Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Angus Reid Poll

The new Angus Reid poll shows little change, the Conservative 4% advantage remains. A good result for the NDP, both on the party front and regarding Layton's leadership. Unlike yesterday's "release", this pollster actually has a favorable track record and earned credibility.

Tie in Ontario, British Columbia. Relatively low Liberals score in Quebec. Unusually high NDP score in Ontario, could be an outlier.

Results Here


Thanks to Scott Tribe, Harris Decima is also out with a poll. Liberals and Conservatives deadlocked at 31% each, NDP 16%, Greens 12%. HD also shows a tight race in British Columbia. Gregg calls the "deadlock the new norm" in Canadian politics.

Ipsos Reid, outlier once again. What else is new? Two reputable polls, no evidence whatsoever of any Conservative bounce.


RuralSandi said...

I'd rather see a poll after the "afterglow" of the Olympics.

People will come down to earth and get back to the nitty gritty of every day living.

JimmE said...


Did someone say Afghan enquiry ?

Perhaps the Present PM can get his photo taken with a different Olympian each day until the next prorogation?

Steve V said...

Rumor has it that Jon Montgomery will be the new chief of staff ;)

lance said...

Jeebus, have you ever read yourself in context?

Here. Go read what you wrote in August.

Ipsos Reid then: Wacky.
Ipsos Reid Now: Outlier once again. What else is new?

Ipsos then: caught the trend a full poll before _everyone_ else, you belittled it.

Ipsos now: ....who knows, but just given the fact that they made you look like an idiot in recent history would suggest they deserve a little more respect, this time around, no?

Far and Wide used to be one of the two go to liberal blogs. Every since MI got appointed it's just another...yawn.

Steve V said...


Well glad you caught up, because I've ALWAYS found you to be yawn.

Listen, if you want to review the last three elections, you'll see that Oopsos Reid is LAST on accuracy. It's a learned response, based on empirical evidence. Go do the research, I have :)

Just the facts please. You apparently can't handle those. Only a fool puts any stock in an Oopsos poll, unless others are in line.

Steve V said...

Oh, and one other thing, because you're apparently not to bright. That August poll was an outlier, only when the Libs threatened an election did others show similar results. You don't get to take a "before event" finding, then overlap it onto "after the fact" findings and extrapolate that they were ahead of the curve. That's like saying poll G foresaw the prorogation fallout in November. So stupid really, but then again, considering the source....

Steve V said...

Sorry, but this is fun.

There were 9 polls released in August of 2009. 7 of them had a STATISTICAL TIE, 1 had a just outside of error Conservative lead, and one had an 11% point Conservative lead. I would ask anyone to tell me what is the "outlier" of that batch.

The Liberals threatened an election starting in September, AFTER all of these polls. The numbers started to move during the election showdown, when all the pollsters showed a widening gap. Now, yawnasaurus here seems to argue that Ipsos accurately polled events that hadn't happened yet. Goodness me.

Two polls today, one from the most accurate pollster from the past election, both show NO movement for the Conservatives. EKOS last week showed a Con uptick, but GUESS WHAT, the Libs also rose 2%, statistically irrelevant. That leaves Oopsos Reid, who for some reason held their results back for a full week. You do the math, and again, just the facts please, NO BIAS required.

Where I come from, this is called having your ass handed to you :) In spades I might add "idiot".

DL said...

I think that the best that can be said about Ipsos is that a broken clock can be right twice a day.

49 Steps said...

Darrell Bricker does seem to have a problem with the Liberal party doesn't he?

Any guesses to why that is?

Fred from BC said...

Where I come from, this is called having your ass handed to you :) In spades I might add "idiot".

And where I come from, people are usually smart enough to wait for a confirmation poll or two before they commit themselves to a position (as you just did) that could easily make THEM look like the idiots.

Steve V said...

Umm, Freddie, didn't we just have TWO "confirmation" polls today? And, you might have missed the part where I said never infer from Ipsos unless others back it up.

Poot little Con, your fav poll, consistently the least reliable.

Just the facts.

Tof KW said...

....and wait for the rolling Ekos poll tomorrow, it should also confirm a slight lead by the CPC - my guess would be in the 2-3% range. So much for the afterglow. Now back to our preempted parliament, where Harper's numbers will take daily beatings again as Canadians are reminded of his extended Olympic holiday on the taxpayer's dime.

Steve V said...


I wouldn't be shocked in the least if EKOS shows some slight movement. The difference, if you have rather close results from most, and then you have one that suggests on the cusp of majority. Anyone who is being fair should acknowledge...

ottlib said...

Arguing about a post-Olympic bounce for the Conservatives is pointless. Whether it happens or not the Olympics will be old news by this weekend and virtually forgotten by St. Patrick's Day.

If the Conservatives want to make a decision about forcing an election based on such a situation I say all power to them. It will just make their defeat that much sweeter as we see and hear the disbelief amongst them and their supporters.

Proroguation is still topical. An election this soon afterwards is a recipe for Conservative disaster.

The Conservatives would not be so dumb as to try to provoke one would they?

Steve V said...

The EKOS poll is out ;)