Thursday, March 11, 2010

New EKOS

The latest EKOS poll shows a slight narrowing nationally, with the Conservative total down for the second week in a row, although not terribly significant. EKOS does tend to support the earlier Harris Decima poll this week, which showed a noticeable change in British Columbia, margin of error cautions aside. Nationally, last week in brackets:
Cons 31.9%(32.4%)
Libs 29.6%(29.4%)
NDP 16%(15.2%)
Greens 11%(10.5%)

The week prior the Cons were at 33.4%, so you see a slight trend downward trend, from that massive Olympic bounce everybody was buzzing about ;)

Really, a pretty static national total, when you incorporate the regionals, you see either party equally positioned to form government.

EKOS showed a deadheat in British Columbia last week, but this time we see the Cons up 8%, Libs down 7%, NDP down 4%, resulting in a 14.5% lead for the government. Harris Decima also saw a swing in British Columbia towards the Cons, away from the Libs, so it might be something to watch, although "volatile" was the chosen characterization.

Elsewhere in the country, Libs still enjoy a small lead in Ontario, retake the lead in Atlantic Canada and receive a better result in Quebec. Again, the regionals translate to an electoral sawoff, no real advantage for any party.

11 comments:

Jeff Jedras said...

I never really saw the justification for those high BC numbers, so some settling-out seems normal.

Steve V said...

Seems a bit extreme the other way, no? The justification, was more just a microscosm of the national trend in reaction to proroguing.

DL said...

Even in this poll, the Tories at 35% are 10 points below what they got in the last election in BC - that much is pretty consistent in every poll. The volatility is all in the ups and downs of the NDP, Liberal and Green numbers.

Nero Wolfe said...

Cons are polling below their 06/08
levels, in most polls.

A majority for them seems pretty much out of the question, unless something drastic happens.

With these numbers, it is a toss up
who could form a government.

Tof KW said...

With these numbers, it is a toss up who could form a government.

And I think people should expect a lot more of this in the months to come. Short of someone making a really stupid mistake, we're going to see a prolonged period of time where the two front runners will be mired in the low 30's. Should make for a very interesting time on Parliament Hill this spring.

Jeff Jedras said...

I haven't followed every poll religiously, but I saw one a week or two ago that showed a steep, steep incline in the LPC #. So a correction of sorts seems appropriate, given the MOE in those regional #s. I think the trend over a larger period will settle out and give a more relevant picture.

marie said...

Is this a phone poll or an on-line poll? If on line, there are many people who do not have computers let alone answer polls if they have Cps so these numbers could be way out of line.

The only polls I trust are the ones on election day where every age especially seniors who honor the privileges of voting and show up to do this.

Steve V said...

Umm, they pollsters factor in demographics and weight the age groups. This is a telephone survey, but guess which pollster was the most accurate the last election- the online one.

You sound like a silly Con that just wants to believe it's better than it really is. Were you as sceptical last fall? Exactly.

marie said...

You sound like a silly Con that just wants to believe it's better than it really is. Were you as sceptical last fall? Exactly.

Steve, I have never indicated that I am a Con supporter and how you can come to that conclusion with what I have written is beyond me. I like yourself despise the fake party and more so the leader.

I simply asked a credible question and commented on the polls in an election where seniors in general are not fooled by the Cons or Harper and who are also more likely to take the time to vote at the polls and that there are a great deal of seniors that do not own CPs or likely to follow the blogs. Also, in my 40 some years of voting, I have never not ever stayed away from the polls.

If I had to vote for the Reform/Cons for any reason, I would not bother going to the polls at all. Thats how much I dispise those jokers.

Goodbye

Steve V said...

My apologies marie. There is another conbot who uses the same handle. The senior line through me, because generally they vote Con, and show up disporportionately.

marie said...

My apologies marie. There is another conbot who uses the same handle.

Apology accepted Steve but please be a little more careful in the future. There is no way that I will ever confuse them with the progressive Conservatives as the blind sited Con parrots are doing.

BTW,it is not my fault if any one else uses my name to post with.

FYI, the seniors I know are not confusing the Harper Cons either and would probably be voting Liberal and in my province NDP (because they don't seem to ab able to tell the difference between Federal and provincial parties. On a survey I did for Carp (Seniors magazine), results showed that 75% of Seniors who filled in the survey in Ontario would be voting Liberals. So don't let the word senior fool you.

Some people can take the Cons or leave them and I choice to not bother with those crooks at all.

End of story