Tuesday, March 09, 2010

Harris Decima

A new Harris Decima poll gives the Conservatives a slight lead, mostly due to a peculiar change in British Columbia. National results, with last week in brackets:
Cons 33%(31%)
Libs 29%(31%)
NDP 16%(16%)
Greens 11%(12%)

Gregg makes a strange observation relating to British Columbia. Gregg notes no Olympic bounce for the government, with B.C. the possible exception. I agree, the national numbers have moved as a result of this province, but really it's a case of falling Liberal support than any measurable uptick for the Conservatives. British Columbia:
Cons 35%(32%)
Libs 21%(30%)
NDP 25%(24%)
Greens 16%(12%)

A couple of points here. Strange that it's the Greens that actually get the biggest bounce poll to poll, and even that change is marginal at best, given the margin of error. Also, if you look back to the weekly poll before, and the one before that, you'll note the Cons were at 35%. In other words, the trend is a flatline, with minor variations, absolutely no momentum apparent. What is really significant, and this does explain Gregg's focus on the province, the Liberals see a decided drop, which accounts for their national fall. Gregg refers to B.C. as "volatile", and for that reason I'd like to see more polling before rejecting this as one off result(recent trending for all pollsters has actually shown a small Liberal uptick in the last two months).

What is particularly interesting, HD shows the Liberals maintaining their lead in Ontario, Gregg notes strength in the 905:
Libs 39%(38%)
Cons 35%(35%)
NDP 14%(14%)
Greens 10%(12%)

More stable numbers you will not see, and absolutely no "bounce" for the Conservatives. If anything, when you start doing the regional math, this poll is basically an electoral tossup.

HD shows little statistical change in Quebec amongst the federalist parties, but the Bloc rising a full 8% to a commanding 44%.

Atlantic Canada shows significant change, but the margin of error brings the usual caution. It is AC that explains the rest of the national move, with the Libs down 8%, Cons up 8%, NDP down 2%, narrowing the Liberal lead to 4% from the gigantic 15% they enjoyed last week. This type of fluctation is the norm in AC, and nothing from which to draw definitive conclusions.

HD also shows that both the party leaders basically stink in the eyes of Canadians, similar findings to everyone else.

These national results are in line with other pollsters(with the exception of Oopsos), pretty much status quo, electoral sawoff.


ottlib said...

My question is when are the media and pollsters going to begin looking beyond the horserace numbers and begin asking the desire for change question?

Throughout the Martin years the pollsers kept telling us that the Liberals maintained leads of 6-10 points over the Conservatives. However, they also kept telling us that the desire for change was over 50%.

We all know what happened in the election that followed and part of the reason for the result of that election was the constant bombardment of the media saying Canadians wanted change.

I forget which one but one pollster asked that question before Mr. Harper prorogued Parliament and it was sitting at 48%.

I wonder where it is now and I wonder when the media are going to start paying to have that question answered?

Steve V said...

You can submit poll questions to Graves on CBC ;) I'd be curious as well.

DL said...

One thing that people keep forgetting with regard to BC is that in the last election, the Tories took 45% of the vote in BC and that gave them 22 seats out of 36 - whether the Tories are at 32% or 35% - they are wayyyyy down from 45% in BC in virtually every poll and this means they would probably lose about half a dozen seats or more seats there.

At best the Olympics gave them a small dead cat bounce - but their BC numbers have been dismal for a long time.

Marpman said...

BC has always been somewhat volatile. A ways away yet, but we have the HST coming in July and that should hit the Conservatives hard as they are seen as pushing it. It is grossly unpopular.
It would be wonderful to see the LPC win outside of the Lower Mainland, but I see it as unlikely.

Steve V said...


That's a good point. I'm not sure I'm buying this bounce thing, particularly when you numbers are EXACTLY the same as they were prior to the games in the province.


It doesn't appear a ton of seats are really available for the Libs, no matter. Pickup a few best case scenario.