Wednesday, January 03, 2007

Anybody's Election

A new Decima poll:
The Decima Research survey, made available to The Canadian Press, suggests the Conservatives had 34 per cent support, compared with 31 per cent for the Liberals. The survey suggests the NDP had 15 per cent support, the Bloc Quebecois had 10 per cent and the Green party had eight per cent.

The poll gave the Liberals 40 per cent support in Ontario, compared with 35 per cent for the Conservatives, 13 per cent for the NDP and 11 per cent for the Greens. In Quebec, the Bloc had 41 per cent, compared with 27 per cent for the Liberals, 14 per cent for the Tories, 11 per cent for the NDP and five per cent for the Greens. The margins of error are higher for regional samples.

The poll shows the NDP up 3 points since the last Decima poll, while the Liberals and Conservatives have basically exchanged percentages. The Conservatives may have received a small boost, given Harper's year-end interviews, coupled with a benign newscycle.

I heard one commentator argue that the next election will be decided during the campaign. Hardly a unique argument, but given the continued closeness of the two parties, it does suggest any gaff would be critical and discipline is at a premium. Harper ran a great campaign last time out, with tight orchestration, meant to minimize any opportunity for errors. The Liberals had better match Harper's slick organization, because any resemblance to the Martin trainwreck will seal their fate. Dion ran an excellent leadership campaign, tackfully avoiding any minefields, so hopefully he can neutralize Harper's packaging.

As an aside, I'm just getting over the flu from hell, which is why I haven't blogged lately.


Karen said...

Dion did run a great campaign and I particularly liked the fact that he never personally attacked anyone. He remained above the fray and I imagine that is just his style, so I hope to see that again. It will be especially important, I think, if the Conservative's take an opposite tack.

I hope you're feeling better Steve. Flu and cold's always seem worse around the holiday's for some reason.

Steve V said...


It will be interesting to see how the Conservative's run their campaign. The last two elections, Harper basically ran an entirely negative campaign against the Liberals. This tactic resonated because people were genuinely disgusted, but I doubt this approach will work again.

I think it will be a nasty campaign, but Dion is certainly not shy.

Karen said...

Agreed, Dion is not to be underestimated.

I'd like to think that the con's won't try it again, but listening to Baird etal, even Harper, just before the House rose, it sounds like same old, same old.

I do not think the public will buy it though..

Kevrichard said...

So basically the only way the Liberals might win is if they run an amazing campaign. No doubts about the campaigning skills but I'm a bit hesitant if they can get Canadians to pay attention, Canadians have been pretty ignorant of what the Conservatives have been doing over the past year.
The only way the Conservatives will have a chance at winning is with a tax break/incentive laden budget.

Steve V said...

"Canadians have been pretty ignorant of what the Conservatives have been doing over the past year"

I have always believed that voter apathy is part of the government equation. Put on a face and bank on people not bothering to look into the details.

ottlib said...

The poll is only meaningful in the fact it shows the continuence of a trend that has been occuring since the summer.

All of the estimates for the major parties are within the margin of error from the last results. That applies nationally and regionally. That means it is just as likely that the changes from last time are the result of survey error as actual change in support.

All it really means is Canadians have parked their votes until such time as they really have to think about who they will support.

For the Liberals they have been sitting at around 32% +/- 2% for months, with the exception of the predictable post convention bounce. That shows their support is stable.

The Conservatives on the other hand have been steadily decreasing since the summer, from 38% to about 33% +/- 2%. That shows their support is not stable and it is just as likely that they will fall further as regain their pre-summer stride.

For the Dippers, they have also been falling for months showing that their support is soft and unstable.

So at the current time the trends favour the Liberals as they have a stable foundation from which to build their support. The other parties are going to have to worry as much about losing support as gaining it.

Of course, Mr. Dion and the Liberals had better begin to take advantage of this situation because it could begin going the other way. That is why I am kind of disappointed by the silence of Mr. Dion in the New Year. He has to get out their and begin talking to Canadians because the election campaign is on and it has been so for some time.

Anonymous said...

The last two elections, Harper basically ran an entirely negative campaign against the Liberals.

"Soldiers in our streets, with guns. We're not making this up."

I think you've got the wrong parties mixed up there.

Steve V said...


Pretty much agree with everything you said.


Was I talking about the Liberals? Read the first line of the Tory bluebook on "policy". Before any vision is offered, you have the Liberal attack, which to me shows the nucleus of the thought process.

ottlib said...

anonymous 8:45pm:

Politics in this country has been negative for some time.

None of the major parties can claim the high ground, which is probably one reason why more and more Canadians have decided to stop voting.