Thursday, March 04, 2010

No Bounce

The latest EKOS poll confirms the findings from two other reputable polls(sorry Oopsos), namely no Olympic bounce for the Conservatives, stalled in the low 30's. Week to week, the Conservatives are actually down a point, which is noteworthy, because last week was where our patriotic expression reached crescendo. The latest:
Conservatives: 32.4 (-1.0)
Liberals: 29.4 (-0.9)
NDP: 15.2 (-0.6)
Green: 10.5 (-0.1)
Bloc Quebecois: 9.4 (+1.2) (in Quebec: 37.8 +4.8) )
Other: 3.1 (+1.2)

Undecided: 12.6 (+0.1)

If you look back to the pre-Olympic standings you find the following(pre in brackets):
Cons 32.4%(31.2%)
Libs 29.4%(29%)
NDP 15.2%(15.1%)
Greens 10.5%(9%)

Absolutely no statistical change, numbers virtually stagnant pre and post Olympics. A bit disconcerting for the Conservatives, because this period is probably the most favorable environment they will enjoy. With the return of Parliament, plenty of negative storylines in play, the advantage moves back to the opposition.

EKOS shows the Liberals actually widening their lead in Ontario, which is offset by a curiously large drop in Quebec. Other pollster have shown a slight downward trend in Quebec, so this poll might be capturing that trend. EKOS also shows a deadheat in British Columbia, which is another trend we've seen recently- a particularly poor result for the Conservatives, further evidence that the Olympics had zero impact.

When Graves argued the Liberals would be "crazy" to not force a spring election, it was met with immediate reaction from people like Tim Powers. The attempt to discredit the logic tells me the Conservatives internal polling show a similar risky proposition. Sometimes the reaction is more telling than the suggestion.

For Harper, so many photo ops, so little mileage....

18 comments:

49 Steps said...

That's right

No olympic bounce.

It is only going to get worse,
with all the negative issues now facing the tories.

Is it just me

We had prorogation in order for Steve to recalibrate and refocus for what?

That throne speech yesterday, was just downright embarassing.

Tof KW said...

Well, so all my postings here and there in the blogging world that there would be no Olympic afterglow for the CPofC (all based on past precedent) and the hive-minded Harpernauts telling me I'm full of it ...has come to be. Harper got zilch from the Olympic break.

All bow before my powers of prognostication :)

Though I will never be the pollologist you are Steve, and this coming from someone who is a Pole! ;)

Steve V said...

Good call. Must be fairly disappointing, that despite high profile interviews, watched by a staggering amount of Canadians, it hasn't translated one bit.

I also read today, that the government RAMPED up the Economic Action Plan ads during the Olympics.

J said...

I've been doing 30 day polling averages, with the new ekos poll my results are (difference from pre-olympics in brackets):

CON 32.9(31.9)
LIB 30 (30.9)
NDP 16.3 (15.3)
BQ 9 (9.1)
GRN&OTH 11 (11.4)

Two months ago the average showed the tories at 36-37 so the prorogation knocked them down quite a bit.

BTW follow me on twitter http://twitter.com/cdnpoll I will be constantly updating the average.

Tof KW said...

Not only that, notice how the tone of the EAP commercials has shifted to a real emphasis on tax cuts? The Reformatories are really getting desperate. You are correct Steve, oftentimes the reactions are more telling.

Steve V said...

J

Good stuff. One small caveat, when you include the outlier polls, it doesn't give the best representation. I suspect if you axe Oopsos, your trend is the same as what I've argued (even though it's pretty much the same anyways). At the very least, some weighting, based on past accuracy, is the best way to get a "real" feel. I've always had a problem with giving each poll the same focus, despite empirical evidence that suggests some are more deserving than others. If you truly want accuracy, you must incorporate reliability. Anyways, thanks for that.

Tof KW said...

Even if counting Ipsos, I find it interesting after J averaged things out that the NDP dropped while every other party gained, even if only a little. To be honest I wouldn't have expected that.

Steve V said...

It's telling that Layton's increasing popularity doesn't seem to translate at all.

Curtis said...

"favorable" is "favourable" in Canada.

Ah, the tyranny of US-based software.

DL said...

"Even if counting Ipsos, I find it interesting after J averaged things out that the NDP dropped while every other party gained, even if only a little. To be honest I wouldn't have expected that."

How is going from 15.3 to 16.3 "dropping"?

Tof KW said...

Easy, I mis-read that between the before and after numbers. My error. As I said I would expect the NDP dropping, and also that I'm not the pollologist here (for obvious reasons).

Tof KW said...

I can't type today either ...I originally said "I would not expect the NDP dropping"

Scott Tribe said...

According to a nameless Macleans editor, this Ekos poll shows the Tories have pulled ahead, and the liberals are in trouble.

Huh?

He mustn't follow polls week to week. Anyhow.. I left them a piece of my mind in comments.

MJ said...

There was a bounce in the two days after the gold medal hockey game no? Those two days are still a fairly large sample. Steve has referred to past single day results in past posts.
What you think Scott and Steve?
I'm not sure outright dismissal of any remotely bad numbers is helpful to Liberals at this point. Doing so feeds an impression that Liberals need only sit back and can rest assured we'll maintain numbers within a few points of the Tories. I remember the last screams of outliers the last time the Tories were starting to open a wider gap and yes it all started with an Ipsos poll we all laughed at as implausible. Screaming outlier wasn't helpful then either. Time will tell, maybe I sound too alarmist but I think dismissing Ipsos and the last two days of Ekos outright is unwise.

Gene Rayburn said...

man MJ are you just spamming the same comment across the internet?

Lame...

Steve V said...

MJ

I'll refer to the pollster himself on those last two days:

"“Even if you discount all of the daily stuff as random perturbations the overall story has to be mildly disturbing for the CPC,” Mr. Graves says.

“Here we are on the heels of one of the most feel-good periods in our history, and a concerted, error-free run untainted by the inconvenient probing of the opposition and they end up very close to a statistical dead heat.”


As for these silly references to Ipsos last fall, I don't have any more time for stupid people. Seriously, go read my other comments, it's as clear as day.

I know, I know, you silly Cons are desperate to believe in Ipsos. That's your prerogative, but their record is what it is, simple empirical evidence that has no inherent bias.

It's so whatever from here, live in the dreamworld, it's not my concern.

Steve V said...

Scott

The way people interpret these polls is embarrassing, not to mention amateurish. If you haven't a clue about your subject matter, just shut up.

I'll refer people to last fall, and you'll see I was quite forthcoming about what those polls meant to the Liberals. I posted them, I said they were brutal. Why? Because I'm not particularly interested in lying to myself, the numbers spoke for themselves. In this instance, the numbers haven't moved in three weeks and yet we endure silly "analysis" and conclusions, where none exists.

The story this year is such. Prorogation virtually eliminated the large Con lead. Their numbers have stabilized, the Libs still have trouble getting traction, no one can be certain of anything, so a campaign is unlikely. That's where we're at, nobody has momentum. When that changes, I'll be the first to acknowledge, but I'm not interested in exaggerating shitty polls, or seeing bounces where none exist. The real story here, why there was no significant bounce?

Marpman said...

Of interest was the increase in sports funding in today's budget. I would venture a guess that this was done deliberately, probably at the last minute to fuel the Olympic spirit and gain points. After all, most MPs were warning that funding would not increase in the budget just days before...so it had to be a last minute move for points.
It would be nice to funding for the arts would receive a similar boost...ah well.