did that a couple weeks ago :)


Hey, a positive ad!!! Some are speculating that the Cons may go positive in the campaign, to counteract all the previous crap. Good luck turning Harper into the touchy, feely guy, nobody will buy that- stiff as a board and that is cemented. Strong leader, decisive, okay whatever, nice guy, ya right.

Mushroom said...

So the results will be:

Bloc 29-46
Grits 22-30
Cons 16-25

These numbers are similar to the Saint-Lambert by-election, the Bloc ahead with the Grits and Cons fighting for the federalist vote.

Gayle said...

All the LPC would have to do is show a couple clips from QP and contrast them with the CPC ads. It would not even be going negative; it would be going honest.

Gayle said...

Seriously - if they want to go positive it is because they know Dion will do so, and that he has the reputation for sincerity and honesty on his side. In which case they would be reacting rather than leading, no?

Steve V said...

I just don't think Harper works all positive in such, it's completely against everything Canadians have seen, so it will look like propaganda. Probably shouldn't say this, but the Cons are better off with the hard hitting stuff, it's their nature, seems more realistic to voters.

Steve V said...

mushroom

Even the La Presse reporter today, speaking about this poll, acknowledged that the Cons are not doing well in St Lambert.

Mushroom said...

"Probably shouldn't say this, but the Cons are better off with the hard hitting stuff, it's their nature, seems more realistic to voters."

Then there is much more mileage for Harper to go hard right. Start attacking illegal immigrants, calling Dion a fetus killer etc. Sending the parents of young offenders to jail. This is my absolute fantasy of an election campaign.

Joseph said...

When I clicked on the CTV news report to see the ad, I first had to watch the preview ad for the new horror flick "FEAR U" - now THAT was a fitting intro to the warm and fuzzy Harper.

Since I posted this on a an older entry that no one is really reading, I'll ask it here.

Gayle and Steve suggested the Cadman related trial would probably be delayed due to the election.

There may be an obvious answer, but my question is why would the case be delayed?

It is the conservatives case, after all. I just don't see the grounds for a judge to say, "Yeah, wouldn't want to hurt your election chances, let's push things back to November." Seems just as likely he'd say, "Why don't you hammer out an agreement. Otherwise, see you in the courtroom. Carry on."

And, in a related way, why shouldn't the Liberals use the tape in ads in the meantime? It is a public tape. No ruling has been made on its use.

I can think of practical reasons not to, including not wanting to piss off the judge. But you know, I also think if you're going to fight the battle, then fight the battle. Why set weapons aside, particularly since the conservatives clearly want the injunction because they are fearful they'll have to hear it in ads.

Harper has never denied the content of what he said on the tape, or answered questions as to what was going on with his party in that situation, or what he knew, or what he did to "investigate" it within the party.

The opposition should demand answers, and a campaign is as good a forum as any to demand them.

I am not advocating it should be the basis of an entire campaign. But why shouldn't it be brought up?

knb said...

I don't think the positive ad's will be the norm throughout the campaign. As the journalist pointed out, they are designed to soften up the audience who hasn't been paying attention during the summer.

Will they take? Well I think it's a long shot, there is just too much of nasty (read the real guy) Harper out there.

As to the court case, how precisely could it be delayed?

Jason Hickman said...

Probably shouldn't say this, but the Cons are better off with the hard hitting stuff, it's their nature, seems more realistic to voters.

Not necessarily. Compare the CPC's overall approach in '04 vs. '06. Sure, there was hard-hitting in the latter campaign, but it was balanced with more positive images, messages & policies.

And whether you think CROP, Decima or someone else is the best, I think most of the pre-election polling will prove irrelevant once the campaign gets going.

Steve V said...

jason

Everyone likes to commend the Cons for their 06 campaign, but really they benefited from the Libs self-imploding and a timely fake scandal, which changed the polls 10% overnight. Not to say the Cons weren't disciplined, but all they had to do is stay above the fray, given the circumstances. Will they more balanced then they have been the last two and half years? Of course, but nasty is the mindset, and the lure of attacking a "tax" will play heavily, especially if nobody breaks away.

As for the polls, I don't think they are irrelevant, they represent the starting point, but obviously the campaign is everything.

Mushroom said...

"Compare the CPC's overall approach in '04 vs. '06."

In '06 they hired professional actors to do the "Stand Up for Canada" ads. It worked because the Cons tapped the right message. Not sure about '08. Since leadership will become the topic the Cons want to run on, I expect the nasty ads to be rolled out to complement the ones you see now.

JimmE said...

Jason: "pre-election polling will prove irrelevant "
This is not always the case, pre writ gives one an idea of where the starting point is. From the Grit POV last Ont. election - pre & post writ were about the same numbers the campaign stayed on message, & the Torys & Dippers looked disorganized. Last Fed. election - your point is valid... up to a point. It was Martin who looked like the deer in headlights & the present PM was the boy in the plastic bubble.

Anonymous said...

The Conservs are dead in the water in Saint Lambert.
The bridge promise and a two time loser candidate finished them off.

JimmE said...

- Oh, BTW interesting comment over on Mr K's blog. One of his readers claims the REAL reason for the present PM wanting an election so soon is the Grits will not get their $2million from Elections Canada until later this fall. If true, I would TOTALLY pull a dick move like that if I were in the present PM's shoes
; (-)

Gayle said...

Joseph - I believe the case will be adjourned because the Plaintiff, Stephen Harper, will be unavailable. I guess the judge could say no to the adjournment, but you may see the liberals agreeing to it.

As for the tape, at this point it's authenticity is in question (not by me, but that very question is before the courts). If the LPC use it, and the court then orders an injunction due to the questionable authenticity, there may be an argument any damage claim can be increased as the LPC had notice the authenticity was in question before they used it.

Joseph said...

Thanks for the response, Gayle.

I think the Liberals should strongly resist any attempts by Harper to request a delay in the hearing.

Do understand on the other. I'd find some way to work the issue into the debate then, short of playing the tape itself (damn it ; ).

liberazzi said...

Nanos is releasing a new poll at midnight on his website. He says that is shows that both the Libs and Cons have something to be worried about with an election around the corner. Also, the numbers show something interesting about the Bloc and Dips in Quebec? Can't wait for th big show this week! I think Ill put a little extra in the Libs coffers as well. The arrogance to suggest that the Libs will "fade away".

Gayle said...

joseph - I do not think the LPC would use the tape anyway if they are trying to run as the "clean" campaign. No doubt they would like to have it played in the media though - again the libel chill will rule that out.

lib - if everyone topped up their donation this month as a result of Flanagan's shenanigans, the LPC would look pretty good and Flanny would look pretty bad.

I sent one of my colleagues a link to the article and he cut a cheque.

Mushroom said...

Just from the Nik on the numbers website.

Tories 35, Grits 34, NDP 17, Bloc 9, Green 6

The Green Shift is working. Don't know the regional splits though.

Mushroom said...

Got the numbers wrong. Much better for the Grits

Grits 35, Cons 33, NDP 17, Greens 7

Steve V said...

Where are you getting this mushroom, I can't find it?

Steve V said...

Found it :)

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